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Polybius, The Rise of the Roman Empire, trans. Ian Scott-Kilvert (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1979), pp. 41, 44; Tacitus, The Histories, trans. Kenneth Wellesley (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1975), p. 17. [На русском языке: Полибий. Всеобщая история в сорока книгах. Т. II, кн. VI–XXV / Пер. Ф. Мищенко. СПб., Наука, 2005. С. 9; Корнелий Тацит. Сочинения в двух томах. Том II. История / Пер. Г. Кнабе. М., Ладомир, 1993.]
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Michael Puett, «Classical Chinese Historical Thought», in A Companion to Global Historical Thought, ed. Prasenjit Duara, Viren Murthy, and Andrew Sartori (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley, 2014), pp. 34–46. См. также: Edwin O. Reischauer, «The Dynastic Cycle», in The Pattern of Chinese History, ed. John Meskill (Lexington, KY: D. C. Heath, 1965), pp. 31–33.
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Pieter Geyl and Arnold Toynbee, «Can We Know the Pattern of the Past? A Debate», в кн.: Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 308ff. О монументальном труде Тойнби «Постижение истории» (A Study of History), некогда влиятельном, а ныне почти забытом, см.: Arthur Marwick, The Nature of History, 3 rd ed. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1989), pp. 287f.
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A. Korotayev et al., «A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia», Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), p. 289.
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H. Urdal, «People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited», Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (July 2005), p. 430; H. Urdal, «A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence», International Studies Quarterly 50 (September 2006), pp. 617, 624.
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Jack A. Goldstone et al., «A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability», American Journal of Political Science, 54, 1 (January 2010), pp. 190–208. См. также: J. A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).
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Отец и сын (фр.).
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Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., The Cycles of American History (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1986).
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William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2009 [1997]).
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Robert Huebscher, «Neil Howe – The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning», Advisor Perspectives, May 20, 2020, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/20/neil-howe-and-turning.
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См., напр.: W. R. Thompson, «Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 26–57.
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Ian Morris, «The Evolution of War», Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012). См. также: S. Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin, «Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 58–80.
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Qiang Chen, «Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China», School of Economics, Shandong University (October 2012).
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См., напр.: Michael J Storozum et al., «The Collapse of the North Song Dynasty and the AD 1048–1128 Yellow River Floods: Geoarchaeological Evidence from Northern Henan Province, China», Holocene 28, no. 11 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618788682.
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Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), p. 93.
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Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (New York: Plume, 2006), p. 163.
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Peter