18
О точных условиях пари см.: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/. Рис прежде всего был озабочен опасностью биотерроризма, но добавил «биологическую ошибку», подразумевая под ней «нечто, имеющее тот же эффект, что и террористическая атака, но возникшее скорее не из злого умысла, а по неосторожности». Есть некая двусмысленность в том, имеются ли в виду под словом «жертвы» только случаи со смертельным исходом: «В идеале в число жертв следует включить „людей, нуждающихся в госпитализации“ и не включать косвенные смерти, вызванные патогеном».
19
Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020.
20
Для ознакомления: Ferguson, Square and the Tower.
21
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).
22
«South Africa’s ‘Doom Pastor’ Found Guilty of Assault», BBC News, February 9, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43002701.
23
«All unavoided is the doom of destiny». Пер. А. Радловой. Уильям Шекспир. Ричард III. Акт IV, сцена 4.
24
«What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom?» Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Макбет. Акт IV, сцена 1.
25
Nicole Sperling, «‘Contagion,’ Steven Soderbergh’s 2011 Thriller, Is Climbing up the Charts», New York Times, March 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/media/coronavirus-contagion-movie.html.
26
Луи-Фердинанд Селин. Путешествие на край ночи / Пер. Ю. Корнеева. М., 1994.
27
Louis-Ferdinand Céline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 1983 [1934]), p. 14.
28
Marc Bloch, L’étrange défaite: Témoignage écrit en 1940 (Paris: Gallimard, 1997 [1946]).
29
Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2008); Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).
30
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).
31
Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series No. 09–36 (2009), доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.
32
Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic: Studies in Popular Beliefs in Sixteenth and Seventeenth Century England (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1971).
33
Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).
34
Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
35
Henry A. Kissinger, «Decision Making in a Nuclear World» (1963), Henry A. Kissinger papers, Part II, Series I, Yale University Library, mssa.ms.1981/ref25093.
36
Richard Feynman, «What Do You Care What Other People Think?» Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988), pp. 179–184.
37
«House Approves Creation of Committee to Investigate Katrina Response», Voice of America, 31.10.2009, https://www.voanews.com/archive/house-approves-creation-committee-investigate-katrina-response.
38
J. R. Hampton, «The End of Medical History?» Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London 32, no. 4 (1998), pp. 366–375.
39
Larry Brilliant, «My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics», February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.
40
См. в целом: Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, eds., Global Ca tastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).
41
Ricki Harris, «Elon Musk: Humanity Is a Kind of ‘Biological Boot Loader’ for AI», Wired, September 1, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-humanity-biological-boot-loaderai/.
42
Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Гамлет. Акт V, сцена 2.
43
Retirement & Survivors Benefits: Life Expectancy Calculator, Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi; Life Expectancy Calculator, Office for National Statistics (UK), https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/20190607; Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator, https://www.livingto100.com/calculator/age.
44
Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Hannah Ritchie, «Life Expectancy», Our World in Data, 2013, last revised October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.
45
«Mortality Rate, Under5 (Per 1,000 Live Births)», World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT;