Perhaps even more alarming is the high dropout rate from schools which reflects the dynamics of class as well as race. As many as 58 per cent of children who entered the school system in 1998 had dropped out by the time that their fellows had reached Grade 12 in which they took the matric exam in 2009; overwhelmingly, the majority of these will be Africans who will in all probability face a life of unemployment, Meanwhile, parents with money are increasingly turning to private education. For all that the government is strongly committed to addressing backlogs and poor outcomes, its capacity to do so appears limited. Not least of its problems, according to informed commentators, is a demoralised and ill-disciplined teaching profession (notably in schools serving poor black communities), and the overwhelming determination of the South African Democratic Teachers’ Union, the largest teacher trade union, to protect teacher interests at the expense of a more rounded commitment to the educational system.
Protest at incapacity
Recent years have been characterised by numerous and highly publicised protest actions against governments at provincial and local levels, choreographed in much of the media as protests against lack of ‘service delivery’. Far too often for comfort, these have become interlaced with outbursts of popular violence against perceived community outsiders, usually characterised as ‘xenophobia’. In many such cases, violence against persons is compounded with violence against property, often public facilities such as schools, libraries or municipal offices. Protest is therefore often dismissed by officialdom as stoked by malcontents who have oppositional political motives, or by wider society as irrational and primitive. Social protest is, however, a highly complex phenomenon. Amongst the factors that would seem to be involved are feelings of relative deprivation, high levels of inequality within an increasingly consumerist society, the failures of the educational system, high unemployment among blacks (notably young men), a lack of entrepreneurship and capital among South African black urban dwellers which is often visibly exposed by more successful foreign migrants, resentments against perceived corruption in government, and the lack of accountability of politicians and arrogance of officials. Lack of regard for the law (in significant part an inheritance of apartheid) combined with inadequate law enforcement creates a context in which protests often turn violent, a tendency fuelled by resort to violent methods of crowd control by the police. In turn, violent protests are themselves a collective manifestation of the wider violence in South African society, reflective of the lack of social coherence in a society still highly divided along lines of class, race, ethnicity, gender and geography (Bruce below; RSA 2009b).
Tales about the failures of provincial governments and municipalities to deliver services and of a decline in standards are legion, and are often interspersed with indications of considerable corruption and cronyism. Such narratives represent more than post-colonial melancholy, for there is evidence enough that all is not as it should be: for instance, provincial and municipal delivery failure is often matched by inability to spend annual budgets. Numerous municipalities, including some metros, are effectively bankrupt and in total financial disarray. Nonetheless, although there is substantial indication of incompetence and incapacity at levels of government which most immediately affect ordinary citizens, there is simultaneously clear evidence of substantial improvements in the access of poorer communities and households to services ranging from housing to running water and electricity. In addition, through its social grants network, the government now contributes the greatest single source of income to a third of all African households, while as much as a quarter of the population receives monthly grants from the state (Cronje 2009). So why, we may ask, are the poor so damned ungrateful?
The answer is beyond disaggregation here. However, what it adds up to is a striking loss of the ANC’s authority and control over society – especially over the working class – and an emergent underclass of deprived and unemployed South Africans.
Hitherto, the revolt of the underprivileged has not taken a coherent political form (although Zuma’s rise to power, backed by majority elements within Cosatu and the SACP, undoubtedly had a significant class dimension). However, ironically, analysts of both the left (Pillay 2009) and the right (Cronje 2009) combine in projecting a strong possibility of growing levels of protest leading to Cosatu and the SACP breaking with the Alliance and linking up with social movements to threaten the ANC’s political hegemony. This is scarcely the prospect envisaged by white capital in 1994. Nor is any resulting scenario – an erosion of governmental control of the townships akin to the NP’s experience in the 1980s; growing anti-capitalist protest and class warfare culminating in an electoral victory of a new left party over the ANC; or continuing rule by the ANC, but with reduced moral and political authority and greater reliance on patronage and coercion – promising to the continued survival of a ‘reform bargain’, especially one increasingly reliant upon infusions of foreign investment.
SLIDE TOWARDS MEDIOCRITY?
There is need to maintain perspective. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index for 2009/10, South Africa performed relatively well in a context of global economic crisis.9 South Africa was rated the 45th most competitive country out of 134 internationally, the highest rated country in Africa. Furthermore, South Africa jumped to 5th place overall with regard to trust in its banking system, and came in at 24th regarding intellectual property protection, 5th for accountability of private institutions, and 36th for business sophistication. Likewise, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, South Africa was identified as the fourth most favoured site for investment amongst sixty-six ‘emerging markets’. In other words, the economy is internationally regarded as having considerable strengths, and will doubtless continue to be regarded as a gateway to the wider continent. In addition, South Africa remains a major player internationally in terms of its mining industry, and demand for its mineral resources will be sustained by global demand for commodities, especially from China.
Overall, therefore, it would be absurd to suggest that South Africa is about to undergo an apocalyptic decline. However, it can be argued that the country could be on the verge of a long-term descent towards mediocrity, largely because of issues of governance (political and economic) and human development. Worryingly, South Africa is slipping in terms of international rankings concerning corruption (55th out of 180 rated by the WEF in 2009, one place lower than a year earlier)10