To Ibrahim and Panday he said, “Successfully leading consensus-building efforts has been the hallmark of my career and Mauritius’s reputation. My involvement in this secret effort, even if successful, could permanently damage my credibility and my government’s if the facts ever emerged. I need to think over this proposal.”
Doyal remained deeply doubtful. His judgment was that their three small countries could not accomplish anything beyond talk. Ibrahim is too young to recognize the extremely low probability of success, he thought, and the unavoidable danger in having conspired to set up this secret, unauthorized project, whether or not it succeeds.
At the same time, working with them, and inevitably a few others if we can recruit them in the attempt, would have the political advantage of earning me some markers for future use. And if by chance the effort is productive, it could show the kind of bold leadership that would help propel me upward as a leadership candidate.
Through his participation in AOSIS, Doyal had learned a great deal about the theoretical research into climate intervention and SRM. He agreed that a chemical stratospheric veil was the only reversible geoengineering technique that could plausibly be undertaken by a small number of states acting unilaterally.
He also agreed with what Ibrahim described as the inherent “chicken-and-egg” dilemma: The most ideal quantities and types of chemicals for these purposes have not been determined, but as Dr. Hartquist’s articles and speeches explained, the general effect of various materials can be predicted. She believed existing knowledge is sufficient to minimize the risks of unanticipated and irreversible climate damage. She was convinced that humanity must begin large-scale experiments, leading directly to an operational program in the immediate future. Her metaphor of the drowning man was compelling. The combination of research and action in otherwise hopeless cases is what medical doctors have done for centuries.
Professor Feith, a climate expert at Stanford University, had also concluded that with a handful of planes, a base from which to fly, and the necessary materials, the learning process could begin. At the same time, it might in some small degree reduce the pace of global warming. Creating a planetary veil isn’t a fantasy like CCS (carbon capture and sequestration), which at best would require many billions in infrastructure investments to upgrade thousands of carbon-generating industrial facilities.
The consensus in the knowledgeable scientific community was that the only way to learn more is to begin seeding the tropopause with experimental levels of various candidate chemicals and measuring the effects. Any experiment entails the risk that well-intentioned but mistaken actions will do harm. But many island peoples are facing certain destruction from the current trajectory.
The practical obstacle was to find and mobilize sufficient resources to execute a coherent SRM program.
Setting aside these larger policy issues, the three diplomats proceeded to a discussion of the intrinsic risks of broaching the subject with representatives of other states.
Panday remained very nervous about the danger of involving more diplomats in the project. “Rather than just saying ‘no, not interested,’ someone might reveal our effort prematurely, undermining it before it can get off the ground. Worse, we might lose control of the project to others who would skew it to favor their own interests. These are very real hazards.”
But without sufficient financial or physical resources of their own, they saw no choice but to take this risk if the project were to go forward. Keeping those considerations in mind, they carefully reviewed the list of other AOSIS members to see who might be persuaded, capable, and trusted to contribute money or other resources to the effort.
Ibrahim, of course, had already given this matter some thought. “Only a handful of AOSIS states have even some of the financial, technical, and logistical resources to contribute meaningfully to the project. The primary candidates for financial support are the members with larger economies—Singapore, Cuba, Bahamas, and the Dominican Republic.”
“Singapore is the most obvious source of funding,” Ibrahim observed. “They can afford it most easily, and they could quietly provide the funds without public knowledge or protest. I suggest we start there. I’m not sure either the Bahamas or the Dominican Republic actually have the ability to provide the necessary financial resources on a confidential basis.”
Panday stared uneasily into the distance. “I don’t know. Singapore is becoming an unstable democracy these days, with an election coming that could change everything there. I wonder if the government could hide this activity from the aggressive new opposition party. If the transactions are disguised as some sort of economic development project, the opposition might stumble across it and start looking around for corruption and self-dealing. Once they find out where the money went, even if there’s no evidence of anyone lining their pockets, they will attack Prime Minister Li for this risky, unauthorized use of government funds.
“Although I find the current Cuban regime distasteful, my neighbor has a history of providing both funds and military equipment for its revolutionary projects around the world without accounting to anyone. That’s my suggestion.”
Fearing his plan would be derailed, Ibrahim interjected, “Do either of you know anyone from Cuba we could approach? I don’t.”
Panday slumped in his chair. He had never cultivated any relationship with anyone in the Cuban government. The US would never have approved Trinidad & Tobago building a close relationship with its communist neighbor.
Doyal sat silent through this discussion. At this point, he was unwilling to get more deeply involved in this plot. Reading his impassive face, Ibrahim didn’t even ask.
After what seemed like an interminable silence, Ibrahim spoke. “I don’t know anyone from Cuba either. So that leaves us with Singapore. I do know Wang Shu, the AOSIS Delegate from Singapore. I worked with her when she served as Singapore’s UNESCO Delegate,” he added, hoping that fact would arouse Doyal’s interest in meeting her. “She knows our issues and shares our strong views on addressing global warming. I suggest we meet with her tomorrow, here in Phuket.”
Panday suddenly felt rushed. “How do we know that this woman will keep your idea secret? If she tells the media about our rogue initiative, it will be buried in UN reviews and die a slow, painful death over the next five years!”
“And so will we renegades,” Doyal added with a smile.
Ibrahim responded calmly, despite his growing frustration with his colleagues. “I agree the risks you see are real, but there’s no way to avoid them if we want to go forward. We will face the same risk of exposure from anyone we talk to. Right now, we are all here, and Wang is too. I think she’s an honorable diplomat and civil servant. If we ask her to keep our conversation secret, I’m confident she will. If she says no, we’ll just have to start over.”
Panday tried again. “So are we left with Singapore and this young woman, Wang Shu? That’s it? No other suggestions?” He paused, looking at Doyal, who still had not spoken.
Doyal still remained silent, declining the implicit invitation to take part in any decision.
“What about Brunei?” Panday offered, grasping at straws. “The Sultan has more money than he knows what to do with, and there is no public governmental process to entangle him or us.”
Ibrahim quickly dispatched that possibility. “Brunei’s wealth depends solely on its oil and gas resources, generating about $10 billion annually. That’s a lot for its five hundred thousand people, but the $10 billion we need would take a big bite out of Brunei’s wealth. And I haven’t seen Brunei expressing any concern about climate change, beyond signing the Paris Accords along with everyone else. I think the sultan is a sure no.”
Lacking any alternative except to abandon the effort, Panday conceded. “Well, Ibrahim, I guess we’ll try your Singapore friend. I hope you are right about her reliability.”
“I’m