Panday was pleased to discern Ibrahim’s realism, though a little apprehensive about being characterized as part of Ibrahim’s “circle” at this stage. He still had reservations. But he reassured himself, At least Ibrahim realizes that carefully exploring the possibilities for this wild idea is not the same thing as rushing headlong into it. “Circle” sounds too much like a conspiracy to me. I’ll need to make sure I have opportunities to call a halt if it seems to be getting too dangerous.
“Do you know Doyal?” Panday asked.
“Not well. But Mauritius is as endangered as our countries, and he has lots of connections around the world. I think he would be valuable to the effort.”
“Yes, he has contacts everywhere,” Panday replied. “but you should be aware that he has great ambitions, perhaps UNESCO Director-General or Deputy Foreign Minister back home. He’s unlikely to risk those possibilities to promote your unorthodox scheme.”
“That’s why I need your help,” Ibrahim responded. “Can we meet with him to discuss this matter at dinner this evening? Would you like to invite him, or should I?”
Panday saw through Ibrahim’s effort to tie him into advocating the project. “I think you should call him. I’m not entirely committed yet myself.”
“That’s fine. I’ll propose 7 p.m. at Lotus, around the corner.”
Panday nodded, still uncomfortable. They finished the last of their tea, paid for lunch, and ambled back to their hotel chatting about inconsequential matters and enjoying the pleasant sunny weather and the panorama of green hills, white beaches, and blue-green ocean waters.
Chapter 6
Phuket
Doyal accepted Ibrahim’s invitation for dinner with him and Panday without hesitation. He liked and respected them both. Reinforcing connections with other AOSIS delegates was always worthwhile. Besides, he was looking for votes in UNESCO. And he was intrigued by Ibrahim’s call, which somehow seemed formal and premeditated, despite the short notice.
At this moment, global warming was a high priority for Doyal. Rising seas threatened both his country and his career, as he knew well. He had been Mauritius’ Delegate to the biennial meetings of the Conference of Parties under the UN Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change for over a decade before the 2015 Paris Conference, and he played an instrumental role in securing the adoption of the Paris Accords.
But saving his country required much more, especially given the damage done by the US withdrawal from the Accords in 2019. He was looking for innovative ideas to reverse the deteriorating political will to act.
At dinner, Ibrahim obtained Doyal’s commitment to secrecy, repeated the arguments for secret, unilateral action, and sketched the scheme he had presented to Panday. Doyal was more openly resistant than Panday. “Wouldn’t this secret SRM project be a violation of the UN Charter and general principles of international law?” he asked. “You can’t expect me to help you with anything that runs contrary to international law. Our small states exist in reliance on it.”
Ibrahim had already quickly researched the legal questions, and he offered his answers.
I appreciate your concerns. Let me respond to that question on several levels. I believe Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which recognizes “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence” justifies unilateral action in our situation. While Article 51 speaks to defense against an “armed attack,” this “inherent right” surely includes the right to act when the very existence of a group of states is being threatened by the increasingly destructive environmental behavior of the world’s advanced powers.
Many states are taking modest defensive steps unilaterally. For example, the Netherlands is building more sea walls to protect Amsterdam and other valuable coastal areas. No other state objects on legal grounds, even though the construction may have adverse impacts on breeding grounds for shared fisheries. And many countries conduct weather modification programs that inevitably affect other states without seeking any international approval or supervision, or even reporting the activities or results.
I concede that there are some international agreements and pronouncements that seem to point in the opposite direction. The 1977 Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques prohibits damaging climate manipulation for military or hostile purposes. Various International Court of Justice decisions and other pronouncements assert international legal liability for transboundary environmental harm. And the Conventions on ocean pollution provide an analogy to atmospheric pollution.
But the reality is that our people are the victims of violation of these concepts by others right now, and this action on our part would in fact be a form of remediation in response to the damage done by them.
“I see your point,” Doyal responded. He conceded to himself that Ibrahim’s legal argument was plausible as a theoretical matter. But he also knew that opponents of the project would vehemently disagree, arguing that unilaterally creating an SRM veil, whatever its purpose or goals, is an intentional invasion of their sovereignty that would justify their own unilateral action in response.
“So, forgetting the legal arguments, what makes you think you can find money or physical support for this effort? Our countries don’t have the resources. And what about our disregard for international due process and consensus? We’re not exactly Great Powers who can throw their weight around, thanks to their economic and military capabilities. Hardly a week goes by that we aren’t admonishing some Great Power for acting unilaterally in disregard of international rules and procedures.”
Panday remained silent, leaving Ibrahim to address this question as well. He had supported Ibrahim’s arguments on the desperate need for the project, but that was as far as he was willing to go at this point. He was not convinced about the legality of unilateral action. He was still reserving his decision on the viability of Ibrahim’s plan.
Ibrahim, fully aware that he alone must defend the rationale for this project, responded carefully to Doyal’s objection. “I don’t know if we can find the resources, but I believe we must try. Some AOSIS Members, and some other threatened States, have either the financial resources or the physical capabilities, or both, to implement this plan. It’s actually quite small-scale in the grand scheme of things, certainly less than $10 billion, involving about a dozen ordinary commercial planes, modified to carry out the mission. Some large countries spend that much on defense every month.
“The obstacle is political will, not resources. I share your commitments to consensus, law, and due process in international relations. It’s the only security for our tiny States. But the danger of irreversible climate change is too urgent to ignore. Dr. Hartquist explained the realities in her speech to the AOSIS Conference last year. That’s why I’m asking you and Panday to join me. I need the judgment and gravitas you two would bring to the effort to obtain the necessary resources.
“As I see it, our first task is to identify the right targets and generate the political willingness to try something real, to get beyond the hand-wringing and ineffectual warnings. The first step is to find the money, then the logistical base. Is there a better way to proceed?”
Ibrahim was trying not to sound inflexible. He really did welcome their insights, and he hoped to focus their thinking on specific next steps, rather than the feasibility of the whole effort.
Doyal had listened carefully to the arguments, weighing the merits of the idea in the abstract. His mind rapidly evaluated the risks and benefits to his country and to his own career.
Whatever the law, it would be dangerous to get entangled in a subversive conspiracy that could affect the entire world without some sort of international approval. The last thing Mauritius, and I personally, need is a scandal that involves bypassing all the established global mechanisms for transparency and consensus. Why would a diplomat willing to take such a step be an acceptable candidate for a high-ranking position in an international organization