Generally speaking, as the final result of the war remains unknown, so at least now and for China, the consequences of the trading wars are not all bad; for U.S. they are not all good. This is the third difference.
North Korea denuclearization
As North Korean missile and nuclear development have realized great achievements, the Trump Administration is determined to resolve issues with it. Trump is different from former Presidents in agreeing to hold a summit with the North Korean paramount leader.
In the General Election 2016, Donald Trump hoped that China could help to resolve the Korean Peninsular crisis.38 Since Trump became U.S. President in 2017, he gradually founded a working relation with Chinese President Xi Jinping with regard to Korean Peninsular affairs.39 With the collaboration of China, South Korea and Singapore, U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un held a historical summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.40
Denuclearizing North Korea offers a historical chance for regional cooperation. For furthering the denuclearization, regional cooperation is still needed. Also, the ever-present tensions over the Korean Peninsula have decreased to some extent. This is the fourth difference.
Conclusions on the transition
Occurring since 2017, the transition of U.S. strategy and policies toward the region shows us that U.S.–China competition is still in progress.
Objectively speaking, the transition has positive changes for China. The Indo-Pacific strategy is less competitive than the rebalance strategy; the threat of TPP has gone; the final consequence of the trading war is still something that should be judged in the long term, but China gains the historical chance to improve relations with regional countries; for denuclearizing North Korea, U.S. may have to do business with China.
The positive changes would benefit China and its competition with U.S. That which is positive for China is the negative for U.S. It would increase the cost and difficulty for U.S. in the competition with China.
Chinese Dual-track Strategy to Compete with U.S.
For China, rising in the competition with U.S. would be a long-term trend. In dealing with the American competitive challenges, China adopts a dual-track strategy. On the one hand, China restrains itself and collaborates with U.S. On the one hand, China takes countermeasures to compete with U.S.
Self-restraint and collaboration with U.S.
Peaceful rising has been the Chinese strategy for a long time. Chinese diplomacy with U.S. should serve as the strategy, and the tensions of its competition with U.S. should remain at a reasonable level. In short, China could restrain itself according to the specific situations in the U.S.–China competition. At the same time, if historical chances could be offered, China could manage to collaborate with U.S.
(1)China restrained itself in the South China Sea. China’s artificial islands in the Sea shocked U.S., Japan, Australia, Singapore and Aquino III Philippines. They united to pressurize China.41 China made concessions. On August 5, 2015, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi revealed that Beijing had halted land reclamation in the Sea.42
As U.S. patrolled the waters near the Chinese artificial islands in the Sea, the Chinese military restrained itself even when the U.S. touched its red line, which had been set before. In 2015, the Vice Chairman of PRC’s Central Military Commission, Fan Changlong, told 10 ASEAN defense ministers “we will never recklessly resort to the use of force, even on issues of sovereignty, and have done our utmost to avoid unexpected conflicts.”43 When the U.S. Lassen destroyer came, only two Chinese warships were sent to shadow Lassen.
(2)China showed peaceful intentions. China tried to reassure U.S. and others by making clear its peaceful intention. In 2016, at the Opening Ceremony of the B20 Summit of G20 Hangzhou, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the Summit “I wish to stress that the new mechanisms and initiatives launched by China are not intended to reinvent the wheels or target any other country. Rather, they aim to complement and improve the current international mechanisms to achieve win–win cooperation and common development. China’s opening drive is not a one-man show. Rather, it is an invitation open to all. It is a pursuit not to establish China’s own sphere of influence, but to support common development of all countries.”44
(3)China collaborates with U.S. in denuclearizing North Korea. China is the most important ally of North Korea. North Korea deeply depends on China for its economy and security. Facing the Korean Peninsular Crisis and frequent U.S. demands, China has been collaborating with the U.S. in North Korean denuclearization. In UN Security Council, China and U.S. hold productive dialogues in passing many moves to sanction North Korea45; China is a positive mediator to make possible direct dialogues between U.S. and North Korea. It also helped to hold a summit between the U.S. President Trump and the North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on June 12, 2018; China proposed a practical initiative to defuse the Korean Peninsular Crisis. On March 8, 2017, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed “double suspension” to defuse the crisis: North Korea may suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale U.S.–South Korea military exercises.46 After the Singapore summit, the U.S. agreed to indefinitely suspend the expensive military exercises that it had begun with South Korea to provoke North Korea.47
Chinese countermeasures
As a rising state, only restraining itself combined with collaboration with U.S. are not enough for China to deal with the hegemonic state of U.S. As the U.S. efforts to balance toward the region progress as usual, China has prepared the following countermeasures to compete with U.S. in the region:
(1)China urged regional countries not to take sides. The stances of regional countries were important in the U.S.–China competition. If other regional countries involved themselves in the competition and took the side of the U.S., it would increase cost and difficulty for China to compete with the U.S. China hoped they could be neutral along with the states in dispute with China.
Facing Japan’s push for a Statement of G7 Japan 2016 about the issues of the South China Sea, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei said that “on the issue of South China Sea ... outsiders should stay neutral and objective instead of taking sides ... we are dissatisfied with Japan’s push for discussions on the issue of South China Sea at the Summit.”48
Australian foreign minister Bishop warned China that its reputation would suffer if it ignored the result of the Arbitration.49 Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang said that “we are firmly opposed to these remarks … Australia is not a party to South China Sea dispute. It should stick to its promise of not taking sides on disputes over territorial sovereignty.”50
(2)China managed to win regional support. The support of regional countries was important for China to counteract the united pressure of U.S. and U.S. allies. By diplomatic shuttles, China achieved regional support for its stance on regional affairs.
On May 24, 2016, in a statement of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, all member states supported the Chinese stance on the issues of South China Sea.51 On June 9, 2016, Chinese and Russian warships sailed into the waters of Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.52
On September 4, 2016, China and Russia held talks during the G20 Summit 2016. The two countries reiterated that it is inappropriate for a third party to meddle in other countries’ affairs.53 On September 12, China and Russia held “Joint-Sea 2016” naval exercise in South China Sea.54
(3)China proposed many initiatives to divert U.S. attention in the region. China