In recent years, journalists’ and opposition political activists’ fear of detention has also spurred emigration from other authoritarian-leaning countries, such as Venezuela, Turkey, and Cuba. Typically, people who are pushed away from countries because of political conditions choose to migrate to countries with strong pull forces of democracy, protection of individual rights, and the rule of law, such as Western Europe, Canada, and the United States.
Refugees are a specific type of social or political migrant. The United Nations 1951 Refugee Convention defines a refugee as a person who, “owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to, or owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.” Per international law, the legal rights of refugees are different from the rights of those who are migrating for economic or other reasons. Therefore, most countries have systems for evaluating refugee claims and admitting those deemed to fit the definition.
In the United States, for instance, refugee status has been given to Cubans facing political persecution under the communist Castro regime, Christians and Jews fleeing the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Iraqis and Afghans who assisted the US military.
Around 2014 to 2016, Europe faced one of the largest refugee migration flows since World War II. Because of conflict in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, large numbers of people started migrating in search of asylum (figure 3.18). Over one million immigrants crossed the Mediterranean Sea, with the majority arriving in Greece, followed by Italy. The journey proved fatal for thousands, as smugglers sent them in overcrowded boats of questionable quality. In one single incident, over 800 people drowned when a boat sank while crossing from Libya on its way to Italy. Hundreds of thousands more have attempted to take land routes through Turkey and Eastern Europe in attempts to reach countries such as Germany and Sweden. While the majority of the refugees were from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq, people from other parts of Southwest Asia and Africa also immigrated. Syrians were given priority for refugee status because of a brutal civil war, while most others faced rejection as economic migrants.
Figure 3.18.Refugee flows to Europe. Refugees on an overcrowded raft arriving at Lesvos, Greece; refugees in Hungary making their way to Germany. Greece photo by Anjo Kan. Stock photo ID: 390513937. Shutterstock. Hungary photo by Istvan Csak. Stock photo ID: 385009378. Shutterstock.
But while news reports in the West often focus on refugees immigrating to Europe and North America, the vast majority of refugees, 86 percent, reside in developing countries (figure 3.19), largely due to the concept of distance decay discussed in chapter 1. Given that there is more spatial interaction between two places that are close together, it is most likely that refugees facing push forces in developing countries will migrate to another developing country nearby. Life for refugees in developing countries can be difficult. Developing countries do not have large sources of revenue to assist those in need and strong economies to absorb many immigrants. Sometimes, the United Nations assists with funding refugee camps, but often there are many more refugees than space in the camps. Too often, adults lack jobs and children lack schools. In 2016, one estimate showed that 80 percent of Syrian children in Turkey did not attend school. Often, children must work to support their families, with some working twelve-hour days for US $60 in weekly wages. Unable to fully integrate into host countries and unable to return to their home countries, many refugees remain in precarious positions for years, leaving children with limited education and limited opportunities for the future.
Figure 3.19.Number of refugees per country in 2015. Despite news reports in the United States and Europe that show resistance to accepting refugees, the vast majority are found in developing countries. Data source: UNHCR.
Environmental push and pull
In addition to the economic, social and cultural, and political push and pull forces directly caused by humans, environmental conditions drive migration. In the most benign form of environmental push and pull, people can be pushed away from areas with uncomfortable climates and pulled to places with pleasant climates. For instance, since the 1970s, population growth in the US southern and western Sun Belt states has increased at a faster rate than in the Snow Belt states of New England and the Midwest.
But the environment can also cause migration for more serious reasons. Natural disasters can drive people away, as in the case of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (figure 3.20). Because of that natural disaster, over 200,000 people moved out of New Orleans after 80 percent of the city was flooded. Many people who left never returned. By 2014, the city’s population had nearly recovered, as some emigres returned and new residents moved in, but it remained somewhat below pre-hurricane levels nevertheless.
Droughts and resultant crop failure and famine can also push people to migrate. For example, during nearly a decade in the 1930s, drought conditions in the Plains states created the Dust Bowl, which forced millions of people to move to other parts of the United States.
While refugees fall under the social and political migrant categories, internally displaced migrants are more broadly defined as including those displaced by armed conflict, human rights violations, and natural disasters. Those who are internally displaced have not crossed an international border, yet have been pushed away from their regular place of residence.
The severity of internal displacement caused by natural disasters relates to a society’s degree of vulnerability. Vulnerability is the level of susceptibility to harm people have when exposed to a disaster. At the individual scale, this relates to characteristics such as income, age, mobility, and gender. For example, the poor and elderly may be more vulnerable to harm when displaced by an earthquake, as they struggle more than others to obtain food and shelter.
Figure 3.20.Natural disaster and migration. Hurricane Katrina damage in the 9th Ward of New Orleans. Massive flooding from Hurricane Katrina pushed many to emigrate from New Orleans. Photo by Patricia Marroquin. Stock photo ID: 3638784. Shutterstock.
Vulnerability also varies at smaller scales, such as by country. Countries differ on a range of factors, such as political stability, level of economic development, and more. A society will be more vulnerable to natural disasters, such as drought, when it is intertwined with poverty, political instability, and armed conflict. For instance, both Afghanistan and South Sudan had over one million internally displaced people in 2015 due to both armed conflict and drought conditions, while Ethiopia had nearly 300,000 (figure 3.21). All of these countries are poor, with governments that lack resources to end conflict and improve agricultural infrastructure.
When armed conflict and natural disasters occur in the same place, internal displacement can be much more severe. In some cases, drought worsens or causes armed conflict. In the case of Ethiopia in 2015, drought conditions led pastoralists to move livestock onto lands traditionally use by pastoralists from different tribes. This led to armed conflict between tribes over increasingly limited pasture land for their livestock.
Figure 3.21.Internal displacement. Families in South Sudan gather to collect water. South Sudan’s internally displaced population was well over one million in 2015. Photo by Paskee. Stock photo ID: 176894750. Shutterstock.
In other cases, armed conflict can worsen impacts from drought, leading to or exasperating internal displacement. During conflict, food and agricultural aid may not be able to reach people in conflict zones. This lack of aid can force many of them to move to new areas.
Residents of richer countries, such as the United States, are less vulnerable overall when disaster strikes. More people have insurance that can help cover losses from floods and fires, while the US government