I admired the way in which he had stood up for due process at the time of the Khemlani Affair, in the Whitlam years. He was tough and cunning and a firm believer in the independent sanctity, if I can put it that way, of the federal bureaucracy and most particularly the Treasury. His minutes were succinctly and strongly written. For all that he no doubt had the view that Treasurers came and went but the Treasury went on forever, I always thought he would give me advice that he believed was in the national interest. He was also a heavy smoker, and that suited me at the time because I was still addicted to the habit.
John Stone, who took over from Wheeler in 1979, was the brightest public servant with whom I ever dealt. That did not automatically make him the best, because, on occasions, his judgements did not match the purity of his intellectual arguments. He nevertheless held resolutely to all of the conclusions that he reached, and was quite uncompromising in the advice which he offered to his minister. Some ministers were nervous when I proposed appointing Stone head of Treasury, because they thought he was too doctrinaire in his economic thinking. My attitude was that people should be appointed to senior public service positions on merit. Passing over Stone would have been to deny that fundamental principle.
Early in April 1979, not long after Stone had been appointed secretary, Fraser asked Stone if he would prepare a memorandum of advice for an incoming Conservative Government in Britain, as to what should be done to fix their ailing economy. Fraser wanted to give it to Lord Peter Carrington, who was to see Fraser in Canberra. He was an old friend of Australia, and became Thatcher’s first Foreign Secretary, staying in the post until the Falklands War.
Thirty years on, the Stone memo makes fascinating reading. For example, he wrote, ‘Meanwhile union power has become a threat not merely to economic stability, but to civil liberties and the very concept of the rule of law upon which the British society has been founded and of which it has been for so long such a notable exemplar.’1 The full memo appears as an appendix to this book.
Thatcher visited Canberra, very briefly, not long after her election in May 1979. She had been at a G7 meeting in Tokyo and came to Australia, ostensibly to discuss the situation in Rhodesia in advance of the Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOGM) meeting in Lusaka. During her brief visit Mrs Thatcher attended a cabinet meeting, giving an uncompromising outline of what she intended to do in her own country. After she had left, quite a number of my colleagues were rather sceptical about some of her intentions, asserting that she was unrealistic. They had underestimated her.
I had badly needed expert advice on economic issues during the election campaign, as the Treasury had to maintain a certain distance during the caretaker period embracing the campaign.
This is when I met John Hewson. Already a professor of economics although only in his early 30s, John Hewson had had an impressive career at the Reserve Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He had joined Phillip Lynch’s staff on a part-time basis, and worked closely with another economics professor, John Rose, who worked, also on a part-time basis, in Fraser’s office. They were a real tandem. They provided joint advice to the Prime Minister and the Treasurer, especially on monetary policy issues. I liked John a lot. He gave good advice on most economic issues and was taken by the political atmosphere. In the changeover from Lynch to me, he had glided almost effortlessly from one office to the other.
Tension would develop between the senior people in the department and John early on. The top officials in the Treasury resented the degree to which both Fraser and I listened to private office advisors.
At this time the relationship between the minister, his private office advisors and his department was undergoing significant change. Ten years earlier, somebody like John Hewson would not have existed in the Australian political system. All of the principal policy advisors in a minister’s office came from the relevant department. If non-departmental advice were taken, it was overtly taken from someone who was not on the minister’s staff.
My five years as federal Treasurer were to change profoundly my opinions on many aspects of managing the Australian economy. When I became Treasurer I was unaware of the extent to which the Australian financial system was in need of deregulation, and although generally aware of the negative impact of across-the-board wage rises granted by the Conciliation and Arbitration Commission, I did not see the issue as one requiring freeing of the labour market. Rather I adhered to the conventional view at the time that the commission should be encouraged to deliver different wage judgements. I did not then realise that fundamental change to the system was required.
I believed that the Whitlam Government had spent far too much and that a big part of my responsibility as Treasurer was to reduce the rate of growth in government spending. I also thought the Australian taxation system needed to be reformed. However, I underestimated the enormity of the task involved in bringing about change in that area.
I was to have successes and failures. In 1978 the idea I floated of introducing a retail turnover tax collapsed, as a policy initiative, fairly quickly after an onslaught from Australian retailers and some very unhelpful comments from one of my colleagues, Bob Ellicott. He used the platform of a Sunday evening address at the Wayside Chapel in Sydney to say that the Government should abandon the whole idea because it was causing disquiet in sections of the business community. Although I had been right, in a pure policy sense, to raise the issue, I had been extremely naïve in the way in which I had gone about it. As I learned from that, you need time to build the case for change by explaining, in detail, the shortcomings of the existing system.
* * *
Decisions and promises from the first term of the Fraser Government preoccupied my early months as Treasurer. Treasury told me, shortly after the election, that the 1977 budget revenue estimates would not be realised. This was due to the average weekly earnings issue, already mentioned, as well as early predictions of expenditure over-runs. So from the beginning of 1978, it became increasingly apparent that my first budget would be extremely difficult. Australia still had a large budget deficit, although Lynch had made an impact on this in his first two budgets, and inflation, despite having fallen, was still quite high. Very unpopular decisions would be required if a significant reduction in the budget deficit were to be achieved.
Then there were the interest-rate predictions made by both Malcolm Fraser and Doug Anthony during the election campaign. Interest rates in Australia at that time were high, and financial institutions within the traditional banking sector were still tightly regulated. Fraser and Anthony predicted during the campaign that interest rates would fall by 2 per cent during the next term of office. Fraser said in the campaign, ‘Falls in important interest rates could add up to a total of 2 per cent within 12 months.’ Doug Anthony said that if interest rates did not fall by 2 per cent he would eat his hat. The statements were not only wildly optimistic, but also politically unnecessary.
At that time, bank lending and borrowing rates were subject to controls administered by the Reserve Bank. All savings bank housing loans and overdraft or business loans under $100,000 were caught by the controls. But the Government effectively decided those rates because, in administering the controls, the Reserve Bank normally reflected the views of the Monetary Policy Committee of cabinet. That committee met regularly, was chaired by Fraser, and as well as me as Treasurer, included Doug Anthony, Ian Sinclair and Peter Nixon plus Phillip Lynch and Reg Withers. The secretary of the Treasury and the Reserve Bank governor normally attended its meetings.
Thirty years on, this may sound an interventionist system, but it was not until the election of my Government in 1996 that the bank was given full independence to set interest rates. Although there was some early success on the interest-rate front in 1978, with a small reduction, there was never any hope that that 2 per cent prediction could be realised. Increasingly, monetary conditions ran in the opposite direction.
From the beginning, the interest-rate issue caused a lot of tension between the PM, the RBA and me. Fraser felt that the bank was dragging its feet on cutting rates. This was nonsense. He should never have made such a specific prediction in the campaign. I was caught in the middle. The Monetary Policy Committee once talked about invoking section 11 of the Banking Act, which enables the Government to direct