Trend 3: The Digitization of Energy
This final trend goes hand in hand with the first two. The future of the energy sector will involve smart, decentralized grids that can understand which houses and buildings need energy at which time. With the energy being produced by an increasing variety of zero-carbon sources, technology will play an essential role in managing these complex energy networks of the future.
What do we mean by digital transformation?
To realize this vision of smarter, more diverse energy grids, we need intelligent devices and technology that: a) help us communicate with the grid so demand can be monitored and managed, and b) help us all reduce our energy consumption. I briefly alluded to some examples in the previous section, but let's see what else is involved in the digitization of energy (many of which are key tech mega-trends covered in the previous chapter). Together, these digital solutions have given rise to the term Energy 4.0, a play on Industry 4.0 or the fourth industrial revolution that I referred to at the start of Chapter 2.
AI and predictive analytics : These are used to analyze and predict demand, adjust where power is drawn from on distributed grids, and predict equipment failures. GE, for example, uses AI to predict failures ahead of time at wind and solar plants.17
The Internet of Things: In particular, the use of smart home thermostats and home energy management systems such as Google Nest is helping consumers cut their energy usage and heat their homes more efficiently.
Blockchain: From secure, smart contracts to facilitating distributed networks, blockchain could be a transformative technology for the energy sector. In one example, Turkish startup Blok-Z's blockchain technology enables anyone to access economical, transparent and traceable green electricity.
Quantum computing: The sheer power of quantum computers is ideally suited to solving the unique and vast challenges facing the energy sector. As an example, US-based startup QC Ware provides quantum computing solutions to help optimize energy use (including energy prediction and demand management).
Digital twins: A digital twin is an advanced digital duplicate of a real-life object, system, or process. By using information gathered from IoT sensors in the real world, organizations can model changes and try them out in the digital twin without making expensive or high-risk alterations to the real-life counterpart. BP, for example, uses digital twins to model new oil field production.18 In another example, MHPS-TOMONI's digital twin technology can create a virtual replica of a power plant or even an entire grid.19
As that last example suggests, these technologies don't just apply to innovative decentralized energy grids and renewable sources. Even with traditional, centralized operators, digital innovation can help energy providers cope with uncertainty, make better decisions, and improve efficiency in an increasingly competitive field. According to McKinsey, energy companies that have invested in digital innovation have seen up to 10 percent improvements in production and yield, and up to 30 percent improvements in costs.20
Overcoming the challenges
So far, these digital technologies haven't been fully exploited by the energy sector. Finding the value from digital can prove tricky, particularly for traditional energy companies who can be slow to change.
Largely this is because energy providers face some unique complications, such as health and safety risks, the large amount of capital invested in existing assets (such as power plants, pipelines, and offshore platforms), and the capabilities of frontline workers (who are often operating in remote or hard-to-reach locations). What's more, many oil and gas companies are entrenched in an engineering mindset – which tends to favor caution, in-depth planning, and a “right first time” approach – versus the flexible, agile, fast-moving mindset that digital transformation often requires.
Many sectors are coping with similar challenges, but the energy sector must contend with them all at the same time, which makes digital adoption not impossible, but certainly challenging.
PRACTICAL LESSONS
In this chapter, we've learned:
It is vital that energy companies, policymakers, regulators, public bodies, city planners, and local authorities work to advance these three trends in unison. This is essential for meeting our future economic and energy needs, while mitigating the climate crisis.
Outside of the energy sector, all business leaders can learn from the opportunities and challenges faced by energy providers. Identifying emerging technologies to incorporate into your business, accelerating digital change, dealing with competition from emerging startups, and coping with market fragmentation are things that many businesses can identify with.
In particular, the need to commit to digital transformation is common to all industries. In my experience, COVID-19 provides an unprecedented window to accelerate this, as companies and their employees were forced to accelerate digital adoption in a very short space of time. The trick is to not slide back into normalcy when the pandemic is over, but to use it as a springboard to continuous change and evolution.
Finally, for business leaders looking to learn from these energy trends, perhaps the biggest takeaway is not to delay. Taking early action is a critical part of gaining a competitive advantage.
Now let's turn to another long-established sector that is undergoing rapid change driven by technology: healthcare.
Notes
1 1. 5 technologies changing the future of renewable energy; Wartsila; https://www.wartsila.com/insights/article/5-technologies-changing-the-future-of-renewable-energy
2 2. What is U.S electricity generation by energy source?; U.S. Energy Information Administration; https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
3 3. Renewable energy could power the world by 2050. Here's what that future might look like; World Economic Forum; https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/renewable-energy-future-carbon-emissions/
4 4. The biggest energy challenges facing humanity; BBC; https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170313-the-biggest-energy-challenges-facing-humanity