In themselves these events need not have led to disaster. If the guardian of Honorius and director of his government had been a man of Roman birth and tradition, who commanded the public confidence, a man such as Honorius himself was afterwards to find in Constantius and his successor in Aetius, all might have been tolerably well. But there was a point of weakness in the Imperial system, the practice of elevating Germans to the highest posts of command in the army. It had grown up under Valentinian I, Gratian, and Theodosius; it had led to the rebellion of Maximus, and had cost Valentinian II his life. The German in whom Theodosius reposed his confidence and who assumed the control of affairs on his death probably believed that he was serving Rome faithfully, but it was a singular misfortune that at a critical moment when the Empire had to be defended not only against Germans without but against a German nation which had penetrated inside, the responsibility should have devolved upon a German. Stilicho did not intend to be a traitor, but his policy was as calamitous as if he had planned deliberate treachery. For it meant civil war. The dissatisfaction of the Romans in the West was expressed in the rebellion of Constantine, the successor of Maximus, and if Stilicho had had his way the soldiers of Honorius and of Arcadius would have been killing one another for the possession of Illyricum. When he died the mischief was done; Goths had Italy at their mercy, Gaul and Spain were overrun by other peoples. His Roman successors could not undo the results of events which need never have happened.
The supremacy of a Stilicho was due to the fact that the defence of the Empire had come to depend on the enrolment of barbarians, in large numbers, in the army, and that it was necessary to render the service attractive to them by the prospect of power and wealth. This was, of course, a consequence of the decline in military spirit, and of depopulation, in the old civilised Mediterranean countries. The Germans in high command had been useful, but the dangers involved in the policy had been shown in the cases of Merobaudes and Arbogastes. Yet this policy need not have led to the dismemberment of the Empire, and but for that series of chances its western provinces would not have been converted, as and when they were, into German kingdoms. It may be said that a German penetration of western Europe must ultimately have come about. But even if that were certain, it might have happened in another way, at a later time, more gradually, and with less violence. The point of the present contention is that Rome’s loss of her provinces in the fifth century was not an “inevitable effect of any of those features which have been rightly or wrongly described as causes or consequences of her general ‘decline.’ ” The central fact that Rome could not dispense with the help of barbarians for her wars (gentium barbararum auxilio indigemus) may be held to be the cause of her calamities, but it was a weakness which might have continued to be far short of fatal but for the sequence of contingencies pointed out above.
CHAPTER X: LEO I AND RICIMER’S RULE IN ITALY
§ 1. Leo I (A.D. 457-474)
IT was always a critical moment when an Emperor died without a designated successor or a member of his family marked out to claim the diadem. Theodosius I had created his sons Augusti; Arcadius had co-opted his infant son; Theodosius II had designated Marcian as his successor just before his death, and Marcian’s title was sealed by his marriage with the Augusta Pulcheria. On Marcian’s death the Theodosian dynasty had come to an end, and the choice of a new Emperor rested with the army and the Senate. There was one obvious candidate, Anthemius, who was the grandson of the great Praetorian Prefect and had married Marcian’s daughter Euphemia. He had held the office of Master of Soldiers in Illyricum, and had been consul in A.D. 455. But Marcian had not designated him as his successor, and though the Senate perhaps would have liked to elect him,1 he was not favoured by the man of most authority in the army, the patrician Aspar, who with his father Ardaburius had distinguished himself thirty-five years before in the suppression of the usurper John. Being an Arian, as well as a barbarian, he could not hope to wear the Imperial diadem; the only course open to his ambition was to secure the elevation of one on whose pliancy he might count. He chose Leo, a native of Dacia and an orthodox Christian, who was tribune of the Mattiarii,2 a legion belonging to the troops which were under the control of a Master of Soldiers in praesenti. Aspar doubtless held this post, as Leo was his domesticus. The Senate was unable to reject the general’s nominee and (on February 7) Leo was crowned at the Palace of Hebdomon. As there was no Augustus or Augusta to perform the ceremony of coronation, this duty was assigned to the Patriarch Anatolius, who had perhaps taken some part in the coronation of Marcian.3 We have a contemporary description of the ceremonies connected with Leo’s elevation, though the act of crowning is passed over.
The senators and officials, the Scholarian guards, the troops which were present in the capital, and the Patriarch gathered at the Campus in the Hebdomon. The military insignia, the labara and the standards, lay on the ground. All began to cry, “Hear, O God, we call upon thee. Leo will be Emperor. The public weal demands Leo. The army demands Leo. The palace expects Leo. This is the wish of the palace, the army, and the Senate.” Then Leo ascended the tribunal or raised platform, and a chain was placed on his head, and another in his right hand, by officers.4 Immediately the labara were collected, and all cried: “Leo Augustus, thou conquerest!5 God gave thee, God will keep thee. A long reign! God will protect the Christian Empire.” Then the Candidati closed round him and held their locked shields over his head. At this stage he must have retired into the palace where he put on the Imperial robes and the actual coronation was performed.6 He came forth again bearing the diadem, and was adored by all the officials, in order of precedence. Then he took a shield and spear and was acclaimed anew. When the cries ceased, he replied, through the mouth of the magister a libellis,7 in the following words:
“Imperator8 Caesar Leo, Victorious, Ever August (saith): Almighty God and your choice, most valiant fellow-soldiers, elected me Emperor of the Roman State.” All: “Leo Augustus, thou conquerest. He who chose thee will keep thee. God will protect his choice.” Leo: “Ye shall have me as your master and ruler, who shared the toils which as your fellow-soldier I learned to bear with you.” All: “Our good fortune! The army accepts thee as Emperor, O conqueror. We all desire thee.” Leo: “I have decided what donatives I shall give to the troops.” All: “Pious and powerful and wise!” Leo: “To inaugurate my sacred and fortunate reign, I will give five nomismata [about £3] and a pound of silver to each shield.”9 All: “Pious, lavish! Author of honour, author of riches! May thy reign be fortunate, a golden age!” Leo: “God be with us!” Then a procession was formed, and the Emperor returned to the city where more ceremonies awaited him.10
The danger which had threatened the Empire in the reign of Arcadius through the power of Gaïnas and his German faction was now repeated, though perhaps in a less openly menacing shape, and the interest and importance of Leo’s reign lie in the struggle for ascendancy between the foreign and native powers in the State. To have averted this peril was Leo’s one achievement. The position of Aspar, who, though an Alan and not a German, represented the German interest,11 was extremely strong. He was Master of Soldiers in praesenti, and his son Ardaburius was, if not already, at least soon after Leo’s accession, Master of Soldiers in the East.12 The Emperor, however, whom Aspar hoped to use as a puppet, soon showed that he had a will of his own and would not be as amenable to his general’s dictation as he had led the general to expect. But, though differences arose13 and Aspar was unable always to have his own way, yet for at least six or seven years his influence was predominant. Leo had made two promises, to raise Aspar’s son Patricius to the rank of Caesar,14 thereby designating him as successor to the throne, and to give the Caesar one of his daughters in marriage.15 The second arrangement could probably not be carried out immediately because the girl was too young, and Leo managed to postpone the fulfilment of the first. In the meantime he discovered a means of establishing a counterpoise to the excessive influence of the Germans.
In order to neutralise the fact on which Aspar’s power rested, namely that the bulk and the flower of the army consisted of Germans and foreigners —