The plan was received with general enthusiasm, and when it came up for adoption it went through with a veritable whoop. Indeed, within a few moments after its official acceptance, which took place in Oil City on October 24, $200,000 worth of stock was taken, and less than two weeks later it was announced that more than the desired million dollars had been subscribed, that the trustees and officers had been elected, and that the agency was ready for work. For the first time in the history of the oil business the producers were united in an organisation, which, if carried out, would regulate the production of oil to something like the demand for it, would prevent stocks from falling into the hands of speculators, and would provide a strong front to any combination with monopolistic tendencies. Only one thing was necessary now to make the producer a fitting opponent to his natural enemy, the refiner. That thing was loyalty to the agency he had established. The future of the producer at that moment was in his own hand. Would he stick? By every sign he would. He thought so himself. He had acted so resolutely and intelligently up to this point that even Mr. Rockefeller seems to have thought so.
During the entire three months that the producers had been organising, the refiners had been making divers overtures to them. In August several of the refiners sought certain of the big producers and privately proposed a two-headed combination which should handle the whole business, from drilling to exportation. The proposition they made was most alluring to men suffering from low prices. "Carry out your plans to limit your production and guarantee to sell only to us," said Mr. Rockefeller's representative, "and we will give you four dollars a barrel for your oil. We will also establish a sliding scale, and for every cent a gallon that refined oil advances we will give you twenty-five cents more on your barrel of crude. The market price of crude oil, when this offer was made, was hovering around three dollars. "How," asked the producer, "can you do this?" "We expect, by means of our combination, to get a rebate of seventy-five cents a barrel," was the answer. "But the railroads have signed an agreement to give no rebates," objected the producers.
"As if the railroads ever kept an agreement," answered the worldly-wise refiners. "Somebody will get the rebates. It is the way the railroads do business. If it is to be anybody, we propose it shall be our combination." Now it was clear enough to the men approached that the great body of their association would never go into any scheme based on rebates, and they said so. The refiners saw no disadvantage in that fact. "We don't want all the producers. We only want the big ones. The small producer under our arrangement must die, as the small refiner must." The proposition never got beyond the conference chamber. It was too cynical. Several conferences of the same nature took place later between representatives of the two interests, but nothing came of them. The two associations were kept apart by the natural antagonism of their ideals and their policy. Captain Hasson and his followers were working on an organisation which aimed to protect the weakest as well as the strongest; which welcomed everybody who cared to come into the business; which encouraged competition and discountenanced any sort of special privilege. Mr. Rockefeller and his associates proposed to save the strong and eliminate the weak, to limit the membership to those who came in now, to prevent competition by securing exclusive privileges. Their program was cold-blooded, but it must be confessed that it showed a much firmer grasp on the commercial practices of the day, and a much deeper knowledge of human nature as it operates in business, than that of the producers.
The formation of the Producers' Agency brought the refiners back to the Oil Regions in greater earnest than ever. The success of that organisation gave them an active antagonist, one which, as it held the raw material, could at any time actually shut up their refineries by withholding oil. The vigour, the ability, the determination the new organisation had displayed made it a serious threat to the domination Mr. Rockefeller and his associates had dreamed. It must be placated. On November 8, immediately after it was announced that the entire million dollars' worth of stock was taken, an agent of the Standard Oil Company in Oil City was ordered to buy oil from the agency — 6,000 barrels of oil at $4.75 a barrel — and the order was followed by this telegram from Mr. Rockefeller:
"It has been represented to us that if we would buy of the producers' agent at Oil City and pay $4.75 per barrel, they would maintain the price. We are willing to go farther and buy only of the producers' agent, hence the order we have given you. See Hasson and others and let there be a fair understanding on this point. We will do all in our power to maintain prices, and continue to buy, provided our position is fully understood. We do this to convince producers of our sincerity, and to assist in establishing the market."
A more adroit move could not have been made at this moment. This purchase was a demonstration that the Refiners' Association could and would pay the price the producers asked; that they asked nothing better, in fact, than to ally themselves with the agency. The events of the next three weeks, on the contrary, showed the agency that it would be some time before anybody else would pay them any such price as that Mr. Rockefeller promised. The reason was evident enough. In spite of the stopping of the drill, in spite of the thirty days' shut-down, production was increasing. Indeed, the runs 30 for November were greater than they had ever been in any single month since the beginning of the oil business. A large number of wells under way when the drill was stopped had "come in big." New territory had been opened up by unexpected wildcats. The shut-down had done less than was expected to decrease stocks. It was evident that the Producers' Association had a long and severe task before it to bring the crude output down to anything like the demand. Could the great body of producers be depended upon to take still further measures to lesson their production, and at the same time would they hold their oil until the agency had the mastery of the situation? Their tanks were overflowing. Many of them were in debt and depending on their sales to meet their obligations — even to meet their daily personal expenses. It was little wonder that they grew restive as they began to realise that the agency in which they had seen immediate salvation from all their ills could only be made effective by months more of self-sacrifice, of agitation, of persistent effort from every man of them. With every day they became more impatient of the bonds the agency had set for them, and the leaders soon realised that some immediate tangible results must be given the mass of oil men, or there was danger of a stampede.
A strong feature of the genius of John D. Rockefeller has always been his recognition of the critical moment for action in complicated situations. He saw it now, and his representatives again came to the creek seeking an alliance. Their arguments, as they found their way from the private meetings into the press and the street, ran something like this: "Our combination is the only big buyer. We are in the thing to stay, and shall remain the only big buyer. You might erect refineries and oppose us, but it would take months, and while you are waiting how are you going to hold the producers? You cannot do it. We can easily get all the oil we want to-day at our own price from the men who sell from necessity, and yet your agency is in the first flush of enthusiasm. Sell only to us and we will buy 15,000 barrels a day from you. Refuse an alliance with us and you will fail."
Overwhelmed by the length and severity of the struggle before them if they insisted on independence, fearful lest the scattered and restless producers could not be held much longer, convinced by their confident arguments that the refiners could keep their promise, the council finally agreed to a plan of union which the Derrick dubbed the "Treaty of Titusville." A terrible hubbub followed the announcement that a treaty was proposed and would probably be adopted by the association. The same old arguments which had greeted each overture from the refiners were gone over again. It would be a monopoly. The price they offered for crude depended upon their getting an unnaturally high price for refined. The markets of the world would refuse to pay this price when it was discovered that it was kept up by an agreement which was contrary to the laws of supply and demand. And, besides, the parties could not trust each other. "Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes. Liberal translation — Mind your eye when the Cleveland refiners get generous," cautioned the Derrick. As always, the ghost of the South Improvement Company was between them. On the other hand, it was argued that it was Hobson's choice, "combine or bust," there is no other market. We cannot wait for one. We have a million barrels of oil on hand — the refiners will take 15,000 barrels a day for "spot cash." And after all, concluded the"philosophical," if you can't do as well as you want to, do the best you can.