The next important period was the global crisis of 2007–2008 when it became clear that the four cycles were headed toward an implosion, an ending that would give way to new cycles. It was during this crisis that the inequality and injustices of the system rose to the surface, along with the strong support of many voters for populist governments.
In 2007, the first iPhone was released; Facebook went from a university social network to a platform for the general public; Twitter hit the market. But the critical year was 2008 when all these networks began to grow exponentially and increase their hourly daily usage, which began to weaken real connections in favor of digital ones. This led to the epidemic of loneliness that lies at the center of the cycle of the human spirit. Also, that same year, renewable energies became increasingly viable from an economic standpoint and started to be mass-produced, sparking interest among the public. For the first time, people understood that it was possible to end the era of fossil fuels once and for all.
These four cycles share two factors: they will implode during the decade of 2020 and they will be accelerated by the effects of the pandemic. The years 2020–2030 are already poised as the Decade of Turbulence.
The shift in cycles can either be a gradual and relatively peaceful process or an arduous and even violent one. The cycle of increased inequality exposed by the pandemic will evolve into a cycle of greater equality during this decade or the start of the next. This will happen either through the rebuilding of the meritocracy alongside liberal governments or by populist governments. But in either case, the shift will be inevitable. It may be through democratic processes or by demonstrations and riots as we saw in France with the yellow vests movement; in Chile, following the increase in the price of public transport; and in the United States, after the murder of George Floyd.
In terms of the cycle of mother nature, climate change is entering a critical stage and the decade of 2020 will be our last chance to strongly reduce emissions if we want to avoid an increase in temperatures with potentially catastrophic effects. The cycle of technology is running out. The benefits of the Cold War’s major scientific developments –the microchip, the internet, GPS, among a wide array of other technologies– will become obsolete during the decade of 2020 and the next. This could slow down the rate of progress unless new technologies appear to drive a new cycle.
These cycles are interconnected. The cycle of technology combined with overpopulation precipitated the most recent cycle of inequality. Without new technologies, it will be very hard to stop climate change at the speed our planet requires. If we do not address climate change, it will be even more difficult to reduce inequality in a context of droughts, food scarcity, and extreme climate events. And without a new cycle of meritocracy and reduction of inequality, we cannot achieve a new cycle of the human spirit.
All the energy of the pandemials fuels these four cycles. Their strong sense of morality and ethics does not tolerate the high levels of inequality caused by an agonizing meritocracy. Their strong ecological awareness, which reflects a humanist view of nature and a strong concern over the imminent environmental catastrophe, makes them highly active on all issues related to climate change. Their high capacity to adapt to technology accelerates the technological cycle while also driving the crisis of the human spirit through the creation of virtual communities that weaken physical connections.
To understand the turbulence we will experience during the coming decade, we will need to understand how these cycles work. They are a warning sign which gives us the chance to decide what we want as a human species and to demand public policies that will assure our desired future.
The Uprising of the Pandemials is the young, revitalizing energy that must be channeled through the ideological and pragmatic foundation of liberalism to enforce these policies and prevent the future depicted in Years and Years.
THE CYCLE OF INEQUALITY
In his book “Supermarket USA: Food and Power in the Cold War Farms Race,” Shane Hamilton explains how American propagandists viewed supermarkets as ideological weapons during the Cold War. The image of the American family strolling down the aisles of well-stocked shelves of food products at affordable prices, loading their groceries in the car, and living in a nice house with a yard in the suburbs traveled around the world. It was a clear display of the advantages of American capitalism and liberal democracy. Only capitalism could offer this standard of living to its entire population, as opposed to the authoritarianism and the chronic scarcity of communist countries. This image was the basis of the anti-communist propaganda throughout the 40 years of the Cold War. (3)
The end of World War II and the dawn of the Cold War gave way to a worldwide battle between two paradigms. Capitalism was no longer the only option. A competitor emerged born out of Russia and it began to spread through eastern Europe, China, North Korea, Vietnam, and Cuba. And so, a bipolar world was born, in which each side needed to prove to its citizens and humankind that its model was superior. The solution found by Western governments was to accelerate the process of expansion of public education and healthcare, in addition to other social programs launched after the crisis of 1930. In Europe, this was represented by the welfare state that emerged in the post-war era. In the United States, this solution was represented by Lyndon B. Johnson and his “War on Poverty” and concept of a “Great Society.” The goal was a happy public to keep Soviet totalitarianism far from their citizens.
THE MIDDLE-CLASS PARADISE
To be a middle-class family meant being able to buy a house, own a car, eat out once a week, go on vacation every year, and send your kids to college. The middle class was living proof of the success of capitalism and liberal states. Property was inexpensive. Young people had access to a quality university education without having to take on unpayable debt. There was quality, accessible healthcare. All these goods and services make up the meritocracy basket and were the basis of this prosperity. It was a happy world where those who worked hard could access the benefits of the system. Between 1946 and 1980, the total income in America grew 95%. For middle-class Americans, these were the best years in the country’s history. During this period, after-tax income grew by a whopping 129% for half of the population with the lowest incomes. (4) This was the golden age for the middle class, not only in the United States but in most of the developed world.
Middle classes woke abruptly from this sweet dream in the early 1980s. On one hand, stalled incomes; on the other, a rise in the price of certain goods and services, rendering them less accessible. The technological revolution and automation had created stagnancy in the incomes of many workers. The after-tax income of the bottom half of Americans grew by 21% between 1980 and 2014, as opposed to the 113% increase for the top 10%. (5) Between 1980 and 2020, the American economy tripled and its GDP per capita practically doubled. (6) Globally, these have been excellent years for the economy, although the distribution of benefits has been highly uneven.
The cycle of economic prosperity that started after World War II reached its end in the early 1980s, but the increases in debt levels avoided its collapse. It did not affect the baby boomers, who had already purchased their homes and secure their pensions, with a state that covered their medical expenses. They had no need to protest. Nor did their children, who were born in the 1970s: they had acquired relatively reasonable