1.2.2.Implications and Responses
The second section looks at a few aspects and country experiences as implications and local and regional responses to China’s rise in mainland ASEAN. This section posits that as China’s growing influence continues, it will also change the former practices of strategy or human mobility, as well as China and India’s influences from a comparative perspective.
Starting with Myanmar and China in his chapter, “China’s Rising Influence in Myanmar: Implications, Responses, and Future Strategy,” Aung Kyaw argues that both have enjoyed close and friendly relationships for a long time. China protected Myanmar from international pressure throughout the military dictatorship period. China also rose to become the top investor and trading partner with Myanmar. At the same time, anti-Chinese sentiment in Myanmar has also increased due to the exploitation of Myanmar’s national resources by the Chinese people, particularly in the timber and jade sectors, as well as socially irresponsible behavior in mining and hydropower projects, support to an unpopular military government, and abuse of power by Chinese merchants in border trade relationships. The two countries’ relationship was hampered after the suspension of Myit-sone Dam project. However, China’s desire to build a relationship with Myanmar as a strategic partner has not been destroyed. The partners’ relationship was strengthened again after Daw Aung San Su Kyi’s party won election.
China’s influence on Myanmar was further increased after the Rakhine incidents in 2017. After these incidents, China’s political backing to Myanmar became very important. China is also an important mediator in peace talks between the Myanmar government and ethnic armed groups. Based on this complex influence, the China–Myanmar economic corridor has been agreed upon to implement infrastructure, seaports, industrial zones, and pipeline links, which may improve the local economy within a short period. With increasing Chinese investment flows, China needs to protect its investment interests in Myanmar, and the two countries’ military cooperation for border security tends to be increasing. On the other hand, Myanmar needs to protect its national sovereignty and take care not to fall into the trap of Chinese debt book diplomacy, so that both countries can reap mutual benefits through improving relations with equality and mutual respect.
Anupama Devendrakumar in her chapter, “Contemporary Economic Influences of China and India in Mainland ASEAN: Comparative Perspectives,” looks at the unprecedented rise of China’s influence in the mainland ASEAN countries in their domestic economic, political, and social spheres in contemporary times. The rapid growth of China’s influence in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar is not only shaping their growth prospects but also defining the consequent welfare implications. China’s rising influence has far-reaching repercussions for ASEAN’s sovereignty and its collective identity. China’s evolving economic standing, foreign policy, and regional agenda, driven by her political thoughts, have significant implications for the present and future regional order. To balance China’s influence in the region, the ASEAN member countries desire and anticipate India’s increased participation and an active strategic role within Southeast Asia. However, to what extent is India able to exert her influence in mainland ASEAN? What are the limitations? How can India reimagine her future regional engagement? These are the key questions that the chapter attempts to answer. The contributions of the chapter include: a comparative assessment of contemporary economic influence of China and India in mainland ASEAN, identification of limitations to the prospects of expansion of India’s role in the region, and a discussion of how India can reimagine her engagement with ASEAN in a mutually beneficial way in the face of China’s rising influence in the region.
Supang Chantavanich in her chapter, “China’s Rising Influence in Thailand: Translocal Human Mobility and Its Impact,” underlines that China, in the 21st century, is adopting a policy of global outbound investment accompanied by massive mobility of its people in the Greater Mekong sub-region. Its National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2010–2015 emphasized the aspects of Chinese mobility and overseas investment, with support from national and provincial governments, as well as the reduction of complicated foreign trade and investment regulations and financial support to encourage investors. The BRI confirms China’s outbound policy. In Thailand, tourists, university students, and traders/investors are the more obvious Chinese groups of the population, and almost 10 million Chinese tourists visited Thailand in 2018. Students, much fewer in number, choose to enroll mainly in the field of business administration. Traders/investors enter as businessmen showing their presence in the Thai economy through many immigration crossing channels. With recent increased connectivity in the CLMV countries and the North–South economic corridor, Chinese migrants have been moving quite conveniently to Thailand, despite entry visa requirements.
In two communities of Bangkok and Chiang Rai in the North of Thailand, the prevalence of new Chinese arrivals, semi-settlement in the vicinity, and vigorous economic activities can be observed. Intermarriage with local people and cooperation with networks of Thai trade nominees are common practices. Private business, especially import and export, is the most popular type of trade. As such, China’s rising influence in Thailand now can be seen and felt in the economic, political/legal, and the sociocultural spheres. Local responses are reflected in the various measures to facilitate the positive impact and to curb the negative ones. The arrival of Chinese tourists is warmly welcomed while the flows of irregular immigrants are monitored with limited achievements. Legal amendments and introductions of the new Beneficial Ownership Act to control the use of trade nominees constitute some of the measures. After centuries of past successful integration of overseas Chinese into Thai society, the country is relearning to live with the new forceful “Xin-Yi-Min,” whose patterns of mobility differ significantly from those in the previous waves.
1.2.3.Perspectives on Trade, Investment, and External Debt
The third section deals with current aspects of trade, investment, and external debt in selected countries that have come to cope with such issues with China. To begin with, Tuan Pham’s chapter, “The Increasing Reliance of Vietnam on China’s Economy: Causes and Impacts,” looks at economic relationships between Vietnam and China, since the mid-2000s, which have blossomed as economic exchange between the two countries have rapidly grown in almost all sectors. In between, China has become Vietnam’s biggest trading partner as well as an important destination for Vietnamese exports. As of 2017, trade volume between the two countries had reached US$93.69 billion, accounting for 22% of Vietnam’s total trade value, the highest among the ASEAN countries. However, these growing economic ties have also heightened the reliance of the Vietnamese economy on China in various sectors, from agriculture to manufacturing and services. This chapter examines the increase of such reliance, its causes, and impact on the bilateral partnership, particularly under the BRI.
Nguyễn Văn Chính and Ðinh Thị Thanh Huyền, in their chapter, “Vietnam — China Economic Cooperation: Aid or Burden?” analyze China’s foreign aid to developing as controversial affairs. Recent studies tend to suggest that flows of aid from China are not based on the need of the receiving countries but motivated by its national interest, and these flows of aid are often used as a tool to advance its political interests. A different perspective, however, believes that China’s aid is welcomed as an alternative to Western donors, particularly because it is not based on bureaucratic procedures with detailed policy conditionality. While the debate is going on, there are, however, quite a few studies that look at China’s aid from local and empirical levels. This chapter examines the scope, types, allocation, and conditions of China’s aid to Vietnam since the normalization of relationship between the two countries in 1991. The analysis in this chapter aims to explore the characteristics and nature of China’s aid as well as the impact of this aid flow to the development of Vietnam in the context of recent political and economic relations between the two countries. The findings indicate that China’s aid to Vietnam represent the political–economic cooperation between the two, based on its preferred diplomacy model G-to-G while P-to-P diplomacy was ignored until recent years. Aid flows from China have changed from “politics first” motivations to a combination of political strategies and economic gains. In its nature, China’s aid could be the convergence of