The big question is: Will those changes be on our terms, or other terms? With each passing year that the human race ignores or delays action, the answer being ‘other terms’ continue to increase.
Okay, thank you for sticking with us this far. Take a deep breath and let out whatever tension you are carrying. Here’s where it all comes together.
THE THREE ES
Now you know why we believe that all three Es must be viewed at once. They’re so interconnected we can’t simply address one without impacting the others. So to the extent that central bankers are busy pulling monetary levers while ignoring the trends in the environment and energy sectors is the extent to which they are making grave errors.
Add up all the Three Es and you see we have:
1. an economy that must expand, connected to
2. an energy system that cannot expand, all wrapped up in
3. an environment that is both being depleted of resources and saturated with pollutants.
The inescapable conclusion to all this? Things are going to change. Big time.
At Peak Prosperity, we remind ourselves with the punchline: The next 20 years are going to be completely unlike the past 20 years. Never before has humanity had to deal with such a massive set of intertwined predicaments (problems have solutions; predicaments only have outcomes that need to be prepared for). We simply don’t have any relevant history to inform our decision-making here.
This means we can’t count on the cavalry to ride to our rescue and make these issues disappear. That’s just not going to happen given the number and scope of the challenges we face. Instead we, as individuals, are each going to need to prepare for a very different and quite possibly turbulent future.
Our old habits and assumptions will conspire to steer us wrong in most cases. But by focusing on developing resilience, we can dramatically increase our chances of mastering whatever rules the coming future will require us to live by.
In short, it’s time to get ready. That’s where the rest of this book comes in.
RESILIENCE: WHAT IS IT, EXACTLY?
The main theme of this book is that resilience is the key to prosperity. We like this word because it covers a lot of territory, but it can mean a lot of different things to different people depending on their age, location, wealth, or health. So it’s worth taking a moment to define what we mean by ‘resilience’ in order to make sure we share a common understanding.
The Oxford dictionary definition offers a good place to start:
re·sil·ience
noun
1. the ability of a substance or object to spring back into shape; elasticity.
2. the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness.
We all know people who are able to bounce back quickly from illness and others who aren’t. This is an example of resilience in health. But resilience also applies to nearly every aspect of our lives: to an investment portfolio, a home, a garden, a career, or a personal relationship.
Each of these things is said to be more resilient if it is able to weather stormy times (literally or figuratively) well.
To the textbook definition we can also add the concept of redundancy. Nature teaches us that resilience means having multiple ways of meeting any particular need.
Laying several eggs in a nest instead of just one is an example of resilience through redundancy. So is the demonstrated ability of Central Park squirrels to eat anything from acorns to cheese popcorn to hot dogs as compared to the giant panda which can only eat one food type, bamboo. Squirrels breed rapidly, pandas rarely. You might have noticed, there are a lot more squirrels than pandas in the world.
Similarly, wetlands can absorb a lot more water than a concrete ditch because wetlands have untold crevices and layers of spongy material. They act as a natural backup water storage system for storing the rains when they come.
Extending nature’s cue to our home, we note that having several methods and systems involved in heating and cooling your house makes you more resilient because you’re able to switch across energy fuel types if one becomes scarce or expensive. As an example, you could heat with gas, wood, and passive solar design, and cool with A/C and better window shades. Even better, reduce your need for heating and cooling by investing in thicker insulation throughout your home. With a hybrid system like this, you’ll spend less over the long haul and be able to more easily meet your family’s needs compared to someone who hasn’t made these investments.
So to the dictionary definition of resilience, we add:
3. Having multiple, redundant means of meeting one’s needs; having buffers and stored resources; and the ability to switch easily between different potential solutions.
This means that resilience cuts against our current so-called ‘modern’ or ‘superior’ way of life because so much of the developed world lifestyle revolves around micro-specialization, lean inventories, and just-in-time fulfillment. While dazzlingly cost efficient when everything goes as planned, these approaches are vulnerable to unexpected disruptions. Did you know that most cities only have between three and five days worth of food on hand in their grocery stores? If for any reason the constant stream of trucks resupplying those stores should halt, as happened to coastal New Jersey when Hurricane Sandy hit in 2012, then shortages, hunger, and social unrest can quickly follow.
Take a moment to ask yourself what items in your life you’re counting on being there in the future, especially in times of need. What would happen to you if they weren’t? How resilient are you?
THE 8 PRINCIPAL FORMS OF RESILIENCE
If your answer is Not as resilient as I’d like to be, don’t worry. Nearly everyone else on the planet is in the same boat. What matters more, what’s truly going to decide your fate, are the steps you take from here on out.
Which is why we’ve created this book. It provides tangible, practical guidance on exactly how to build greater resilience into your life.
But first, you need a more detailed, concrete understanding of the principal component parts of resilience.
We’re going to use a framework inspired by the work of AppleSeed Permaculture’s Ethan Roland and Gregory Landua (http://www.regenterprise.com), as well as the work of coaching pioneer Thomas Leonard, which we’ve modified to fit the purposes of this book. The framework is based on the observation that, for humans, resilience is attained through the build up of resources and capabilities—referred to in aggregate as capital – across 8 discrete categories of life. This capital has real value, and the capital in one category can usually be exchanged for capital in another. We’ll explain this idea further in a moment, just note for now that it’s an important feature.
Thinking of these components as capital to be earned, exchanged and invested is a very helpful—and ultimately very accurate—way to mentally understand the larger concept of resilience.
Financial capital is the one with which most people are most intuitively familiar. It’s our