If I think about my own future and that of my children, and factor in the uncertainty we face, then of course it’s a good idea to develop plans that are flexible, and to pursue ideas that are robust under a wide range of contingencies. In other words, it is wise to develop coping strategies in the face of uncertainty. However, what is also important is to strive to improve the accuracy of our beliefs about the future. This is crucial because, as I will show, there might well be traps that we are walking towards that could by avoided with foresight, or opportunities we could reach much sooner if we could see them further in advance.
Knowing something about the future helps us to prepare for our future, it influences the advice we give others, and could have a fundamental impact on the choices that we, our family and friends, our community and our company decide to make; about the competencies we decide to develop, the communities and networks on which we focus our attention, or the companies and organisations with which we choose to be associated.
The Future of Work Research Consortium
The challenge is that even with my own three decades of knowledge about work I find the future of work still fiendishly difficult to predict. That’s why, by way of preparation, I created a research consortium designed to tap into ideas and knowledge from across the world. The research takes place every year – beginning in 2009 and progressing to more global and diverse groups every subsequent year.
Each year, my research team and I begin by identifying the five forces that will most impact on the future of work (these are technology; globalisation; demography and longevity; society; and natural resources); we then go about amassing the hard facts for each of these five forces. These hard facts for each of the five forces are then presented to members of the research consortium. This consortium is perhaps one of the most fascinating experiments ever conducted between management, academics and executives. In a sense it creates a ‘wise crowd’ of people. In 2009, for example, more than 200 people participated. They were members of more than 21 companies from around the world including Absa (the South African bank), Nokia, Nomura, Tata Consulting Group (in India), Thomson Reuters and the Singapore Government’s Ministry of Manpower, together with two not-for-profit organisations, Save the Children and World Vision. In 2010 the number of participating companies had risen to 45, with over 15 from Asia including SingTel in Singapore and Wipro, Infosys and Mahindra & Mahindra from India, and Cisco and Manpower from the USA.
The research began in earnest in November 2009, at the London Business School. At this point we presented the hard facts of the five forces and asked executives to construct storylines of a day-in-the-life of people working in 2025 on the basis of what they had heard. We then went on to repeat this exercise with many more people in Singapore and India. The storylines that began to emerge became the blueprints for the stories I will tell later in the book. These are important because, while they are works of fiction, it is through these descriptions of possible everyday life that we are able to imagine the interplay between different ideas and knowledge. These storylines of a day-in-the-life in 2025 are not, of course, forecasts. What they portray are ways of seeing the future, and of assembling different versions of the future. They are crucial because in them we can begin to see just how much the future is full of possibilities.
Once the research team and consortium members had developed the storylines, they took the initial conversations about the hard facts and storylines back to their own companies. Over the following months they brought back the thoughts from their wider community, and from more than 30 countries. At this point we were able to work together virtually in an elaborate shared portal, and also to discuss the emerging ideas in monthly virtual web-based seminars. We followed this up later with a series of workshops in Europe and Asia. At the same time I tested out some of my initial thoughts through a weekly blog, http:// www.lyndagrattonfutureofwork. It is these ideas, insights and anxieties that became stitched into the storyline narratives and brought depth to the conversation. They are also the basis of the personal reflections that you will come across in the debate that follows.
The paths to the future
As we looked more closely at the future, what became increasingly clear was that in fact there is not one but many possible paths to the future. It is certainly possible for each one of us to construct a path into the future that simply accentuates the negatives of the five forces. This becomes a future of isolation, fragmentation, exclusion and narcissism. This is the Default Future in which the five forces have outpaced the possibilities of taking any action. In these storylines we see people who may have been very successful in one aspect of their life, but who have failed to take positive action around an important issue or have only taken actions that are straightforward and seemed easy to take. In the Default Future no one is prepared to work together to take cohesive action or to change the status quo. In this future, dealing with the current problems takes place without consistency or cohesion, and events outpace actions.
There is also a future where the positive aspects of the five forces are harnessed to create a more crafted outcome. These are career and life stories in which collaboration plays a key role, where choice and wisdom are exercised, and actions create a more balanced way of working. In these stories of a Crafted Future people are experimenting with ways of working, learning fast from each other, and rapidly adopting good ideas. These are storylines where the forces that transform work could result in the possibility – the promise, even – of a better future. It is the future that can emerge when people actively make decisions and wise choices, and are able to face up to the consequences of these choices. It is a future in which people can work more harmoniously with others, where they can become more valued and masterful, and where the different parts of a working life can be integrated in a more authentic way.
The storylines within the two paths capture possibilities; they are a way for us to explore the future, and indeed construct our own future. A word of warning: these stories are not in any sense mechanical forecasts of what will be. Instead they are based on the recognition that each one of us holds beliefs and makes choices that can lead down different paths; they reveal different possible futures that are both plausible and challenging.
Taking the right path: the shifts
Each one of us would want to choose the Crafted Future rather than succumb to the Default Future. But how do we ensure we are on the right path? The journey that I went through, and the journey I am inviting you to take, will make you question your mental map of the future, just as it has for me. You and I already have a mental map of the future – that’s what has been driving the decisions we have already taken, and the choices we have already made. The question is: is this the right mental map, and are you on the right path?
In understanding what is the right path, it is crucial to have as much information and knowledge as possible about how the future will emerge. My research team and I have understood this deeply and will present it to you as the stories unfold. It seems to me that the storylines, hard facts and scenarios demand that we re-examine our assumptions, and ask three key questions:
* What are the potential milestones or events that could particularly affect me and those around me?
* What are the most significant factors that will influence my working life, and how could these play out?
* Therefore, what should I be doing over the coming five years to ensure I am on the right path to creating a future-proofed career, particularly in view of the turbulent times ahead?
My aim in this book is clear. It is written to support you as you develop your own point of view about the future – and your own path to creating a future-proofed working life. To do this you will have to understand the hard facts with as much depth as possible; to play through the possible scenarios and storylines to understand what they mean to you; while at the same time really being aware of the aspects of your specific context that will shape the choices you have. Only then can you look hard at your mental models and assumptions of the future and construct a path that will ensure your working life is robust, purposeful and valuable.
So, in creating a future-proofed working life, what are the assumptions that will need to be questioned, and what are the implications