Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов. Читать онлайн. Newlib. NEWLIB.NET

Автор: Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов
Издательство: ЛитРес: Самиздат
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Жанр произведения: Ценные бумаги, инвестиции
Год издания: 2018
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examples that are known to work well. This process accelerates at the next peak of solar activity. This is the first peak of solar activity for postresonators. At the second peak of solar activity, the feeling arises that everything is not going as wished.

      Just as postresonators come to power, they are analogously replaced by post-postresonators. Or the economy of a given country is seized by the economically active subjects of other countries, and is ruined through competing with them. Sometimes this competition is blocked, such as by passing laws (e.g. 1933 in the U.S.) that introduce duties on imported goods. Sometimes it is simply blocked physically (e.g. the “Boston Tea Party” etc.) This tends to happen in countries that are leaders in military-political relationships.

      Sometimes the elite in one or another government seems to have been appointed by the administration of another, more powerful government. The cycle will likewise be other than 72 years.

      But on the whole, if we are talking about the effect of endogenous factors, altogether 72 years pass, and again a first-generation elite comes forth into the historical arena. But the moment of transition of power from the third-generation elite to the first-generation elite is usually hysterical, and often as not colored by bloodshed, especially if this occurs during special activity of the post-postresonators. The hysterical nature of the manifestation of the post-postresonators is polymorphous. One of these manifestations is the active inclusion of defensive reactions. Rational arguments are rejected with passion, vehemence, and they are hidden behind the denunciation of others…

      But have there been more psychoeconomic crises like this? There is reason to suppose that the depression was one such, while in the opinion of some authors, the years 1873-1896 were also a crisis. U.S. economists have a somewhat different view of the boundaries of that depression, namely 1873-1879. But this is a more endogenous factor for Germany. For the U.S. it already possessed signs of being exogenous. Here, similar psychoeconomical dependencies appeared as with the crisis of 1929-1933. Leading to the market panic in 1873, bubbles in the real estate and property markets were inflated and there was a precipitous drop in share prices, etc. But the main evidence that the psychotypes of the economically active population had eventually changed in the direction of the appearance of an ever larger number of resonators is the change in the rates of development of the country. Germany leads in industrial growth. The average annual growth of industrial production in 1891-1913 in England was 2.1%, in the U.S., 4.12%, while in Germany, it was 4.2%. That is, cycles of economic development rooted in endogenous factors may be different in different countries and may not coincide.

      It is amazing that the cycles described coincide with the period of cycles of development of humanity presented in the Book of Veles (Vedic religion).

      In the Vedic calendar there are sacred numbers, including 144. In the Vedic periodization, a cycle occurs called the Circle of Life. This lasts 144 years. If we start from this premise, then 72 years is half the Circle of Life. It is not impossible that systemic changes in people’s psychology are at the bottom and in a 144-year cycle, which is likewise connected with cycles of solar activity.

      We notice that according to the Maya calendar (December 21) and the Vedic calendar, a new epoch begins in 2012 – the Age of Aquarius, which replaces the Piscean Age. With the change of epochs, new patterns in the interrelationships of psychotypes will appear. If we subtract 144 years from 2012, we get 1868. We can tentatively take this for the beginning cycle of social changes in the U.S. Typing in the combination “1868” and “USA” into the Internet, we get the answer.

      The presidential elections in the U.S. in 1868 were the first after the Civil War, in which General Grant won in a landslide, with extension of the right to vote to former slaves. In that year an amendment to the Constitution of the United States was passed, which guarantees United States citizenship to all people born on its territory. There is something to reflect on, knowing the place of birth of U.S. President Obama and the polemics on this topic.

      But we need these calculations more for the psychological, intuitive, sacred prompting of a very important year in the turning point of the crisis of 1929-1933: 1940 arrives.

      To confirm the reasonableness of a similar conclusion, let us examine the chart of change in these years of unemployment in the U.S. –

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/US_Unemployment_1910-1960.gif

      The total number of unemployed in 1933 reached 17 million people, which was a quarter of the country’s entire workforce. So how can this year be considered the year the crisis ended?

      But in 1939, qualitative reforms began in the U.S. economy and the pre-crisis level of industrial production was reached. However, American economists themselves are better able to speak about this. “Government policy adopted after the Great Depression gave birth to a new economic order… During the war, government expenses reached an unprecedented level. The country utilized all of its production capacity and hired practically all working-age Americans. And although most of its energy was directed at satisfying military needs, the total level of production met the requirements of the society. By the end of the war most Americans who had lived through it found themselves in a more lucrative condition than before the war, and the Great Depression, undoubtedly, was over.” (see: [1], pp. 28-29).

      A profound meaning is to be found in these words. What is full employment of the population, a full workload of industry? This is a time when resonators and domain experts are at the center of attention and everyone depends on them. Previously much, if not all, depended on “knocking out” orders, and on the system of selling the manufactured product (social motivators sell), on the preferences on the part of the government (the social motivators likewise tackle those), etc. During the war, in a period of full occupation and a guarantee of almost automatic sale of what was produced, the professional skills of those who can produce, namely the professionals and domain experts, come to the foreground.

      A similar periodization of the Great Depression coincides with the opinion of many leading contemporary American economists: 1929-1939. This is important, since in acknowledging the analogy between the Great Depression and contemporary processes in the economy, it is psychologically easier and more scientifically precise to approach designating the date of end of the recession (?) that began in 2008.

      Thus, the crisis, which it is common to designate as the crisis of 1929-1933, in fact stretched to the beginning of World War II. For the U.S. this was a crisis in the system of socioeconomic relationships, which usually precedes the accession to power of the resonators.

      It is similar to the crisis in Rome during the reign of Nero, and to the crisis in the U.S.S.R. at the beginning of the 1990s, and to hundreds of similar crises which have passed, are passing, and will pass into history with the appearance of the third-generation elite in combination with strengthening the hysteroidal personality traits in workers and the economically active population, and when it is not possible for this elite to manage the system of socioeconomic contradictions by understanding the essence of what is taking place and adopting preemptive decisions. The defensive reactions of the elite or those who imitate them become an impediment on the path of responsible reforms. This is further exacerbated by the fact that upon departing from the historical stage, the third-generation elite is not in a condition to change its psychotype in the immediate situation and capture the leadership from the resonators or simply from sensibly thinking people.

      This is one of the reasons that the successful elite should know how to change its psychotype to its opposite, in a pendular way. This is necessary for following oscillatory changes of the population’s psychotype and successfully managing them also through psychological mechanisms and through personal example, and not simply through reasoning or military strength. Since, when the psychotype of the elite does not “click” with the psychotype of the basic mass of the populace, the elite is simply dethroned. Naturally this process is preceded by that of the elite losing their usefulness for the people and their control over surplus production and financial flows.

      In crises of this type the role of the hysteroid personality increases sharply. This manifests itself in multiple facets.

      First, in changing the motivational base of making decisions from the main subjects of