TO THOMAS PAINE
Dear Sir,—Your favors of February the 16th to April the 13th, and of May the 3d and 10th, are received; and the two last are sent to Mr. Leroy, who will communicate them to the Academy.
You know that the States General have met, and probably have seen the speeches at the opening of them. The three orders sit in distinct chambers. The great question, whether they shall vote by orders or persons can never be surmounted amicably. It has not yet been proposed in form; but the votes which have been taken on the outworks of that question show that the Tiers Etat are unanimous, a good majority of the Clergy (consisting of the Curés) disposed to side with the Tiers Etat, and in the chamber of the Noblesse, there are only fifty-four in that sentiment, against one hundred and ninety, who are for voting by orders. Committees to find means of conciliation are appointed by each chamber; but conciliation is impossible. Some think the Nobles could be induced to unite themselves with the higher Clergy into one House, the lower Clergy and Tiers Etat forming another. But the Tiers Etat are immovable. They are not only firm, but a little disdainful. The question is, what will ensue? One idea is to separate, in order to consult again their constituents, and to take new instructions. This would be doing nothing, for the same instructions would be repeated; and what, in the meantime, is to become of a government, absolutely without money, and which cannot be kept in motion with less than a million of livres a day? The more probable expectation is as follows. As soon as it shall become evident that no amicable determination of the manner of voting can take place, the Tiers Etat will send an invitation to the two other orders to come and take their places in the common chamber. A majority of the Clergy will go, and the minority of the Noblesse. The chamber thus composed will declare that the States General are constituted, will notify it to the King, and that they are ready to proceed to business. If the King refuses to do business with them, and adheres to the Nobles, the common chamber will declare all taxes at an end, will form a declaration of rights, and do such other acts as circumstances will permit, and go home. The tax-gatherers will then be resisted, and it may well be doubted whether the soldiery and their officers will not divide, as the Tiers Etat and Nobles. But it is more likely that the King will agree to do business with the States General, so constituted, professing that the necessities of the moment force this, and that he means to negotiate (as they go along) a reconciliation between the seceding members and those which remain. If the matter takes this turn, there may be small troubles and ebullitions excited by the seceding Noblesse and higher Clergy; but no serious difficulty can arise. M. de Lamoignon, the Garde des Sceaux of the last year, has shot himself. The Emperor's complaint is pulmonary and incurable. The Grand Seignior is dead; his successor, young and warlike. I congratulate you sincerely on the success of your bridge. I was sure of it before from theory; yet one likes to be assured from practice also. I am anxious to see how Mr. Rumsey's experiment succeeds.
May the 21st. I have this moment received a letter from Ledyard, dated Cairo, November the 15th. He therein says, "I am doing up my baggage, and most curious baggage it is, and I leave Cairo in two or three days. I travel from hence southwest, about three hundred leagues, to a black King; there my present conductors leave me to my fate. Beyond, I suppose, I go alone. I expect to hit the continent across, between the parallels of twelve and twenty degrees north latitude. I shall, if possible, write you from the kingdom of this black gentleman." This seems to contradict the story of his having died at Cairo in January, as he was then, probably, in the interior parts of Africa. If Sir Joseph Banks has no news from him later than the letter of September, it may do him pleasure, if you will communicate the above. If he or any other person knows whether there is any foundation for the story of his death, I will thank you to inform me of it. My letter being to go off to-morrow, I shall only add assurances of the esteem and respect with which I am, dear Sir, your friend and servant.
TO DOCTOR PRICE
Dear Sir,—Your favor of the 4th instant is duly received. I am in hourly expectation of receiving letters permitting me to go to America for a few months, and shall leave Paris within a very few days after I shall have received them. As this is probably the last letter I can have the honor of writing you before my return, I will do myself the pleasure of putting you in possession of the state of things here at this moment, as it may enable you better to decide between truth and falsehood for some time to come. You already know that the States General are met, and have seen the speeches of the King, the Garde des Sceaux, and of Mr. Neckar. The three orders as yet, set in different chambers. The great parliamentary question whether they shall vote by orders or persons is undecided. It has not yet been formally proposed, but the votes already given in the separate chambers on the outworks of that question, show that the Tiers Etat are unanimous for voting by persons. A good majority of the Clergy of the same disposition, and only fifty-four of the Noblesse against one hundred and ninety of the same body, who are for voting by orders. The chambers have appointed committees to confer together on the means of conciliation, but this is mere form, conciliation being impracticable. The Noblesse, as some think, would be induced to unite themselves into one house, with the higher Clergy, the lower Clergy and Tiers forming another. But the Tiers are firm, and will agree to no modification. They are disposed to reduce the State to one order as much as possible. As we are always disposed to conjecture on the future, it is natural to form conjectures as to the issue from the present difficulty. One idea is, that they will separate to consult their constituents. I think they will not do this, because they know their constituents will repeat the same instructions. And what in the meantime is to become of a government which cannot keep in motion with less than a million of livres a day? A more probable conjecture is, that when it shall be manifest that conciliation is impracticable, the Tiers will invite the other orders to come and take their places in the common chamber. The majority of the Clergy, (to wit, the curés, and the minority of the Noblesse,) will accept the invitation. The chamber thus composed, will declare that the States General are now constituted, will notify it to the King, and prepare to proceed to business. If he refuses to acknowledge them, and adheres to the principles of the Noblesse, they will suspend all taxes, form a declaration of rights, and do such other acts as circumstances will admit, and go home. The tax-gatherers will be resisted, and perhaps the soldiery take side with the Tiers, and their officers with the Noblesse. But I rather suppose the King will do business with the States so constituted, negotiating at the same time as they go along, a reconciliation with the seceding members. The latter may in that case excite small and partial troubles, but cannot make a serious resistance. It is very important that the lower Clergy side with the Tiers. They are the effective part of that order, while the bishops and archbishops are held in detestation. But you are to keep in mind that these are conjectures, and you know how small a circumstance may give a totally different turn from what has been plausibly conjectured. My hope is that the mass of the Bourgeoisie is too well in motion, and too well-informed to be resisted or misled, and ultimately that this great country will obtain a good constitution, and show the rest of Europe that reformation in government follows reformation in opinion. I am, with sentiments of the most perfect esteem and attachment, dear Sir, your most obedient, and most humble servant.
TO MONSIEUR DE CREVECOEUR
Dear Sir,—I am now to acknowledge the receipt of your several letters of October 20th, November 20th, and January 2d, and to thank you for the pamphlets you have been so kind as to send me. A conveyance by the way of London enables me to write the present, for I never think of writing news