But the change will most likely affect even flourishing species in different ways, some beneficially, others injuriously. Or, again, it may affect a great many injuriously, to such an extent as to require some change in their structure or habits to enable them to get on as well as before. Now "variation" and the "struggle for existence" come into play. All the weaker and less perfectly organised individuals die out, while those which vary in such a way as to bring them into more harmony with the new conditions constantly survive. If the change of conditions has been considerable, then, after a few centuries, or perhaps even a few generations, one or more new species will be almost sure to be formed.
Variation in Animals.—To make this more intelligible to those who have not considered the subject, and to obviate the difficulty many feel about "favourable variations occurring at the right time," it will be well to discuss this matter a little more fully. Few persons consider how largely and universally all animals are varying. We know, however, that in every generation, if we could examine all the individuals of any common species, we should find considerable differences, not only in size and colour, but in the form and proportions of all the parts and organs of the body. In our domesticated animals we know this to be the case, and it is by means of the continual selection of such slight varieties to breed from that all our extremely different domestic breeds have been produced. Think of the difference in every limb, and every bone and muscle, and probably in every part, internal and external of the whole body, between a greyhound and a bull-dog! Yet, if we had the complete series of ancestors of these two breeds before us, we should probably find that in no one generation was there a greater difference than now occurs in the same breed, or sometimes even the same litter. It is often thought, however, that wild species do not vary sufficiently to bring about any such change as this in the same time; and though naturalists are well aware that this is a mistake, it is only recently that they have been able to adduce positive proof of their opinion.
The Amount of Variation in North American Birds.—An American naturalist, Mr. J. A. Allen, has made elaborate observations and measurements of the birds of the United States, and he finds a wonderful and altogether unsuspected amount of variation between individuals of the same species. They differ in the general tint, and in the markings and distribution of the colours; in size and proportions; in the length of the wings, tail, bill, and feet; in the length of particular feathers, altering the shape of the wing or tail; in the length of the tarsi and of the separate toes, and in the length, width, thickness, and curvature of the bill. These variations are very considerable, often reaching to one-sixth or one-seventh of the average dimensions, and sometimes more. Thus Turdus fuscescens (Wilson's thrush) varied in length of wing from 3.58 to 4.16 inches, and in the tail from 3.55 to 4.00 inches; and in twelve specimens, all taken in the same locality, the wing varied in length from 14.5 to 21 per cent., and the tail from 14 to 22.5 per cent. In Sialia sialis (the blue bird) the middle toe varied from .77 to .91 inch, and the hind toe from .58 to .72 inch, or more than 21.5 per cent. on the mean, while the bill varied from .45 to .56 inch in length, and from .30 to .38 inch in width, or about 20 per cent. in both cases. In Dendrœca coronata (the yellow-crowned warbler) the quills vary in proportionate length, so that the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd, or the 4th, is sometimes longest; and a similar variation of the wing involving a change of proportion between two or more of the feathers is recorded in eleven species of birds. Colour and marking vary to an equal extent; the dark streaks on the under surface of Melospiza melodia (the American song-sparrow) being sometimes reduced to narrow lines. while in other specimens they are so enlarged as to cover the greater part of the breast and sides of the body, sometimes uniting on the middle of the breast into a nearly continuous patch. In one of the small spotted wood-thrushes, Turdus fuscescens, the colours are sometimes very pale, and the markings on the breast reduced to indistinct narrow lines, while in other specimens the general colour is much darker, and the breast markings dark, broad, and triangular. All the variations here mentioned occur between adult males, so that there is no question of differences of age or sex, and the pair last referred to were taken at the same place and on the same day.9
These interesting facts entirely support the belief in the variability of all animals in all their parts and organs, to an extent amply sufficient for natural selection to work with. We may, indeed, admit that these are extreme cases, and that the majority of species do not vary half or a quarter so much as shown in the examples quoted, and we shall still have ample variation for all purposes of specific modification. Instead of an extreme variation in the dimensions and proportions of the various organs of from 10 to 25 per cent. as is here proved to occur, we may assume from 3 to 6 per cent. as generally occurring in the majority of species; and if we further remember that the above excessive variations were found by comparing a number of specimens of each species, varying from 50 to 150 only, we may be sure that the smaller variations we require must occur in considerable numbers among the thousands or millions of individuals of which all but the very rare species consist. If, therefore, we were to divide the population of any species into three groups of equal extent, with regard to any particular character—as length of wing, or of toes, or thickness or curvature of bill, or strength of markings—we should have one group in which the mean or average character prevailed with little variation, one in which the character was greatly, and one in which it was little, developed. If we formed our groups, not by equal numbers, but by equal amount of variation, we should probably find, in accordance with the law of averages, that the central group in which the mean characteristics prevailed was much more numerous than the extremes, perhaps twice, or even three times, as great as either of them, and forming such a series as the following—10 maximum, 30 mean, 10 minimum development. In ordinary cases we have no reason to believe that the mean characters or the amount of variation of a species changes materially from year to year or from century to century, and we may therefore look upon the central group as the type of the species which is best adapted to the conditions in which it has actually to exist. This type will therefore always form the majority, because the struggle for existence will lead to the continual suppression of the less perfectly adapted extremes. But sometimes a species has a wide range into countries which differ in physical conditions, and then it often happens that one or other of the extremes will predominate in a portion of its range. These form local varieties, but as they occur mixed with the other forms, they are not considered to be distinct species, although they may differ from the other extreme form quite as much as species often do from each other.10
How New Species arise from a Variable Species.—It is now very easy to understand how, from such a variable species, one or more new species may arise. The peculiar physical or organic conditions that render one part of the area better adapted to an extreme form may become intensified, and the most extreme variations thus having the advantage, they will multiply at the expense of the rest. If the change of conditions spreads over the whole area occupied by the species, this one extreme form will replace the others; while if the area should be cut in two by subsidence or elevation, the conditions of the two parts may be modified in opposite directions, so as to be each adapted to one extreme form; in which case the original type will become extinct, being replaced by two species, each formed by a combination of certain extreme characters which had before existed in some of its varieties.
The changes of conditions which lead to such selection of varieties are very diverse in nature, and new species may thus be formed, diverging in many ways from the original stock. The climate may change from moist to dry, or the reverse, or the temperature may increase