Экспонента. Как быстрое развитие технологий меняет бизнес, политику и общество. Азим Ажар

Kurzweil, “Average Transistor Price,” Singularity.com. http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html.

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      Dan Hutcheson, “Graphic: Transistor Production Has Reached Astronomical Scales,” IEEE Spectrum, April 2, 2015. https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales.

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      James W. Cortada, The Computer in the United States: From Laboratory to Market (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), p. 117; 95 percent of these were in the US. See also “Early Popular Computers, 1950–1970,” Engineering and Technology History Wiki. https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers,_1950_-_1970.

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      Кристенсен К. Дилемма инноватора. Как из-за новых технологий погибают сильные компании. М.: Альпина Паблишер, 2019. Прим. ред.

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      Horace Dediu, personal correspondence with the author, December 1, 2016.

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      In 1940, 65 percent of American homes had flush toilets. By 1960, it was 90 percent. “Historical Census of Housing Tables – Sewage Disposal.” https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html.

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      Paul R. Liegey, “Microwave Oven Regression Model,” U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm.

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Здесь и далее: название социальной сети, принадлежащей Meta Platforms Inc., признанной экстремистской организацией на территории РФ.

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      Alex Wilhelm, “Charting Bird and Lime’s Rapid Growth,” Crunchbase News, September 20, 2018. https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/.

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      Computers are so cheap, they turn up in surprising places. Disposable pregnancy tests have a small computer in them – used once and thrown away.

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      Charlotte Burgess, “Future Banking: Creating an ‘Incumbent Challenger’,” Finovate, 2020. https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/.

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      Author’s analysis at Azeem Azhar, “Big Ideas for 2021; China’s Civil-Military Fusion; Tesla’s Infrastructure Advantage; the Climate Decade; Elephant Body Fat & Hegelian Enjoyment ++ #307,” Exponential View. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307.

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      David Rotman, “We’re Not Prepared for the End of Moore’s Law,” MIT Technology Review, February 24, 2020. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/.

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      Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” Kurzweil.net, 2001. https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns.

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      Kurzweil also predicts a “singularity” where the capacities of computers exceed those of the human brain. This argument is not relevant to my argument, so I don’t consider it here.

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      Azeem Azhar, “Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: My Conversation with Stuart Russell,” Exponential View, August 22, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence.

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      Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, “AI and Compute,” OpenAI, May 16, 2018. https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/.

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      Charles E. Leiserson et al., “There’s Plenty of Room at the Top: What Will Drive Computer Performance after Moore’s Law?” Science 368(6495), June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744.

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