2 Benefits and societal impacts of autonomous driving. 22
2.1 The promises of autonomous driving. 22
2.2 The impacts of autonomous driving. 30
3 Barriers and challenges of autonomous driving. 36
3.2 Increases in unemployment 37
3.3 Data protection and privacy. 37
3.4 Costs of autonomous vehicles. 38
3.5 Market introduction and transit period. 40
3.6 Legislation and liability. 41
3.7 The 2x2 dimension of autonomous driving. 47
4 A cost/ benefit analysis of autonomous driving. 50
5 From ADAS to fully autonomous driving. 51
5.1 ADAS-Systems - an overview.. 54
5.2 Accident avoidance through ADAS. 55
5.3 ADAS - a fast growing industry. 57
5.4 The different steps towards self-driving vehicles. 63
6 Technical requirements for autonomous driving. 69
7 Examples of autonomous vehicles. 87
7.1 Google’s self-driving cars - first generation. 89
7.2 Google’s next generation of self-driving cars. 93
8 Availability of autonomous vehicles and future outlook. 98
8.2 When to expect (fully) autonomous driving?. 102
9 The future of the driverless-automotive industry. 110
11.3 Abbreviations and Nomenclature. 134
1 Introduction
Visions of unmanned and autonomous machines and vehicles are not new. Experiments with unmanned aircrafts began in the First World War and a radio controlled car was demonstrated in the streets of New York in 1925 [2].
Autonomous vehicles have long been predicted in science fiction and discussed in popular science media.
Recently, major corporations have announced plans to begin selling fully autonomous vehicles in the near future.
Driverless vehicles are no longer restricted to the realm of science fiction - they are in development and will be operating on our roads sooner than many would imagine.
This section defines the terms “autonomous”, “self-driving”, and “robotic” as they refer to vehicles and provides examples of each. Further, this section points out why these vehicles are so popular nowadays and why they might become indispensable for our society.
1.1 Definition of (fully) autonomous vehicles
Right now, there exists no consensus definition of autonomous vehicles. The most typical designations are: “driverless”, “(fully) autonomous”, “self-driving” or “robotic”. Currently, the descriptions “driverless” or “fully autonomous” vehicles are representing the most common phrases by containing: a vehicle (car) with total autonomy.
As there is no consensus definition, two working definitions will be used here:
• Definition 1: a vehicle that is designed to travel between destinations without a human operator.
• Definition 2: a vehicle which is able to perceive its environment, decide autonomously which route to take to its destination, and conduct itself along the route it selects.
Certain milestones of autonomy must be achieved before a vehicle can be considered fully autonomous (a detailed description is mentioned in chapter 5).
| A fully autonomous vehicle can be described as a vehicle, being able to navigate without any human intervention to a predetermined destination over roads that have not been adapted for its use. |
For a common understanding, the terms “autonomous” and “driverless” vehicles will be used interchangeably in this report.
1.2 What does a “driverless” vehicle look like?
The concept of a driverless vehicle is not totally new.
Even in the year 1957 people thought about what future cars would look like. Fig 1 shows a common portrayal. Here we see a family of four playing a board game while their futuristic electric car drives itself. As this advert from 1957 suggests, the aspiration for self-driving cars is one that has been held for at least half of a century. The text that accompanied the original read: “ELECTRICITY MAY BE THE DRIVER. One day your car may speed along an electric super-highway, its speed and steering automatically controlled by electronic devices embedded in the road. Highways will be made safe by electricity! No traffic jams…no collisions…no