Demographic Dynamics and Development. Yves Charbit. Читать онлайн. Newlib. NEWLIB.NET

Автор: Yves Charbit
Издательство: John Wiley & Sons Limited
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Жанр произведения: Социология
Год издания: 0
isbn: 9781119902843
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rights 6. Mortality and Health, the Factors Involved in Population Dynamics (Gaimard) Mortality of women and children 7. Dynamics of Migration History in Western Europe (Moch) Migratory systems 8. Current International Migrations (Feld) The emigration of the highly qualified workforce 9. Aging (Sandron) Three models: Cuba, Age-Friendly Cities, Sub-Saharan Africa

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      Charbit, Y. (1983). The fate of Malthus‘s work: History and ideology. In Malthus Past and Present, Dupaquier, J. (ed.). Academic Press, London.

      Charbit, Y. (2009). Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century. The Population Debate from Malthus to Marx. Springer, Dordrecht.

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      Malthus, T.R. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth.

      Mandelbaum, D.G. (1974). Human Fertility in India. University of California Press, Berkeley.

      Notestein, F.W. (1953). Economic problems of population change. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference of Agricultural Economists. Oxford University Press, London.

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      UN DESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. United Nations, New York.

      1 1 All the data quoted in this introduction are from the United Nations (UN DESA 2019).

      1

      The Demographic Transition

       Maria Eugenia COSIO ZAVALA

       El Colegio de México, Mexico, and Paris Nanterre University, France

      The demographic transition refers to the passage from a regime of high mortality and high fertility to a regime with low mortality and reduced fertility. In-depth work1 has brought to light a large heterogeneity of contexts and variation in stages, such as the demographic situation at the start of the transition, the anteriority of the decline in mortality or fertility, medical progress, urbanization, the pace of the main demographic changes (mortality, nuptiality, fertility and migrations) and the period when the transition has been completed. We cannot, therefore, speak of a single model of demographic transition, but of a great diversity which can be explained by economic, social, cultural and institutional factors, across time and space.

      The concepts developed offer an extremely rich field of study for the history of the world’s population, spanning more than three centuries. Indeed, far from a single model of demographic transition – which would be a replica of the evolutions of European countries – temporalities, as well as the variety of demographic changes along the 20th and 21st centuries in developing countries, show a plurality of models.

      In this chapter, we will successively analyze the genesis of the demographic transition model and its generalization, the current trends in population growth, as well as the demographic transitions around the world, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean. The main results of the chapter should provide an in-depth understanding of the relationship between population and development.

      The earliest reference to the consequences of a decline in birth and death rates was first described as a “demographic revolution” by Rabinowicz in 1929 (Adeev 2011, p. 9). Landry chose this reference as the title for his famous work (Landry 1982). Notestein introduced the term “transitional growth” as a reference to the moment when mortality declined, provoking strong population growth, followed by a decline in fertility2 (Notestein 1945, p. 46). For Notestein, the demographic transition was associated with modernization, urbanization and industrialization; the development of education and public health; increased living standards; fertility control and the adoption of new values (Notestein 1945, p. 57). Davis would in turn publish an article called The World Demographic Transition in 1945. According to Chesnais, the original theory of demographic transition, in its European (Landry) or North American (Davis, Notestein) versions, was achieved by 1953 (Chesnais 1986b, p. 1061).

      By analyzing 67 countries between 1720 and 1984, Chesnais wanted to show that the demographic transition is a general theory, “reduced to a few central empirically testable propositions and [which] can be enriched on certain points that the history of facts deems essential for the understanding of the mechanisms at work” (Chesnais 1986b, p. 1061). He further mentions:

      [T]hree paradigms, which can be drawn from the founding texts: the principle of antecedence in the decrease in mortality; the two-phase reproductive transition module (limitation of marriages, and consequent limitation of births); and the influence of the access to modern economic growth (in the sense of Kuznets) on the triggering of the secular decline in fertility. (Chesnais 1986b, p. 1061)

      In addition, he stresses:

      [T]he insufficiencies of the original theory and therefore the necessary amendments [which] concern, for their part, three aspects: the concept of pre- and post-transitional balance, the absence of international