Demographic Dynamics and Development. Yves Charbit. Читать онлайн. Newlib. NEWLIB.NET

Автор: Yves Charbit
Издательство: John Wiley & Sons Limited
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Жанр произведения: Социология
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isbn: 9781119902843
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of modern contraception methods spread rapidly in these well-situated social categories, which followed the path of the societies that started the modern contraceptive revolution (Leridon and Toulemon 2002).

      However, for disadvantaged social categories, a different fertility transition model took place, in the form of a late and rapid decrease. Until 1985, the poorest and least educated populations maintained high fertility, between five and six children per woman, as in Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4). Then, their fertility dropped extremely quickly. Malthusian poverty came about when disadvantaged families had to limit their births in order to be able to survive given that modern contraception methods were widely available to them:

      Far from conveying a harmonious social development, this stresses the bankruptcy of the economic model, the deterioration of the living standards and the effects of the crisis which dramatically hit the most disadvantaged social strata, while an abundant parallel offer of family planning services were developing. (Cosio Zavala 1998, p. 67)

       (source: United Nations 2019a; Tables Mort/7-1 and Fert/4)22

Mortality transitions Fertility transitions
Highly advanced TFR < 2.0 Advanced TFR = 2.0 Major 2.4 ≥ TFR > 2.1 Moderate TFR = 2.5 In progress TFR > 2.5
Advanced Eo≥ 78 years Chile 80/1.7 Costa Rica 80/1.8 Cuba 79/1.6 Uruguay 78/2.0 Panama 78/2.5
Average 78 years <E0 ≥ 75 years Brazil 76/1.7 Colombia 77/1.8 Argentina 76/2.3 Ecuador 77/2.4 Mexico 75/2.1 Peru 76/2.3 Honduras 75/2.5
In progress 72 years ≥ Eo ≤ 74 years Dominican Republic 74/2.4 El Salvador 73/2.1 Nicaragua 74/2.4 Venezuela 72/2.3 Paraguay 74/2.5 Guatemala 74/2.9
Starting Eo < 72 years Bolivia 71/2.8 Haiti 64/3.0

      Furthermore, beyond the analyses at a global scale, if one takes into account social and territorial inequalities, migrations, as well as cultural and religious dimensions, different models of demographic transition arise, depending on historical, economic, social and institutional contexts.

      We can indeed conclude:

      That there is no single model of demographic transition, since the conditions under which it occurs are under the influence of temporal and spatial variables, the values and standards of each society, of its economic and social organization. (Unesco 1996, p. 8)

      And therefore, it is necessary to study the social, regional and cultural dimensions of demographic trends in more depth. This is what has led to a considerable number of works on the subject, for decades and still nowadays.

      It is in fact paradoxical and stimulating that the concept of demographic transition has been criticized from all sides, but that it is at the origin of fundamental investigations to understand the common history and the possible future of demographic changes worldwide.

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