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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Callahan, Craig, author.
Title: Unloved bull markets : getting rich the easy way by riding bull markets / Craig Callahan.
Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2022] | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2021047306 (print) | LCCN 2021047307 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119847175 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119847410 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119847403 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Bull markets. | Investments.
Classification: LCC HG4910 .C347 2022 (print) | LCC HG4910 (ebook) | DDC 332.64/2—dc23/eng/20211004
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021047306
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021047307
Cover Design: Wiley
Cover Images: © Hryhorii Bondar/Getty Images, © fstop123/Getty Images
Preface
This book evolved out of frustration. Many investors, financial advisors, professional money managers, and institutions missed out on the opportunity for big returns and wealth accumulation during the eleven-year bull market from 2009 to 2020 and the subsequent bull market of 2020. We were correctly bullish during those bull markets and were frustrated by our inability to convince audiences that the stock market was going higher. Fears and intuition trumped our data and logic. The investors and managers who missed out were better at denying and dismissing bull markets than they were at recognizing them. The time to rationalize is over. It is time to learn how to recognize a bull market and make money.
For decades I have been telling financial advisors and investors “rallies and bull markets don't issue invitations” and “rallies and bull markets don't look like rallies and bull markets” … until they are over. An old Wall Street saying is that “stocks climb a wall of worry.” We are in an imperfect world and there is always something to worry about. This book will help financial advisors and investors focus on the profitable climb instead of the worries.
There is a little bit of “I told you so” in this book, but just enough to emphasize a few points and help readers avoid missing the next bull market. Of course, to get the full benefit of the messages in this book, some readers are going to have to admit they were wrong about some things. It seems worth it, though, if that is what it takes to fully participate in the next bull market.
Acknowledgments
Indeesh Mukhopadhyay provided valuable editorial feedback in the early stages of writing this book. In the final stages, Andrea Weule helped pull it all together. Kevin Scott, director of marketing at ICON, was invaluable with all logistical aspects. I would like to thank all three of them.
When a financial advisor places their investors’ assets with ICON, I take it very personally. I would like to thank those advisors for the trust they have placed in me over the years.
I would like to thank my two sons for believing in my system, supporting me, and embracing the duties of being fiduciaries.
I offer special, huge thanks to my wife, Linda, for her love and support, especially during graduate school and the difficult start-up years of ICON.
About the Author
Craig Callahan earned his bachelor of science in psychology at The Ohio State University in 1973 and his doctorate in finance from Kent State University in 1979. He began his career as a finance professor at the University of Denver primarily teaching investments and securities analysis. He also did research for a Denver brokerage firm before cofounding the predecessor company to ICON Advisers in 1986. Dr. Callahan created ICON's valuation investment methodology, which is used by him and others for portfolio management. Since 2000, ICON has won seventeen Lipper Awards for being the number one mutual fund in various categories and time periods. Twice he was a finalist for Ernst & Young's entrepreneur of the year in the Rocky Mountain region. Dr. Callahan appears regularly as a guest on financial television and radio. He does presentations at financial advisor and broker dealer conferences multiple times a year.
Introduction
On March 9, 2009, the stock market hit bottom after a seventeen-month agonizing bear market. Six months earlier, Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers, two prestigious investment banking firms on Wall Street, collapsed under the weight of subprime mortgages. General Motors was facing bankruptcy and seeking a government bailout. Unemployment was 8.7% and racing to 10%. GDP had been negative for two quarters, including a stunning negative 8.5% quarter-to-quarter drop during the fourth quarter of 2008. Out of that setting, the bull market began. From the low on March 9, 2009, through February19, 2020, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 1500 Index gained 530.12%, meaning if an investor had the courage to invest $1.00 at the bottom and hold eleven years, $1.00 invested would have grown to $6.30. As impressive as that is, many investors did not participate. Rallies and bull markets are often disguised.
On Monday July 13, 2009, I was on CNBC TV “Squawk on the Street” with Erin Burnett; Matt Nesto, who was substituting for Mark Haines; and another guest, Dan Deighan of Deighan Financial Advisors. Figure Intro.1 shows the S&P 1500 Index from December 31, 2008, through April 30, 2010. The arrow points at July 13, 2009, the day of the interview. Just prior to the interview the rally took a brief pause late June and early July.
| Erin: | How do you position yourself? On the bullish side or the bearish side? Whether you go for a cataclysmic collapse or slow bleed? |
| Matt (after Mr. Deighan gave his bearish outlook): | Let's get Craig in before he blows a gasket. He's a bull! |
| Craig: | Yes, I am. It all starts with value. We measure the market right now to be well over 20% below fair value. The corporate bond rally is the best bond rally I have seen in decades and that is very supportive of higher stock prices. Many times we have seen the bond market just pull stocks along with it and I would expect it this time. So we think this is just a pause to the first leg of recovery and we expect the next leg will start soon. |
| Erin: | And where does that come from? What will be the catalyst for growth? |
| Craig: |
We do not need a robust recovery. We just need the world not to be as terrible as was believed a few months ago. The market did overreact. People were talking depression back then. We are obviously not having one of those, so stocks are just trying to get back
|