“Amlan Roy has written a tour-de-force on the impact of demographics on economic growth and policy, pension design, and portfolio management. This book, from the global expert on demographics, is a must-read for investors, financial professionals, and policy makers.
—Arun Muralidhar, Co-founder, Mcube Investment Technologies, Pension Expert (3 books)
“Amlan has been pioneering the link between demographics and financial markets at least since our days together at Credit Suisse in London 20 years ago. The accumulated knowledge that Amlan has gathered throughout his career is collated for the first time in this ground-breaking book, along with all the painstaking data-driven evidence, charts, and trend analyses that built up his reputation as a top-notch applied financial economist over the years, crossing over geographies: a must-read for all professional investors, and a source of inspiration for academics.”
—Olivier Ledoit, Senior Research Associate, Department of Economics, University of Zurich
“Demographics remains one of the most important and under-appreciated areas of inquiry. This well-researched book provides a clear understanding of precisely how demographic data can serve as a crystal ball into the future. Carefully researched and very accessible, it is a must-read for anybody looking to understand what lies ahead for economy and society.”
—Ranjay Gulati, Harvard Business School, Paul Lawrence MBA, and Class of 1942 Professor
“Renowned pensions expert Amlan Roy treats us with his state-of-the-art insights on demographics. This wonderful book is a must-read for anyone keen on truly understanding the deep impact of demographics on finance, economics, and our lives.”
—Dirk Broeders, Professor of Pension Finance, Maastricht University, Netherlands
“As you step away from the noise of daily market fluctuations it is of paramount importance to consider how demographic changes will affect the long run macroenvironment and influence the risk/return prospects of financial assets. Amlan's book is a must-read for asset allocators and long-term investors.”
—Mirko Cardinale, Head of Investment Strategy, USS Investment Management, London
“This book is a must-read for economists and finance analysts, both academics and practitioners. The book is very well written by an expert on the subject of demographics (a mega trend) and dispels certain misconceptions.”
—Tom A. Fearnley, Investment Director, Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Asset Management
“Roy is uniquely equipped with the knowledge and insight required to understand the complex aspects of demographic dynamics. If this book will be widely read, there is hope we will cope better with demographic changes than we do today.”
—Theo Kocken, Founder, Cardano Group; and Professor of Risk Management, VU University, Netherlands
“Often overlooked, demographic factors are the hidden hand behind economics and asset prices. Dr. Roy provides valuable insights on how demographic factors should be incorporated into investment decisions by asset owners, particularly those in the life and pensions space.”
—Hemal Popat, Investment Actuary, Mercer Investments
“Understanding the far-reaching effects of demographics on economic activity and financial markets is vital, and there is no better guide than Amlan Roy; this book is an important resource for those who wish to understand the interactions in all their complexity.”
—Richard Lacaille, Global Head of ESG, State Street Corp; and Former Global CIO, SSGA
“Demography affects many facets of economic life, yet its influence is widely under-appreciated. Written by an acknowledged expert and based on a lifetime of study, Roy's book masterfully explains just why demography is so important to our future prospects.”
—Professor Sir Charles Bean, LSE; and Former Deputy Governor, Bank of England
“A very thorough and detailed account of many challenges facing both researchers and market practitioners in addressing difficult macroeconomic developments of modern times. The book challenges many cliches and stylised facts that surround demographics research and offers a fresh and comprehensive perspective on the subject. A must-read for students, policy makers and investment professionals interested in the intersection of demographics, macroeconomics and asset management.”
—Oksana Hrynchak, Analytics & Product Specialist, Bloomberg; and Formerly Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, & Bluecrest
Demographics Unravelled
How Demographics Affect and Influence Every Aspect of Economics, Finance and Policy
Amlan Roy
This edition first published 2022 Copyright © 2022 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Registered office John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom
For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com
.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher.
Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com
. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com
.
Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is Available
ISBN 978-1-119-79913-9 (hardback)
ISBN 978-1-119-79914-6 (ePDF)
ISBN 978-1-119-79915-3 (ePub)
ISBN 978-1-119-79916-0 (Obook)
Cover Design: Wiley
Cover Images: © wildpixel/Getty Images, Floortje/Getty Images
To Anju, Shonai, Lilu, and Ranga
About