Critical Questions for Ageing Societies. Carney, Gemma

ageing refers to the general trend across the globe whereby the average age of the human population is increasing. This means that a higher proportion of the population is aged 50 years or more. We tend to take 50 as the marker of the very beginning of old age because it is the point at which life scientists recognise that human beings are beyond reproductive age. This capacity of human beings to live beyond reproductive age has been recognised as significant by all the major international organisations. In fact, the implications of population ageing have been recognised as being so pervasive, enduring and significant that, in 2002, the United Nations launched the Madrid International Plan on Ageing. The World Health Organization (WHO) has led a major international ‘age-friendly’ initiative in more than 46 countries around the world (WHO, nd). The European Union (EU) has recognised it as a ‘grand societal challenge’ for researchers under the Horizon 2020 programme of research (European Union, 2019). Most countries in Europe have some form of active ageing strategy (see United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2018). For policy makers, population ageing is a major challenge, as it requires changes in how resources are allocated between groups.

      The process of population ageing is not a static or linear process; in fact, it has been constantly changing since it gained international recognition at the turn of the century. For instance, the human race passed a major milestone in 2015 when, for the first time in human history, the number of people aged over 60 was larger than the number of babies born. So, population ageing refers to the fact that people are living longer, women are giving birth to fewer children (hence the higher average age), and people are moving around the globe so much that it is affecting the population balance. Let’s look at these three conditions that contribute to population ageing in more detail.

      •Fertility: The number of children being born per woman (referred to as the ‘total fertility rate’) has been decreasing around the globe and specifically in western and northern Europe, North America and East Asia.

      •Delayed mortality: Populations of these same regions have experienced significant increases in life expectancy over the past century. One hundred years ago a woman born in northern or western Europe could have expected to live to be about 50. Today, she will most likely be over 80 at time of death. Her children can expect to live to be over 100 years old. This is an increase of over 30 years in one century. It is helpful to think of this in simple, global terms, provided by leading critical gerontologist, Chris Phillipson. So, in 1900 1 per cent of the world’s population was aged 65 or over. By 2000 it was 7 per cent (Phillipson, 2013). This does not allow for regional variation. In some countries, such as Japan and Italy, more than 20 per cent of the population is aged 65 or over. Table 1.1 illustrates these regional differences.

      •Migration: The third driver of population change is migration. This does not seem as obvious a cause of population change as extended life expectancy and falling fertility. However, people’s decisions to stay in or leave a certain country can have a major impact on the population balance. For instance, one of the main ways that older populations in western Europe can maintain their demographic balance is to ‘import’ younger people from eastern European countries such as Poland which have traditionally have high levels of emigration. The result is that the population in Poland is now ageing quickly as older people are left behind following the exodus of young people to pursue higher wages and better prospects in richer countries of the European Union (World Bank, 2012).

      There are so many interesting points to note about this representation of life expectancy around the globe in Table 1.1. You will see that we use the Human Development Index (HDI) to show not just how long people live, but also the quality of life they are likely to enjoy. The HDI was put forward by leading social scientists such as Amartya Sen, who claim that there must be a strong connection between the means and the ends of human development (Anand and Sen, 1994). Therefore, the HDI is a measure of whether a country’s economic progress, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is accompanied by a society which allows each individual human being to develop their achievements, freedoms and capabilities. The HDI measure is a score between zero and one, offering a useful shorthand for understanding whether human beings are thriving in a specific country. Countries with a score nearer to zero are more likely to have high levels of infant mortality, low levels of access to basic education, and higher maternal mortality rates (for example, Ethiopia and Sierra Leone). On the other hand, countries with low infant mortality, higher levels of tertiary education and literacy in the population will score closer to 1 (for example, Japan and Switzerland). By including HDI in our table of life expectancies, we hope to open your eyes to the possibility that countries with the oldest populations, both in terms of life expectancy and percentage of the population aged 65 or over, often offer the best opportunities for human development.

Table 1.1: Life expectancy in selected countries

Region	Country	Life expectancy at birth	Human Development Index	% Population aged 65 or over
Europe	Switzerland	83.6	0.944	18.6
	Italy	82.2	0.880	23.3
	France	82.0	0.901	20.1
	United Kingdom	81.2	0.922	18.7
	Germany	80.5	0.936	21.7
	Poland	76.7	0.865	17.3
	Russia	70.1	0.816	14.6
North America	Canada	82.5	0.926	17.4
	Cuba	79.9	0.777	15.2
	United States	78.5	0.924	15.8
	Mexico	77.3	0.774	7.1
	Jamaica	76.1	0.732	9.9
	Haiti	63.0	0.498	4.9
South America	Chile	79.7	0.843	11.5