Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Names: Rausand, Marvin, author. | Haugen, Stein, author.
Title: Risk assessment : theory, methods, and applications / Marvin
Rausand, Stein Haugen.
Description: Second edition. | Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, 2020. |
Series: Wiley series in statistics in practice | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019041379 (print) | LCCN 2019041380 (ebook) | ISBN
9781119377238 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119377283 (adobe pdf) | ISBN
9781119377221 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Technology–Risk assessment. | Risk assessment.
Classification: LCC T174.5 .R37 2020 (print) | LCC T174.5 (ebook) | DDC
363.1/02–dc22
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019041379
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019041380
Cover Design: Wiley
Cover Image: © Soloviova Liudmyla/Shutterstock
Dedication
To Hella, Guro and Idunn, Emil and Tiril
To Jorunn, Trine, Ingrid, Kristian and Brage, Nora and Alma
Preface
This book gives a comprehensive introduction to risk analysis and risk assessment, with focus on the theory and the main methods for such analyses. The objects studied are technical or sociotechnical systems, and we delimit our attention to potential, sudden, and major accidents. Day‐to‐day safety problems and negative health effects due to long‐term exposure are outside the scope of the book. Topics, such as financial risk are also outside the scope. More detailed objectives and delimitations of the book are supplied at the end of Chapter 1.
What is Changed From the First Edition?
This second edition is a major update of the first edition (Rausand 2011). Almost all sections have been reorganized and rewritten. The most significant changes include:
Chapters 1 and 2 are totally rewritten and many definitions have been rephrased.
Material related to the risk assessment process is merged into a new Chapter 3.
Aspects related to the study object and its delimitation are presented in a new Chapter 4.
The section on Petri nets is removed.
The STAMP accident model and the STPA method are covered in a new section.
Additional new chapters cover:– Risk analysis and management in operation– Security assessment– Life cycle use of risk analysis
Exercise problems are provided at the end of all relevant chapters.
The glossary of terms has been removed. Instead, definitions are highlighted in the subject index.
An author index has been added.
Supplementary Information on the Internet
An immense amount of relevant information is today available on the Internet, and many of the aspects discussed in this book may be found as books, reports, notes, tutorials, or slides. The quality of this information is varying and ranging from very high to very low, the terminology is often not consistent, and it may sometimes be a challenge to read some of these Internet resources. After having read this book, we hope it will be easier to search for supplementary information, to understand this information, and to judge its quality.
Intended Audience
The book is written primarily for engineers and engineering students, and most of the examples and applications are related to technology and technical systems. Still, we believe that other readers may also find the book useful. There are two groups that are our primary audience:
The book was originally written as a textbook for university courses in risk analysis and risk assessment at NTNU. This second edition is based on experience gained from use of the first edition, at NTNU and other universities.
The book is in addition intended to be a guide for practical risk assessments. The various methods are therefore described sufficiently such that you should be able to use the method after having read the description. Each method is described according to the same structure. The method descriptions are, as far as possible, self‐contained, and it should therefore not be necessary to read the entire book to apply the individual methods.
Readers should have a basic course in probability theory. A brief introduction to probability theory is provided in Appendix A. The reader should refer to this appendix to get an understanding of what knowledge is expected.
Selection of Methods
A wide range of theories and methods have been developed for risk analysis. All these cannot be covered in an introductory text. The objective of the book is not to show how knowledgeable the authors are, but to present theory, methods, and knowledge that will be useful for you as a risk analyst. When selecting material to cover, we focus on methods that:
Are commonly used in industry or in other application areas
Give the analyst insight and increases her understanding of the system (such that system weaknesses can be identified at an early stage of the analysis)
Provide the analyst with genuine insight into system behavior
Can be used for hand‐calculation (at least for small systems)
Can be explained rather easily to, and understood by non‐risk specialists and managers.
Both authors have been engaged in applications related to the offshore oil and gas industry, and many examples therefore come from this industry. The methods described and many of the examples are equally suitable for other industries and application areas.
Use of Software Programs
Programs are required for practical analyses, but we refrain from promoting any particular programs. A listing of suppliers of relevant programs may be found on the book companion site.
Organization
This book is divided into 20 chapters and two appendices. Chapters 1–9 focus on the basic concepts and the theory behind risk analysis and risk assessment.