Himself Alone: David Trimble and the Ordeal Of Unionism. Dean Godson

man.⁴ Much of the political class agreed with this analysis. Thus, Jack Allen recalls that much as John Taylor was disliked by some, the majority of the party officers thought he would win – with or without Trimble in the race.⁵ The NIO agreed: according to Sir John Wheeler, the security minister, Ancram’s senior officials wanted Taylor precisely because he was seen as a good ‘deal-maker’.⁶

      Trimble soon weighed the pros and cons of running. His plus points, as he saw them, were that he was articulate, could hold his own on television, and because over the previous year he had distanced himself ‘slightly’ from the Frameworks proposals. He reckoned these points would weigh heavily with the UUP’s unique electoral college, despite the fact that he was the youngest and most junior of the UUP MPs and was without formal standing within the Loyal Orders (beyond the reputation which he had acquired at Drumcree). If the choice had been up to the populace at large, Maginnis would be the victor. He enjoyed a good reputation amongst Unionists on security issues – the ex-UDR Major had been the intended victim of at least a dozen assassination attempts – but without compromising his non-sectarian credentials (as was evidenced by his success in holding the constituency of Fermanagh-South Tyrone, with its narrow Roman Catholic majority, in successive Westminster elections). And thanks to his personable manner, he was able to communicate on southern Irish television in a way that few other Unionists could match. Indeed many Unionists believed that he was far too willing to treat with the South, as exemplified by what they saw as his excessive generosity in the Strand II ‘basket’ of the 1991–2 talks in Dublin. If it were up to the MPs, Ross was reckoned to be the likely winner; and if it were up to the councillors and the business community, Taylor seemed to be favourite. But none of these groups formed the electoral college. Because the decision would be made by the Ulster Unionist Council, an 860-strong body with representatives from all of the then seventeen constituencies and other affiliated bodies such as the Orange Order and the Young Unionists, Trimble might stand a chance. The UUC was, he then reasoned, full of people with a greater knowledge than the man in the street, but was at the same time possessed in his eyes of a detachment which the full-time MPs and councillors did not have. In so far as there was an Orange constituency – and it was wider than just the Order’s own delegates, since ordinary branch representatives might also be individual members – Trimble calculated that he had it sewn up. This, he maintains passionately, was not because of Drumcree but because of his work for the Ulster Society. His doubts were, therefore, not about his viability as a candidate, but whether he actually wanted the position itself at this juncture. He knew that it would be an uphill struggle to accomplish anything and, in any case, 1995 was scarcely the best year to become UUP leader after the debacle of the Frameworks Documents.⁷

      Such apparent ambivalence accounts for the initial reports that Trimble had ruled himself out of the race. Thus, The Times editorial on the day after Molyneaux’s resignation stated that ‘it is regrettable that Mr Trimble, MP for Upper Bann, seems disinclined to stand’ and on the back of that decision decided to endorse Taylor.⁸ What Trimble had actually said to the journalists was that he did not consider himself to be a runner, but added that ‘if other people are keen for me to run, then I will give it serious consideration’. In retrospect, it looks like a classic piece of political ham-acting (‘if the people want me, who am I to refuse?’). According to Gordon Lucy’s private diary of the campaign, Trimble was annoyed that the journalists, with the exception of Dick Grogan and Frank Millar in the Irish Times on 30 August and Victor Gordon of the Portadown Times, had failed to pick up on the nuances. Gordon, writing without a by-line in the local free-sheet called the Craigavon Echo on 30 August 1995 also correctly divined that Trimble had not ruled himself out of the contest. In the Portadown Times of 1 September, Gordon also reported that Trimble was ‘95%’ certain to announce his candidature. Trimble stated that since he had said he ‘might’ run, ‘my ’phone has been red hot with messages of support’. Trimble asked Lucy whether he should run, and Lucy said that of course he would support him and work for him – but that it was his decision and that he would have to live with the consequences of it. Lucy subsequently learned from Daphne Trimble that this was the wrong answer, since she wanted him to say ‘yes’.⁹

      Trimble was left with the impression that his natural supporters felt let down by his apparent reluctance, and that he would damage himself if he did not run. He was also discovering that in the eyes of many delegates, John Taylor was not universally popular. According to Lucy, Trimble finally made up his mind to enter the race on 30 August. The Upper Bann MP then telephoned John Taylor and told him that he would be going forward as a candidate. Taylor replied that he would be sorry to see this happen. Taylor’s then aide, Steven King, states that Taylor did not in fact think that he could win after Trimble entered the race, and that henceforth his heart was never quite in it.¹⁰ Trimble discussed his platform with Lucy: it was not so much an appeal for more right-wing Unionism as for more proactive Unionism, for a new style at least as much as new substance. Trimble planned to announce his candidature at Belfast’s Europa Hotel on 1 September. He knew that he would have no heavyweight endorsements, neither from fellow MPs, nor party officers, nor from any constituency chairmen save his own, George Savage. As an outsider, as it it were, he was certain of one thing: he did not wish to repeat the errors of John Redwood’s failed bid for the Conservative leadership earlier in the summer. Indeed, he told Gordon Lucy and John Hunter that their presence at the launch would have the same effect upon his bid as the support of Teresa Gorman and Tony Marlow had on the challenge of the former Welsh Secretary. Instead, inspired by Nicholas Jones’ book Soundbites and Spin Doctors: How Politicians Manipulate the Media – and Vice Versa he opted for a bit of DIY choreography. He decided that he would be accompanied by four relatively unknown figures, all of whom would represent portions of the new Unionist coalition which he was assembling. They included Elaine McClure (a young woman); Lt Commander Bill Martin (whose service background symbolised the traditional backbone of the party); George Savage, his constituency chairman and a farmer (thus seeking to corral the substantial agricultural vote); and Nigel Connor of the Queen’s University Unionists (to emphasise his appeal to youth). From there, Trimble and Lucy repaired to Hunter’s house off the Upper Malone Road to plot out strategy. Two crucial steps were taken. First, an alphabetical list of all UUC delegates was obtained from Glengall Street, so that he could send out A Personal Message From David Trimble. The package made much of the complimentary remarks which Trimble received from both The Daily Telegraph and The Times: a key Trimble theme was the notion that it was crucial for Unionists to influence key decision-makers and opinion-formers in London, rather than sit there and let change envelop them. Second, Hunter and Lucy, who had assisted in Drew Nelson’s 1992 campaign in South Down, were convinced of the merits of telephone canvassing – still a new concept in Northern Ireland, at least in Unionist circles, where many traditionalists thought it not quite the done thing. But Lucy and Hunter, correctly, believed that attitudes towards use of the telephone were changing, even amongst the older generation where resentment of such intrusions tended to be greatest. Accordingly, extra telephone lines were installed in Trimble’s Lurgan office. Two young women were recruited to do the telephone canvassing as volunteers.¹¹

      The professionalism of the Trimble campaign, though scarcely sophisticated by standards elsewhere, contrasted with the relative amateurism of its rivals’ efforts. Whereas Trimble’s team would ‘cold call’ anybody, Taylor would only ring those he already knew. Taylor’s campaign suffered a further blow when he appeared on BBC Northern Ireland’s Spotlight programme at 10:45 p.m. on the eve of the poll on Thursday 7 September. There, he attacked Trimble for ‘prancing in the streets with Ian Paisley’. By this, Taylor was seeking to appeal to that segment of the UUP electorate which rejected Paisley’s populist style. Often, this would have been a correct appraisal of the party’s mood, but Drumcree I was a spontaneous popular eruption which, like the UWC strike of 1974, enjoyed an