Exhibit P.2 Demographic Transition
Source: Population: A Lively Introduction, 4th edition, by Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population Reference Bureau.
Exhibit P.3 Birthrates and Death Rates
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010).
Exhibit P.4 Distribution of the Projected Older Population by Age for the United States, 2010–2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010).
Note: Line indicates the year that each age group is the largest proportion of the older population.
Exhibit P.5The Dramatic Aging of the United States, 1900–2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Adapted from Himes (2001).
Exhibit P.6 Projected Population of Adults Ages 65 and Over by Race in the United States, 2010–2050
Source: Figure 4 from U.S. Census Bureau (2014).
Note: Unless otherwise specified, data refer to the population who reported a race alone. Populations for each race group include both Hispanics and non-Hispanics, as Hispanics may be of any race.
The challenge is to change our way of anticipating and planning for the future by thinking critically about our underlying assumptions. This task of critical thinking may be more difficult in gerontology than in other fields because of the familiarity and deeply personal nature of aging. Revolutionary changes took place in the 20th century, but most of us tend to assume that aging and the human life course have remained the same. Despite our commonsense perceptions, however, history and the human sciences tell us that the process of aging is not something fixed, but is both changeable and subject to interpretation.
Taking a more critical and thoughtful stance, we know that “stages of life” have been viewed differently by different societies, in different cultural contexts, and in different historical periods. Even in our own society, the experience of growing older is not uniform but means different things to individuals depending on their gender, ethnicity, social class, and other dimensions of difference and diversity. From this perspective, a familiar practice such as retirement turns out to be less than a century old and now is in the process of being reexamined and redefined. Even in the biology of aging, scientists are engaged in serious debate about whether it is possible to extend the maximum human lifespan from what we have known in the past.
In short, wherever we look—biology, economics, the social and behavioral sciences, and public policy—we see that aging, despite its supposed familiarity, cannot be taken as a fixed fact of human life. Both individual aging and population aging are socially and historically constructed, subject to interpretation, and therefore open to controversy, debate, and change.
It is astonishing to realize that more than half of all the human beings who have ever lived beyond age 65 are alive today. What aging will mean in the 21st century is not something we can predict merely by extrapolating from the present and the past. Still less can the study of aging consist of an accumulation of facts to be assimilated, as if knowing these facts could somehow prepare us for the future. The changes are too significant for such an approach.
What we need most of all is to consider facts about individual and population aging in a wider context: to understand that facts and theories are all partial, provisional, and, therefore, subject to interpretation and revision. That is the second major reason that the study of aging in this book is presented in the form of controversy and debate, offering all of us an opportunity to reflect on and construct an old age worthy of “our future selves.”
Descriptions of Images and Figures
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In the line graph, the horizontal axis ranges from 1980 to 2014, and the vertical axis is labeled life expectancy in years, ranging from 60 to 100 in increments of 20. The graph shows life expectancy of Black male, Black female, White male, and White female. Approximate data from the graph are tabulated as follows.
The horizontal bar graph is titled 2014. The horizontal bar graph is labeled life expectancy in years, and ranges from 0 to 100 in increments of 20. The vertical axis lists male and females. The graph plots data for Hispanic or Latino; White, not Hispanic; and Black, not Hispanic. Data from the graph are tabulated as follows.
Back to Figure
In all the graphs, the age of the working population is between 15 to 18 and 55 to 59.
In the first graph, the population of males and females decreases as age increases. Text reads, Early. Each successive age group, from 0 to 4 to 85 plus, is smaller than the preceding age group. The working age population, shown in medium dark shading, has to provide for a comparatively large population of children. However, children can help their parents in growing food, collecting firewood, etcetera.
In the second graph, the population of males and females increases as age increases, reaches a maximum at age 30 to 34, and decreases. The population of females is slightly greater than that of males. Text reads, Intermediate. The age pyramid is dominated by the working age groups. Given appropriate conditions, low unemployment, etcetera, the working age population is potentially well able to support the old and the young. Notice here and in the following diagram the left-right asymmetry. This is because women tend to live longer than men.
In the third graph, the population of males and females are almost constant across age. The population of females is slightly greater than males. Text reads, Late. Now the pyramid is almost rectangular in shape. The working age population needs to support a large population of older people.
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The horizontal axis is labeled Time. The four stages are stage 1, stage 2, stage 3, and stage 4. The vertical axis is labeled birth or death rates. The curve for birth rate starts at a high value of the vertical axis, remains constant in stage 1, decreases in a concave-down manner across stages 2 and 3, and remains constant in stage 4. The curve for death rate starts from a point just below the origin of the curve for birth rate, remains constant in stage 1, decreases in a concave-up manner across stages 2 and 3, and remains constant in stage 4. The region between the curves is shaded. The region between the curves in stages 2 and 3 is labeled, natural increase.
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The horizontal axis ranges from 2010 to 2050 in increments of 10. The vertical axis is labeled percent, and ranges from 0 to 100 in increments of 10. Approximate data from the graph are tabulated as follows.
The