A Time Traveller's Guide to South Africa in 2030. Frans Cronje

planning teams apart from weak ones and robust companies from less successful ones – especially those invested in volatile emerging markets.

      Many of the companies we have worked with have found that developing a strategy for four scenarios is not actually much more demanding than developing a strategy for one. They can then confidently adopt the strategy that aligns most closely with the scenario they deem most probable. But they are securely positioned to switch strategy at a moment’s notice if there are sudden policy or market changes and another scenario becomes more probable. Compare their position with that of a company that rather chooses to rely on the single forecast of a consultant who has the confidence to say that he knows how the future will evolve. When markets shift and policies change, that company may find itself in a crisis. The forecast they choose to rely on has no value. They have to go back to the drawing board, do new research, and develop new strategies for the changed environment. However, the company that planned through scenarios will be many months, even years, ahead of them. The same applies to families planning for their futures in South Africa.

      In this book we are going to follow the methodology given here. The outcome will be a set of precise descriptions of what life in our country will be like in 2030. Each will be accompanied by five easily identifiable indicators of which scenario it will be. The result will be to provide more than a decade of advance warning of where we are all headed – more than enough time to make a plan to capitalise on the best that South Africa will offer and hedge against the worst. There will be no excuse to say we did not see it coming.