At a recent workshop addressing job creation, a diverse body of interested parties identified the key uncertainties of job creation in the area as the commitment and involvement of the communities within the area, and the level of investment from outside into the area. From this, four music-themed scenarios were developed:
“PHILHARMONIC ORCHESTRA”
Potential investors, excited by the display of enthusiasm and entrepreneurship of the community in the region, agree to build a series of holiday resorts and develop factories and commercial properties that will draw on the experience and facilities in the region. This attracts more investment and attention, resulting in a boost to tourism and the local economy, providing jobs and opportunities for the community. The orchestra, made up of different clusters of skilled instrumentalists, work together in harmony to produce a world-class symphonic sound.
“CREATIVE DISCORD”
Excited by the arrival of potential investors, the local community put on a display of spontaneous enthusiasm and entrepreneurship in the form of establishing a network of separate markets. The investors, for whatever reason, decline to invest; but the community, now aware of their own potential, maintain the momentum and the region becomes a hotbed of entrepreneurial enterprises. The result: the communities play different tunes at different tempos. Although the overall sound is discordant, each group of players is bowled along by their own enthusiasm as they toot their particular horns.
“LONELY BUSKER”
Investors, for whatever reason, decline to invest. The enthusiasm of the communities is low to non-existent. Land issues are a major problem and no parties are willing to address the issues actively. Like the lonely busker on the street pavement, playing his harmonica with his cap in his hand and hoping for the odd cent from a passer-by, each community survives by eking out a living.
“DEAFENING SILENCE”
Potential investors are excited about the area, see opportunities and plunge in. But there has been no prior consultation with the communities to examine what is best for the area. Each party has different expectations, with the consequence that investors stand over their subsequently abandoned factories and resorts like a conductor facing an empty orchestra pit.
Through the looking glass
When Alice protested through the looking glass that you can’t believe impossible things, the Queen set the issue straight: “I daresay you haven’t had much practice. When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Lewis Carroll lit up the lives of many Victorian children by taking them into his world of make-believe. Coincidentally, in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, hedgehogs feature as the balls in royal games of croquet with flamingoes as the mallets and soldiers – bent double – as the hoops. Since all three prefer to move of their own volition rather than behave as inert objects, the games usually end in chaos with the Queen calling for the heads of all those who misbehaved, and the king subsequently pardoning them.
The secret of successful scenario planning is not just the richness of the story line or the striking nature of the title. The content of the scenarios must also be relevant for them to come alive, not only in outer space, but also in inner space. Each person within a group has his or her own model of the real world and what is relevant based on his or her experiences. This is referred to as the person’s “microcosm”. The real world and its relevant parts are then the “macrocosm”. Scenarios link the world of perception with the world of fact. In order to gain new insight from scenarios, one has to identify which information is of strategic importance and then transform it into material which penetrates the consciousness of the people for whom the information has potential consequences. It may not be new information but something that is already known and is right in front of the nose of the observers. It is just being misperceived. That is why Pierre Wack called scenario planning “the gentle art of reperceiving”.
To put it in business terms: a company’s perception of its business environment (microcosm) is as important as the actual state of the market (macrocosm) because its strategy comes from this perception. To be effective, then, the real target of scenario planning should be the microcosm of the decision makers. Unless their mental images of reality are influenced, the impact of scenarios will be negligible. In short: unless their minds are opened, their options will be closed. Pierre Wack cited the example of the oil scenarios he produced for Shell before the first oil price shock in the early 1970s. Although they were suitably prophetic in highlighting the instability of the market, they didn’t connect with the senior executives of Shell. Pierre realised that unless he uncovered the managerial mind-set, his writing of further scenarios would be useless. He therefore did a whole series of interviews with managers to unearth what really made them tick and what language should be used to communicate new ideas to them. Consequently, Pierre’s next set of scenarios on the second oil price shock, as we mentioned earlier on, really struck home.
1-2-3-4
It would be remiss of us as authors if we didn’t end the scenario section with a golf story. After all, a round of golf has eighteen stories – one for each hole – and if you include the drink in the pub afterwards, nineteen. We have stressed on several occasions how scenario planning should embrace the unthinkable. Well, a photograph hanging in the corridor of the Durban Country Club reveals four golfers who played together and achieved just that. On the same par-four hole, the eighteenth, one player got an albatross, which is three under par and therefore a one; he drove the green. The second player got an eagle, which is two under par and therefore a two. The third and fourth players only managed a birdie and a par, in other words a three and a four. Now, would anyone in the entire golfing world ever write a scenario for that? It happened on 21 April 1994.
Options
Food for thought
When Maggie Thatcher was British Prime Minister, she had a favourite phrase to overcome opposition in the Cabinet to any of her views – TINA, or there is no alternative. Hopefully, this section will demonstrate that TEMBA is a far better principle than TINA: there exist many better alternatives, all of which should be taken into consideration before you make the actual decision.
If you’re the type of person who thinks we should cut to the chase and just make decisions, here’s an example to prove that even you are susceptible to our type of matrix thinking. You have new neighbours who, to get acquainted, ask you out to a restaurant you’ve never been to before. The rules of the game for the evening are that you can only choose to eat what’s on the menu of the selected restaurant and you have to be finished by closing time. The key uncertainties are whether the food and the service are good or bad at this unfamiliar restaurant, and whether your new neighbours are stimulating or dull The scenarios flowing from these uncertainties are: (1) an evening where you doze off from tedium while wondering whether you have eaten something that was off; (2) a marvellous conversation with your neighbours during which you joke that next time you’ll choose another restaurant; (3) you share little in common but you will return the invitation someday because the meal was outstanding; and (4) a crackerjack evening where the food was wonderful and you get along famously.
Now for the options. They kick in when the waiter brings you the menu. Decisions! Decisions! But before you make them, you play the options through your mind and across your taste buds. Shall I start with salad and then have a steak; or shall I go for soup and then have fish? When my neighbour asks me whether I like white or red wine, which shall I say?Am I going to finish with a sticky tart or cheese? Etc., etc. Yet, menus have many more applications today. Companies offer employees menus where for a certain monetary sum they will give you the chance of having a nice car but you then have to scrimp on the medical aid; or, vice versa, you can take lots of health insurance but then you drive around in a tin can. For hedgehogs who are used to being told exactly what their employment conditions are, the introduction of choice is bewildering. They are uncomfortable with options!
But