The Mind of a Fox
Chantell Ilbury - Clem Sunter
Human & Rousseau
THIS BOOK IS DEDICATED TO
Our families who are our foundation;
Our friends who stand by us in good
and bad times;
Our colleagues who assisted us in producing
the book in such a professional manner;
and
The fox within you – whoever you are,
wherever you are and whatever you do.
The fox knows many things – the hedgehog one big one.
ARCHILOCUS, C. 650 B.C.
A fox once saw a crow with a piece of cheese in her beak.
He was hungry, so he resolved to acquire it for himself
“What a beautiful bird you are,” he cried, “I am sure you
must have a beautiful voice to match your body. Will
you not sing to me?” The crow was flattered. She opened
her beak and gave a harsh croak. Down fell the cheese,
whereupon the fox pounced upon it and ate it.
AESOP’S FABLES, C. 620 B.C.
The Mind of a FOX: Scenario Planning in Action
Many of the world’s true leaders in politics, business and sport have succeeded by adopting the mental processes typical to the ingenuity of one of nature’s most resourceful animals – the fox. Are these mental processes extraordinary? No. they are perfectly natural, and can be a powerful tool in scenario planning and making decisions.
By drawing on fascinating examples found in business, nature, science, space and sport, Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter provide a crisp and entertaining analysis of the mind of a fox and identify the two questions you should ask before committing yourself to action: what do you and do you not control? What is certain and uncertain about the future? They have constructed an ingenious matrix around these questions, which assists you to identify the rules of the game; assess the key uncertainties; paint scenarios; evaluate realistic options; and thereby make effective decisions. Essentially, the matrix will give you the edge: The Mind of a Fox.
Introduction to the Third Impression
We normally associate 911 with an emergency call. It also represents September 11. At 8:45 am (New York time) on that day in 2001, the world changed forever. This was the moment when the first of two hijacked planes slammed into the World Trade Center. Another one hit the Pentagon and a fourth crashed in Pennsylvania. No terrorist attack has ever caused such a shock. The unthinkable had happened – and it wasn’t a movie.
When we wrote this book in the first part of 2001, we included a letter to President Bush. In it, we warned him that the key uncertainty during his tenure was nuclear terrorism, more specifically the possibility of terrorists planting a nuclear device in a Western city. While the tools of destruction and method of delivery were different to what we had envisaged, the impact was just as devastating. Nothing could have demonstrated the power of scenario planning more effectively than this terrible tragedy. We could never have captured it in a forecast, but it was possible to provide a warning in the form of a scenario.
Indeed, the logic contained in our two scenarios – “Friendly Planet” and “Gilded Cage” – is now more pertinent than ever. The natural temptation for the “rich old millions” in the West must be to batten down the hatches and isolate themselves in a Gilded Cage. We all know that security is the most basic of all human needs. However, this could lead to an even more divided world as the gap between the “rich old millions” and the “poor young billions” widens further. The increasing tension and stress associated with this scenario will ironically make it more likely than before that another evil act of the same – or perhaps even greater – magnitude will be perpetrated by terrorists. No advances in technology, no improvements in intelligence and security management systems can render an individual nation impregnable against attack. The terrorist will always find a chink in the bars of the cage, however thick you make them, to pass through and commit his foul deed. Moreover, the knowledge of how to manufacture weapons of mass destruction is itself indestructible. And it will continue to spread. Meanwhile, inside the cage, a superabundance of soft targets awaits the terrorist. The growing interdependencies and networks of a modern society make it increasingly vulnerable to dislocation and attack, particularly by people who are prepared to die in the process.
The only way to minimise – not entirely eliminate – the threat of further outrages is for America to take the lead in building a Friendly Planet. This involves more than a military victory over the terrorists. The realisation has to dawn that to be a secure winner, you cannot be surrounded by resentful losers. The preferred scenario is therefore one in which, as we say in the book, “the rich old millions resolve to find common ground with the poor young billions to eradicate poverty and disease, to tackle problems of the environment, to bring international criminal syndicates to justice and to root out dangerous terrorist organisations.” Otherwise, the future is bleak. Anything goes. And it would be unwise to dismiss any 911 call as a hoax.
Chantell Ilbury
Clem Sunter
September 2001
Eye of the tiger or fox of the fairway?
Have you ever watched the world’s finest golfer blast the ball effortlessly from a tee, then follow his crisp iron shot at the pin with a perfect putt and think “he really needs to jack up his game”? Of course you don’t, but he does, even when he is about to win the 2001 Masters and have all four Major trophies sitting on his mantelpiece at the same time. This is Tiger Woods – the fox of the fairway. Why a fox? He is cunning, bright, curious and he reacts with his environment. The New York Times once described foxes as “the most beautiful and interesting animals to observe”.
The common fox in Europe has reddish fur with black patches behind the ears and a light tip to its brush-like tail Underneath, it sports a white waistcoat and dark leggings. Including the tail, the animal is just over a metre long. It is a small but beautiful wild dog, the eyes having a watchful gleam quite different to a domesticated dog. The whole demeanour of the animal is one of alertness, as if it would be up and off at the first sign of danger.
Beautiful – yes; but interesting? Foxes have many dens, sometimes called earths, within their territory. They use them to their best advantage because dens give them options. Foxes normally choose the most secure den in which to give birth to and nurture their young, but they maintain the other dens in case the secure one is put at risk. They are continually foraging for new sources of food and eat almost anything – rodents, rabbits, birds and insects as well as fruit and berries in season. They are highly adaptable to different terrains, ranging from dense forests to cultivated farmland. In fact, they can adapt easily to urban environments and change their eating habits accordingly. Scavenging from refuse bins is an urban pastime. They are so resourceful that the landed gentry in England find them fun to hunt; but maybe not for much longer if the politicians have their way. Foxes have extraordinarily sensitive noses that can pick up an interesting scent a mile off. Even the spiky exterior of the humble hedgehog can’t protect it from a hungry fox.
Which brings us to hedgehogs. They, on the other hand, live in one burrow all their lives. For them a single home is their security – nice and warm and cosy, and generally quite big. Hedgehogs hibernate during winter, effectively cutting themselves off from the outside world. They have plump little bodies with very short legs that hardly raise them from the ground. They are all of thirty centimetres long, covered with sharp, greyish brown spikes and blessed with a pig-like snout. Unlike foxes, hedgehogs like to live where there is certainty in the availability of food. Their favourite fare includes insects, but they are also partial to snails