Scales on War. Bob Scales

of foreign fighters into ISIS. As witnessed by the assault on the ISIS-held cities of Tikrit and Ramadi, Iranian advisers throughout the Middle East are getting better at their craft. Radicalized fighters from the Chechen and Bosnian conflicts have joined the ISIS team as mentors. The terrorists of the last decade used to generate one-shot suicide bombers of little strategic consequence. Now they have learned to craft fighting units, and they teach weapons and tactics very well. Second, ISIS and Hezbollah have made the bloody Syrian war into a first-rate training ground. They are exploiting that terrible war to select leaders, practice tactics, train to maneuver on the urban battlefield, and build political and military institutions with depth, mass, and resiliency. Perversely, having these two Islamist organizations in conflict makes each better, not weaker.

      All of these new armies talk to each other, even occasionally across ethno-sectarian divides. Social media and strategic intercessions in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq have created a body of well-informed and battle-hardened leaders and Soldiers who actually share lessons learned. While these new armies are becoming more professional, they still retain the terrorist’s specialty in disciplined killing. Terrorist killing used to be mostly random. But now killings are carefully orchestrated, media-driven executions of surrendering Soldiers, political leaders, and former leaders of the opposition. Strategic killing gives them the psychological high ground often well before the clash of arms begins.

      What we have seen in Gaza, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Libya, and Iraq is not only sobering but a cautionary tale for those Beltway gurus who are already calling for a pivot to Asia and a war against the Chinese. The truth is that America’s battle against radicalism is now a world, not just a regional, war. It is unfinished and going poorly. Of course, U.S. Soldiers and Marines are still the global gold standard in tactical competence. But their comparative advantage has diminished considerably over the past fourteen years of war against an adaptive, dedicated enemy willing to learn and to die. Inevitably, terrorists groups will amalgamate and turn into armies. Given time, ISIS will become a sovereign state, pairing their fanatical dedication with newly acquired tactical skills. Sadly, we are giving them time and room to get much better. Eventually, any attempt to renew intervention into the ISIS heartland will generate casualties on a different scale—as the Israelis and the Iraqis have learned painfully.

      Then there is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla hiding in the Middle Eastern closet: nuclear weapons. No one with half a brain would deny that the Iranians will build a bomb. The ayatollahs have learned from their Iraqi neighbor and their North Korean ally that the only certain deterrent against intrusion by the United States is a nuke. They have learned from watching India and Pakistan that world approbation against new nuclear powers fades eventually. To a state that fears the United States and has the technology, not joining the nuclear club would be the height of foolishness. When Iran gets the bomb, the paranoia and extreme social insensitivity of its theological elites would certainly tempt them to use it, most likely against Israel.

      The social insensitivity of Middle Eastern tyrants is off the charts. Their religiously driven ideologies and brutal worldview removes them from the community of civilized leaders. Their ability to close their world to social sensitivities of others means that only a protracted and bloody confrontation will end the horror and inhumanity of their ambitions. We have met our enemy. We do not like it, because wars in the American era do not join well with a protracted conflict against an enemy driven by superior will and a willingness to die. Colonel Yahara would understand. He would know that only Soldiers with rifles and a will to win in the close fight will defeat them.