People may lose 30 minutes of life expectancy for every two cigarettes they smoke, for being 11 pounds overweight, and for eating an extra portion of red meat daily. David Spiegelhalter6, from the University of Cambridge, has coined the concept of a “microlife," defined as 30 minutes of life expectancy – as a practical substitution for the statistical concept of the hazard ratio. He computed that a million half hours -- or 57 years -- roughly corresponds to a lifetime of adult exposure to any given hazard. Further, he noted that at current mortality rates in the UK, a 35-year-old can expect to live another 55 years or 481,000 hours or very nearly a million microlives. Spiegelhalter has calculated that people may lose 30 minutes of life expectancy for every two cigarettes they smoke, for being 11 pounds overweight, and for eating an extra portion of red meat daily. Dr Spiegelhalter submits that this approach "allows a general, non-academic audience to make rough but fair comparisons between the sizes of chronic risks, and is based on a metaphor of 'speed of ageing.'
Potentially 37 million premature deaths over 15 years may be prevented, simply if people modulated six specific modifiable risk factors. Various countries aim to reduce premature mortality from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)-namely – cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes. These nations have targeted to reduce these disease incidences by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025. Potentially 37 million premature deaths over 15 years may be prevented, simply if nations adopt the anti-aging medical model. Majid Ezzati7 from Imperial College London (United Kingdom), and colleagues report that this target may be achievable by the reduction of six specific modifiable risk factors. Using country-level data on deaths and risk factors and epidemiological models, the researchers estimate the number of deaths that could be prevented between 2010 and 2025 by reducing the burden of each of the six risk factors to globally-agreed target levels -- tobacco use (30% reduction and a more ambitious 50% reduction), alcohol use (10% reduction), salt intake (30% reduction), high blood pressure (25% reduction), and halting the rise in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes. Overall, the findings suggest that meeting the targets for all six risk factors would reduce the risk of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs by 22% in men and 19% for women in 2025 compared to what they were in 2010. Worldwide, this improvement is equivalent to delaying or preventing at least 16 million deaths in people aged 30-70 years and 21 million in those aged 70 years or older over 15 years. The authors predict that the largest benefits will come from reducing high blood pressure and tobacco use. They calculate that a more ambitious 50% reduction in prevalence of smoking by 2025, rather than the current target of 30%, would reduce the risk of dying prematurely by more than 24% in men and by 20% in women. The study investigators submit that: “If the agreed risk factor targets are met, premature mortality from the four main NCDs will decrease to levels that are close to the 25×25 target, with most of these benefits seen in low-income and middle-income countries.”
A steady rise in life expectancy over the past two decades is accompanied by prolonged health in later life. David Cutler8, from Harvard University (Massachusetts, USA), and colleagues analyzed data collected between 1991 and 2009 from nearly 90,000 individuals who responded to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), allowing researchers to link survey responses to participants' Medicare records for the rest of their life – effectively enabling a determination as to exactly how far participants were from death when they answered the survey. "With the exception of the year or two just before death, people are healthier than they used to be," observes the lead investigator, elaborating that: "Effectively, the period of time in which we're in poor health is being compressed until just before the end of life. So where we used to see people who are very, very sick for the final six or seven years of their life, that's now far less common. People are living to older ages and we are adding healthy years, not debilitated ones. …People are much better educated about their health now."
Successes and Sound-Alikes
Attempting to rebrand what it cannot deny, those in positions of power in academic, political, and regulatory arenas are Inventing new catch phrases including "longevity medicine," "successful aging," "healthy aging," and the like, in an effort to dilute and absorb the A4M's original definition of anti-aging medicine. Regardless of what name you use to describe “anti-aging medicine,” the clinical field was established in 1991 by the physicians of the American Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine, A4M.
Attributable to James Fries of Stanford University (California, USA), “successful aging” advances the concept of “morbidity compression,” that is, shortening the period of infirmity into a shorter period closer to death. In a recent interview, Dr. Fries9 admits that: “studies show that common sense moves like exercising and eating well really can help us stay healthier for longer.”
Similarly, Buck Institute of Aging (California, USA) researchers herald10 the merits of preventing the diseases of aging. The team submits that a “healthy diet and regular exercise … slow the metabolic and molecular causes of human aging.” They also warn that “our current health care approach is not sustainable. Targeting diseases has helped people live longer, [but] they are spending more years being sick with multiple disorders relating to aging, and that’s expensive.”
By whichever name it is referred, anti-aging medicine is the leading trend in consumer health and beauty today. The Natural Marketing Institute reports11 that consumer interest in anti-aging therapies has risen 50% in the past five years, with the leading concerns as: #1. mental health, #2 sleep; #3 energy; and #4 weight management. Similarly, Datamonitor, a market intelligence company, is11 “bullish about the [sector’s] prospects in the future.”
Over one-third of Americans want to reach 120 years or older. A survey by the Pew Research Center (Washington DC, USA) found12 that Americans considered 90 years as the median ideal lifespan. Baby Boomers – those born between 1946 and 1964, 10,000 of whom are retiring every day, want to live to be at least 84 years on-average. To achieve this goal, the Natural Marketing Institute reports13 that this group is specifically interested in self-care, thus driving the continued growth of the natural products and dietary supplements marketplaces.
The Biotech Factor
Today, we can detect, forestall, and prevent most forms of cardiovascular incidents, cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s Disease. Therapies to reverse such life-robbing conditions are on the horizon, thanks to biomedical and biotech R&D.
Medical knowledge doubles every three years. By 2017, we will know twice as much as we do today, by 2020 four-times, and so on. We submit that 2029 signals the arrival of the Biotech Singularity, when advancements in anti-aging and regenerative medicine reach maturity:
•Stem cell therapeutics, technologies aiming to beneficially alter the very basic cellular sources of dysfunctions, disorders, disabilities, and diseases
•Therapeutic cloning, technologies to develop ample sources of human cells, tissues, and organs for use in acute emergency care as well as the treatment of chronic, debilitating diseases
•Genetic engineering and genomics, advancements that permit the identification and alteration of genetics to ameliorate dysfunctions, disorders, disabilities, and diseases
•Nanotechnology, deploying micro- and molecular-sized tools to manipulate human tissue biology for microsurgical repair on a gross level, as well as microscopic nano-biology for repair at the most basic cellular level
Today, thanks to the Pharma pipeline14 of 465 drugs “targeted on 10 chronic conditions in seniors,” most adults in developed nations enjoy lifespans of around 80 years. With progress in stem cells, DNA repair, and telomerase, by 2029 lifespans of 120 years are realistically foreseeable. As genomic medicine and artificial organ technologies advance, by 2050 to 2095 we may achieve the 150 year lifespan. Past that, machine-based human enhancements may herald living 200-plus, disease-free years.
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