Shikei (Basic Planning)
Shikei refers to basic planning needed to initiate a move. This chapter discusses the five criteria for winning a battle, in an attempt to prevent frivolous wars.
Basic Military Power
The outcome of war can determine the fate of people and the nation’s existence. Whether or not to go to war must be carefully considered. In order to win a war, five basic conditions should be taken into account: path, heaven, land, leadership, and law.
Path refers to principles or policies. Only when intentions of the people and their sovereign coincide, the people will be willing to share their fate with the sovereign without being afraid of danger. This is a prerequisite to following the path to victory.
Heaven refers to situations or timing. This condition includes weather, season, occasion, and timing.
Land refers to environmental factors. This condition includes geographical factors such as distance, ruggedness, width, and height.
Leadership refers to a leader’s qualifications. This condition includes a leader’s virtuous qualities such as ingenuity, loyalty, benevolence, courage, and dignity.
Law refers to organization, discipline, and equipment. This condition includes military structure, discipline, and readiness in terms of equipment.
In order to determine if the above five conditions are met, you should examine your prospects by considering the seven comparisons below.
Which side has a better political system?
Which side has better commanders?
Which side enjoys more favorable situational and geographical factors?
Which side enforces the law more thoroughly?
Which side is stronger militarily?
Which side has better-trained soldiers?
Which side has a fairer system of reward and punishment?
When conditions are favorable to you, you must solidify your position by reinforcing the advantageous factors. You should also put more effort into enhancing the basic conditions. Since the basic conditions are constantly changing, you should be able to adapt yourself to any change in circumstances. Your response to the situation should change accordingly. There is no need to adhere to basic rules. If conditions are right, you will win; otherwise, you will lose. Do not fight when prospects of winning are poor.
To Fight is to Deceive
Flexibility is required in a battle. The key to victory is to focus on the enemy’s weaknesses and to take them by surprise.
1. Move closer while pretending to be moving away.
2. Hide your competence and feign incompetence.
3. Make something essential appear unnecessary.
4. Move away while pretending to be moving closer.
5. Lure your opponent by falsely showing that conditions are advantageous to him.
6. Defeat your adversary by creating confusion.
7. When things are going well for the enemy, withdraw and reposition yourself.
8. Avoid a head-on clash with powerful enemies.
9. Exhaust your opponent by infuriating him.
10. Throw the enemy off guard by keeping a low profile.
11. When your opponent is at rest, cause a commotion to exhaust him.
12. When the enemy demonstrates solidarity, break them apart.
A good strategy is to exploit the enemy’s weaknesses and take them by surprise. A strategy should not be predetermined in advance; rather, it should be adapted to changing circumstances.
Prospects
• Whether or not you will win depends on your prospects.
• Those who do not carefully examine their chances of winning will not win.
• If your prospects are excellent, you will win.
• When conditions are right, you will win; when conditions are not right, you will lose.
• When conditions are unfavorable, you cannot expect to win.
• Avoid fighting when your prospects are poor.
Tactics
When devising military tactics, plan for a quick war with meticulous preparations, which can achieve full effects with minimal sacrifice.
Short war
Since the cost of war can be enormous, you should strive to end the war quickly. Why do you need to end it quickly?
In a prolonged battle, troops must be mobilized on a large scale to provide logistic support for weapons and soldiers, and long-distance transportation of supplies will be needed.
An all-out war requires massive military spending domestically and internationally. Entertaining diplomatic envoys and supplying military goods, vehicles, and weapons will cost an enormous amount of money each day. A protracted war will not only exhaust troops and undermine their morale, but also make them prone to mistakes. Furthermore, such a war may ruin the national finances.
Depletion of national wealth will give other nations an opportunity to take advantage of the situation. When national wealth is depleted, no wise men will be able to fix the problem. There are successful examples of short war, but there are no such examples of prolonged war. Lengthy military campaigns will not bring any benefits to the nation.
Procurement
War can ruin national power because it requires long-distance transportation of military goods. This can place a heavy burden on people, cause inflation, and impoverish the nation. People will suffer from heavy taxation, leading to exhaustion of national power. Seventy percent of national income will go toward military spending, and sixty percent of the national budget will be lost due to military losses. A wise monarch avoids repeated transportation of additional weapons, troops, and goods long distances. He procures equipment in his home country and other goods locally in the enemy territory. Food procured locally in the hostile territory is worth as much as twenty times the food imported from the home country, saving transportation costs.
Compensation gained as a result of war is acceptable, but looting of the houses of local people to procure goods is unacceptable. Goods must be purchased at a fair price. When in the enemy territory, do not lay even a finger on the belongings of local people. Speak to them politely and calmly; do not strike or intimidate them.
Selling and buying should be done fairly. Return borrowed items. Pay for any damage done to people’s property. Do not damage agricultural crops. Do not terrorize women. Do not abuse prisoners of war. The act of looting in the enemy territory will result in the loss of support of local people. Strict discipline among troops will earn the trust of local people.
Victory enhances your power
• Provoke the feeling of antagonism toward the enemy among your troops.
• What drives soldiers to take up arms is the will to fight.
• The will to fight can be heightened by reward.
• Soldiers need to be assured that they will be recompensed for their achievements.
• Soldiers who render distinguished service should be the first to be rewarded.
• When you seize the enemy’s equipment, switch the banners to yours