Over the course of the next forty years, science is poised to create more knowledge than humans have created in all of recorded history, completely redefining our concepts about—and power over—life and the physical and mental worlds as we assume editing control over the genetic code and mastery in our understanding of the brain. One only has to recall the political battles fought over past scientific advances to see that we are in for a rocky ride. How that rush of new knowledge will impact life, how it will be applied through technology and law, and whether our societies and governments will be able to withstand the immense social and economic upheavals it will bring depends upon whether we can update our political process to accommodate it. Can we manage the next phase of the scientific revolution to our advantage, or will we become its unwilling victims?
If that were not enough, the explosion of information technology is creating a power struggle between individual privacy and the public good, and between the organizations—businesses, criminal enterprises, terrorist groups, and governments—who seek to use this new technology for influence and control. Sensing technology and robotics are threatening to replace millions of truck drivers and taxi drivers over the next decade, and to mechanize warfare with tiny autonomous robots that carry enough charge and intelligence to hunt and kill humans. These advancements have prompted many of the world’s leading scientists and engineers to warn that we must get ahead of artificial intelligence before it gets ahead of us.
As we are being overwhelmed by new scientific and technological developments, we also are facing a host of legacy challenges caused by commercialization of the incomplete scientific knowledge of the past. Thanks to early science, humans have prospered, but at a cost: significant climate disruption, unprecedented environmental degradation, massive extinction of other species, vast economic and power inequities, and a world armed to the teeth with the products of a military-industrial complex, including weapons that could destroy nearly all life on the planet.
Without a better way of incorporating science into our policymaking, democracy may ultimately fail its promise. We now have a population that we cannot support without destroying our environment—and the developing world is advancing by using the same model of unsustainable development. We are 100 percent dependent on science and technology to find a solution.
The Whipsaw of Science
Between these two areas—the wild future that is rapidly emerging and the unsustainable present whose repercussions we can no longer ignore—science and technology are poised to whipsaw us in the coming decades like never before. This has the potential to produce even more intense social upheaval and political paralysis at the very time we can least afford them.
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the problem is the dearth of conversation about the issues in the policymaking process. Imagine for a moment the potential science-themed questions one could ask a candidate for president, for example, or Parliament, or Congress, in a debate, forum, or news interview. There are multitudes of them, each with profound relevance to both today’s problems and those of the near future. Because of this, they are political, but they are rarely asked or answered in the political process. A small sampling could include:
What is your vision for maintaining a competitive edge as other countries work toward becoming global forces in science and technology? Will you support tripling our investment in mental-health research? Will you support using science to study the underlying causes of gun violence? What are your thoughts on balancing energy and the environment? How should we manage biosecurity in an age of rapid international travel while preserving civil liberties? What should we do about the world’s aging nuclear weapons? How will you tackle climate disruption? Do you support embryonic stem-cell research? What steps will you take to stop the collapse of pollinator colonies and promote pollinator health? What can we do to stimulate and incentivize the transition to a low-carbon economy? How should we handle immigration of highly skilled workers? In an era of intense droughts, what steps will you take to better manage our freshwater resources? What should we do to prevent ocean fisheries collapses? Will you support federal funding to make public broadband Internet universally available? Is Internet access a universal human right? How can we better protect the health of the world’s oceans? How can we improve science education? What steps can we take to better incorporate science information into our policymaking process? What will you do to slow the sixth mass extinction? Should we require children to be vaccinated against human papillomavirus, the leading cause of cervical cancer? Should only evolution be taught in science classes, or should intelligent design also be taught? When is it acceptable for a president or prime minister to implement policies that are contradicted by science? Should pharmaceutical companies be allowed to advertise on public airwaves? What will you do to incentivize the production of generic pharmaceuticals to prevent shortages and extreme price increases? Should foods made from genetically modified crops be labeled? Should we regulate the use of nanoparticles in the environment? Do you support federal renewable energy tax credits? What would you do to end the war on drugs and transition to treating drugs as a public-health problem? Will you support increased funding for curiosity-driven basic research? What steps would you take to repair the postdoctoral employment pipeline so that highly trained workers can get jobs in their fields? Will you support federal funding to study science denial and the threat it poses to democracy? Do you support banning the use of antibiotics in animal feed? What other steps should we take to stop the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria? Should pharmacists be allowed to deny prescriptions on the basis of their religion? Should public officials be allowed to deny services on the basis of their religion? Should the federal government regulate hydraulic fracturing? Should parents be required to vaccinate their children? Under what circumstances should there be an exemption? Do vaccines cause autism? Will you support adoption of new, cleaner nuclear reactors for power generation? Do you support water fluoridation? Will you prioritize an Apollo Project for clean energy innovation to stimulate the economy? Should we initiate a manned mission to Mars? What steps would you take to transition to a sustainable or circular economy? Do you oppose or support plans to mine copper and other nonferrous minerals in or near water-rich areas? How should we balance privacy with freedom and security on the Internet? Do you support reinstating the Fairness Doctrine in broadcast journalism? What steps would you take to control the global population? Do you support or oppose efforts to prosecute energy companies for funding denial of climate science? How can we stop antiscience disinformation campaigns from stalling public policy while protecting freedom of expression? Would you use foreign and economic policy to demand trading partners adopt uniform environmental standards? What will you do about anticipated economic disruptions posed by driverless vehicles and other robotic outsourcing of jobs? What is your position on deploying autonomous, artificially intelligent killer robots in the battlefield? Will you support restoring funding for the US Congress’s nonpartisan science advisory body, the Office of Technology Assessment? Should the morning-after pill be available off the shelf in pharmacies?
The length of the above sample is part of the point—the list is of course much longer—and it is growing as science advances. Yet almost none of these issues are discussed on the campaign trail. All of them evoke strong reactions, and, in each of these cases, policy has become stuck because of our broken way of incorporating evidence from science into the policymaking and political processes. Something’s got to change.
The Battle for the Future
Science and engineering are providing us with increasingly clear pictures of how to solve many of our challenges, but policymakers are increasingly unwilling to pursue the remedies that scientific evidence suggests. Instead, they take one of two routes: deny the science, or pretend the problems don’t exist. Vast areas of scientific knowledge and the people who work in them are under daily attack in a fierce worldwide war on science. Scientific advances in public health, biology and the environment are being resisted or rolled back. Political and religious institutions are pushing back against science and reason in a way that is threatening social and economic stability.
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