Example:• 73,000 troops for an Uncertain environment – with a lower bound of 52,000 if significant contractor logistics support can be employed and an upper bound of 94,000 if all support must be provided by the U.S. military • 148,000 for an Uncertain/High Threat environment – with a lower bound of 113,000 with more contractor logistics support and an upper bound of 182,000 with all U.S. military support.
Since we think that the environment is likely to be Hostile and that the intermediate level of support will be needed in the DPRK, our best estimate is a requirement for 188,000 U.S. ground troops.
That estimate could decrease to 148,000 if the risk of attack from DPRK military remnants decreases.
It could increase to 273,000 if the environment worsens to become High Threat. It is also useful to recall that these estimates are for the WMD-E mission only – they do not include force requirements for other missions, such as humanitarian assistance.
These different security levels pertain to the disposition of the DPRK security forces and any insurgent forces that might rise up.
Question 5
5. Observations on the DPRK Case Study
As described in this case study, WMD-E operations in the wake of a collapse of the DPRK.
1.What are the assumptions driving results?
– What does Your results suggest?
Answer
The WMD-E requirement is a nontraditional mission that creates a need for forces in addition to those required for joint operations, the force requirements of which might already be quite large.
The key assumptions driving results are the following:
– • the number and sizes of the WMD sites that are to be searched, the time needed to clear each site, and the priority and urgency of clearing them
– • the degree to which non-U.S. forces could or would be relied upon to service nuclear and nonnuclear sites
– • the ratio of support to mission troops
– • the degree of hostility in the operational environment, as well as the military threats WMD-E forces may face.
Our results suggest that even in cases where relatively favorable assumptions are made, the estimated U.S. forces required can still be quite substantial:
For example, in our DPRK base case, our estimate for the Uncertain environment – a relatively favorable environment for conducting WMD-E operations — required an estimated 73,000 troops,
while a more hostile operating environment or more expansive
missions required significantly more troops.
Actual WMD-E operations are likely to be far more challenging.
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CASE 2
Practical Speaking Training. Сrush the fear of public speaking
1. DRAW A CARTOON (Naval Admiral William McRaven`s addresses.)
What 1 lesson from this speech can you apply to your own life?
Directions:
Use the narrator’s descriptions to help you draw three Scenes and the characters.
– After you draw each scene, write what the characters talked or thought about.
– If the characters talk to each other, write their conversation in a speech bubble.
– Write a character’s thoughts about anything in a thought bubble.
Example: «If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.»
«There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain… Those students didn’ t under-stand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to suc-ceed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.»
As you brainstorm the story`s characters, think about which are their main
motivations. Which are their secondary ones?
Create your Speech.
The goal of this presentation is to show you how a speech success isn’t the re-sult of good luck, ability.
The speech success is simply a case of taking the steps required to introduce changes and bring revolution in every field, inspiration from your speech. How big your heart is.
Do you agree?
What were some of the main messages of this particular speech?
List the main points and themes.
– Oratory – What words or phrases helped to support the speech’s main pur-poses? In particular, which words or phrases evoked emotion, painted a strong image or are very descriptive. How do the words and phrases you’ve pointed out lend to (or distract from) the points being made?
– Emotion – What emotions do you believe Naval Admiral William McRaven was trying to evoke? Do you believe this was achieved? If so, what words in particular helped to convey emotion?
– Audience – To whom is Naval Admiral William McRaven trying to appeal? What words help you come to this conclusion?
– Delivery – What do you notice about Naval Admiral William McRaven `s use of elements like tone of voice, inflection, pause, pacing, rising and falling volume and body language to emphasize specific points in the speech?
There are many issues you can talk about at your inauguration. How do you pick one? A good idea is to look inside yourself and find out what you feel very deeply about. Maybe it’s the environment. Or you feel that downloading music on the Internet should be free. Your issue should reflect who you are and what you care