“ The official forecast brings the core of the intense hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico in 48 hours or so. It is worth noting that the guidance spread has decreased and most of the numerical model tracks are clustered between the Eastern Gulf Coast of Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi. The clustering increases the confidence in the forecast .”
She was taking aim on the Gulf Coast and building strength. At 4:00 a.m., Saturday, August 27th, Katrina was elevated to a Category 3 Hurricane. At 10:00 a.m., Hurricane Advisory 17 is issued stating that:
“…a Hurricane watch is in effect for the Southeastern coast of Louisiana, east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain... ”
Katrina Discussion Number 17 was issued warning of a high possibility that Katrina would likely reach a Category 5 status before landfall. Throughout the rest of the day and evening of August 27th, the Hurricane Liaison Coordination teams met with FEMA Headquarters staff in Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia.
Max Mayfield, Director of NOAA’s Tropical Predication Center/National Hurricane Center had briefings with Kathleen Blanco, Governor of Louisiana, Bill Filter, Chief of Operations of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency, Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi, and Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans.
At 10:00 p.m., August 27th, a Hurricane warning was issued:
“…for the North Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain stating…coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels…locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous battering waves…can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall ”
The warning clearly stated that,
“… Katrina is a dangerous storm and needs to be taken seriously. ”
Between 3:00 p.m. and 10 p.m., media alerts are implemented. At 12:04 a.m., Sunday, August 28th, 2005, Katrina was elevated to a Category 4 status with 145 miles per hour winds. At 6:15 a.m., Katrina is elevated to a Category 5 Hurricane. Hurricane Advisory Number 22 is issued:
“...Katrina…Now a potentially catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane… Headed for the Northern Gulf Coast…Maximum sustained winds are near 165 miles per hour with higher gusts. Katrina is a potentially catastrophic Category Five Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely in the next 24 hours.”
Hurricane Advisory Number 23 is issued at 10:00 a.m.:
“... Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina…Even stronger… Headed for the Northern Gulf Coast…Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 miles per hour…with higher wind gusts…Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 205 miles…Coastal storm surge flooding 0f 18 to 22 feet above normal tide levels…Locally as high as 28 feet along with large and dangerous battering waves…can be expected near and east of where the center makes landfall. ”
At 4:00 p.m., Hurricane Advisory 24 is issued adding that:
“…Katrina is moving towards the Northwest near 13 miles per hour and a gradual turn to the north is expected over the next 24 hours… Katrina is expected to make landfall at Category 4 or 5 intensity. Winds affecting the upper floors of high rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near the ground…Some levees in the Greater New Orleans area could be over-topped”.
At 10:00 p.m., Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 25 is issued:
“A Hurricane warning is in effect for the North Central Gulf Coast from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border…Including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.”
At 2:00 a.m., August 29th, Katrina is downgraded to a Category 4 Hurricane. At 6:10 a.m., Hurricane Katrina made her second landfall at the Category 3-4 threshold near Buras, Louisiana, with sustained winds of more in the 130 to 135 miles per hour range.
At 10:00 a.m., Hurricane Katrina makes final landfall at the Louisiana/Mississippi border classified as a Category 3 Hurricane. (Note that her category 3 status is a controversial subject, as many folks claimed that there was no viable method for actually measuring the accurate wind speed. Some interviewed have claimed that the lower wind velocity claim favored the insurance companies with respect to their pay-out requirements.) As she moved inland, her energy was quickly dissipated, no longer fed by the uncharacteristically warm Gulf waters.
Different modes of destruction occurred following Katrina’s passage as she made her journey. From her second landfall in Southeastern Louisiana, she moved northeastwardly along the eastern side of Louisiana and then easterly along the Mississippi Coastal regions.
In the areas where landfall occurred, the destruction was dominated by severe wind and storm surge damage. In areas further inland, the relative affects of wind damage became secondary to the surge-induced flooding as the levee and canal systems protecting the city of New Orleans became overwhelmed.
Katrina demonstrated higher than usual surges than would have been expected from her size, likely due to the huge area her mass encompassed as well as her forward movement being slow for a hurricane at about 11 to 13 miles per hour. Typically, hurricanes exhibit forward speeds of 15 to 20 miles per hour. Katrina’s slower forward speed enhanced her affect on the magnitude of the storm surges she generated.
A Tropical Cyclone Report regarding Katrina issued by the National Hurricane Center in December of 2005 indicated that while Katrina was a Category 3 as the center made its closest approach to New Orleans, the sustained wind speeds over New Orleans were likely weaker than the Category 3 level. The actual sustained wind speeds in New Orleans are subject to speculation since observations were sparse, due in part to the power failures that disabled the Automatic Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations in the area before peak wind conditions occurred. Measurements that were taken indicate wind strengths in Category 1 to Category 2 levels. It should be noted that wind velocities in hurricane winds increase dramatically with increasing elevation; thus, those speeds experienced on the ground are significantly lower than those experienced by high-rise buildings.
Precise measurements of the storm surge produced by Katrina along her path of destruction were complicated by many factors, including the widespread failures of tide gauges. Additionally, most of the buildings along the coast were completely destroyed, leaving relatively few structures within which to identify still-water marks.
Where reliable data was collected, it was determined that the storm surge was 24 to 28 feet along the Mississippi coast across a swath about 20 miles wide, centered roughly on the Bay of St. Louis, Mississippi. The maximum high water mark observation of the storm surge was 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, Mississippi. 17 to 22 feet surges were indicated along the eastern half of the Mississippi coast, roughly from Gulfport to Pascagoula.
It