The Incomplete Currency. Marcello Minenna

the stock of government bonds) and loans granted by the European Central Bank (€ billion–May 2012)

      Figure 5.22 Relative weight of “core” and “peripheral” areas of the Eurozone in relation to the stock of government bonds in the ECB balance sheet (2012)

      Figure 5.23 Transmission mechanism of the spread via the public auctions of government bonds

      Figure 5.24 Transmission mechanism of the spread via collateral discrimination on the interbank market

      Figure 5.25 Process of positive feedback in the transmission of the effects of the spread within the Eurozone (phase 1)

      Figure 5.26 Process of positive feedback in the transmission of the effects of the spread within the Eurozone (phase 2)

      Figure 5.27 Reduction of collateral turnover coefficients on the Repo market for the government bonds of the peripheral countries

      Figure 5.28 Process of positive feedback in the transmission of the effects of the spread within the Eurozone (phase 3)

      Figure 5.29 Comparison between the trend of the BTP-BUND spread and the trend of the FTSE Italy Banks index (Period 2008–2014)

      Figure 5.30 Stabilisation of the spread on the interbank channel due to the reduction of collateral available

      Figure 5.31 Process of positive feedback in the transmission of the effects of the spread within the Eurozone (phase 3)

      Figure 5.32 The “factors of combustion” of the divergence process and their interactions

      Figure 5.33 Amount of issuances of Portuguese government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market (period 2008–2015)

      Figure 5.34 Amount of issuances of Portuguese government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market with evidence of the period of financial assistance by the EFSF/ESM (Period 2008–2015)

      Figure 5.35 Amount of issuances of Irish government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market (period 2009–2015)

      Figure 5.36 Amount of issuances of Irish government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market with evidence of the period of financial assistance by the EFSF/ESM (Period 2009–2015)

      Figure 5.37 Amount of issuances of Spanish government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market (Period 2008–2015)

      Figure 5.38 Amount of issuances of Spanish government bonds and average yield recorder in the secondary market with evidence of the period of divergence attributable to the “auction effect” (period 2008–2015)

      Figure 5.39 Amount of issuances of Italian government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market (Period 2008–2015)

      Figure 5.40 Amount of issuances of Italian government bonds and average yield registered in the secondary market with evidence of the period of divergence attributable to the “collateral discrimination” effect (period 2008–2015)

      Figure 5.41 Amount of issuances of Italian government bonds and average yield recorded in the secondary market with evidence of the period of divergence attributable to the “public auction” effect (period 2008–2015)

      Figure 6.1 The functioning of the “Gold Standard” fixed exchange rate agreement

      Figure 6.2 The functioning of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate agreement

      Figure 6.3 Speculative attack on the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate agreement–Phase 1 (1968–July 1971)

      Figure 6.4 Speculative attack on the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate agreement–Phase 2 (1968–July 1971)

      Figure 6.5 Speculative attack on the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate agreement–Phase 3 (August 1971)

      Figure 6.6 Evolution of the 5-year Credit Default Swaps spread for Spain, Germany, Italy and France (Period 2009–2014)

      Figure 6.7 1-year default probability implicit in CDS spreads for selected Eurozone countries (August 2011)

      Figure 6.8 Price and probability distribution of an Italian Government bond (BTP) by way of example in the presence of devaluation risk of the new Italian lira following the exit of Italy from the Euro

      Figure 6.9 Explanation of the synchronous trend of Italian BTP yields and CDS spread

      Figure 6.1 °Comparison between the trends of the yields on 5-year government bonds and of the 5-year CDS spread in Germany (2010–2014)

      Figure 6.11 Example on the price and probability distribution of a German Government bond (Bund) in presence of a risk of revaluation of the new German mark following the exit of Germany from the Euro

      Figure 6.12 Explanation of the decoupled trend of Bund yields and CDS spread in Germany

      Figure 6.13 The evolution of the 5-year quanto spread for Spain, Germany, Italy and France (2009–2014)

      Figure 6.14 Evolution of the 5-year probability of the Euro break-up implied in the quanto spreads of Spain, Germany, Italy and France (2009–2014)

      Figure 6.15 Extent of government debts in relation to GDP (Eurozone: year 2014)

      Figure 6.16 Government debt and GDP for several EU countries (2014 in € billion)

      Figure 6.17 National bonds issued on foreign markets (% on the overall issued amount–March 2014)

      Figure 6.18 Restriction on the issuance of public debt without standard CACs for Eurozone countries

      Figure 6.19 Estimates of the Deficit/GDP ratio for 2014 (peripheral countries)

      Figure 6.20 Exports and Imports in terms of GDP for several EU countries–2013

      Figure 6.21 Share of exports to the Eurozone: period–2008 2013

      Figure 7.1 Contribution (€ billion) of the various Member States of the Monetary Union to the EFSF

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