Nezha laughed out loud. “We’re trying to win this simulation, idiot.”
Irjah motioned for Nezha to be silent. “Runin. Please elaborate.”
“It’s not a victory either way,” said Rin. “But if the costs are so high, I would throw all my tiles in. This way they die, and we lose half our troops but no more. Sunzi writes that no battle takes place in isolation. This is just one small move in the grand scheme of the war. The numbers you’ve given us indicate that these Federation battalions are massive. I’m guessing they constitute a large percentage of the entire Federation army. So if we give up some of our own troops, we lessen their advantage in all subsequent battles.”
“You’d rather kill your own people than let the opponent’s army walk away?” Irjah asked.
“Killing isn’t the same as letting die,” Rin objected.
“They’re casualties nonetheless.”
Rin shook her head. “You don’t let an enemy walk away if they’ll certainly be a threat to you later. You get rid of them. If they’re that far inland, they know the lay of almost the entire country. They have a geographical advantage. This is our one chance to take out the enemy’s greatest fighting force.”
“Sunzi said to always give the enemy a way out,” Irjah said.
Rin privately thought that this was one of Sunzi’s stupider principles, but hastily pulled together a counterargument. “But Sunzi didn’t mean to let them take that way out. The enemy just has to think the situation is less dire than it is, so they don’t grow desperate and do stupid and mutually destructive things.” Rin pondered for a moment. “I suppose they could try to swim.”
“She’s talking about decimating entire villages!” Venka protested. “You can’t just break a dam like that. Dams take years to rebuild. The entire river delta will flood, not just that valley. You’re talking about famine. Dysentery. You’ll mess with the agriculture of the entire region, create a whole host of problems that mean decades of suffering down the line—”
“Problems that can be solved,” Rin maintained stubbornly. “What was your solution, to let the Federation walk free into the heartland? Fat lot of good the agricultural regions will do you when your whole country’s been occupied. You would offer up the whole country to them on a platter.”
“Enough, enough.” Irjah slammed the table to silence them. “Nobody wins this one. You’re dismissed for today. Runin, I want to have a word. My office.”
“Where did you come by this solution?” Irjah held up a booklet.
Rin recognized her scrawling handwriting at the top.
Last week Irjah had assigned them to write essay responses to another simulated quagmire—a counterfactual scenario where the Militia had lost popular support for a war of resistance against the Federation. They couldn’t rely on peasants to supply soldiers with food or animal feed, could not use peasant homes as lodging without forceful entry. In fact, outbreaks of rebellion in rural areas added several layers of complication to coordinating troop movements.
Rin’s solution had been to burn down one of the minor island villages.
The twist was that the island in question belonged to the Empire.
“The first day of Yim’s class we talked about how losing Speer ended the Second Poppy War,” she said.
Irjah frowned. “You based this essay on the Speerly Massacre?”
She nodded. “Losing Speer during the Second Poppy War pushed Hesperia over the edge—made them uncomfortable enough that they didn’t want Mugen expanding farther into the continent. I thought the destruction of another minor island might do the same for the Nikara population, convince them that the real enemy was Mugen. Remind them what the threat was.”
“Surely Militia troops attacking a province of the Empire would send the wrong message,” Irjah objected.
“They wouldn’t know it was Militia troops,” she said. “We would pose as a Federation squadron. I suppose I should have been clearer about that in the essay. Better still if Mugen just went ahead and attacked the island for us, but you can’t leave these things to chance.”
He nodded slowly as he perused her essay. “Crude. Crude, but clever. Do you think that’s what happened?”
It took her a moment to understand his question. “In this simulation, or during the Poppy Wars?”
“The Poppy Wars.” Irjah tilted his head, watching her carefully.
“I’m not entirely sure that’s not what happened,” Rin said. “There’s some evidence that the attack on Speer was allowed to succeed.”
Irjah’s expression betrayed nothing, but his fingers tapped thoughtfully against his wooden desk. “Explain.”
“I find it very difficult to believe that the strongest fighting force in the Militia could have been annihilated so easily. That, and the island was suspiciously poorly defended.”
“What are you suggesting?”
“Well, I’m not certain, but it seems as if—I mean, maybe someone on the inside—a Nikara general, or someone else who was privy to certain information—knew about the attack on Speer but didn’t alert anyone.”
“Now why would we have wanted to lose Speer?” Irjah asked quietly.
She took a moment to formulate a coherent argument. “Maybe they knew Hesperia wouldn’t stand for it. Maybe they wanted to generate popular support to distract from the Red Junk movement. Maybe because we needed a sacrifice, and Speer was expendable in a way other regions weren’t. We couldn’t let any Nikara die. But Speerlies? Why not?”
She had been grasping at straws when she had started to speak, but the moment she said it, her answer sounded startlingly plausible to her.
Irjah looked deeply uncomfortable. “You must understand that this is a very awkward part of Nikan’s history,” he said. “The way that the Speerlies were treated was … regrettable. They were used and exploited by the Empire for centuries. Their warriors were regarded as little more than vicious dogs. Savages. Until Altan came to study at Sinegard, I don’t believe anyone really thought the Speerlies were capable of sophisticated thought. Nikan does not like to speak of Speer, and for good reason.”
“Yes, sir. It was just a theory.”
“Anyhow.” Irjah leaned back in his chair. “That isn’t all I wanted to discuss. Your strategy in the valley worked for the purposes of the exercise, but no competent ruler would ever give those orders. Do you know why?”
She contemplated in silence for a minute. “I confused tactics with grand strategy,” she said finally.
Irjah nodded. “Elaborate.”
“The tactic would have worked. We might have even won the war. But no ruler would have chosen that option, because the country would have fallen apart afterward. My tactic doesn’t grant the possibility of peace.”
“Why is that?” Irjah pressed.
“Venka was right about destroying the agricultural heartland. Nikan would suffer famine for years. Rebellions like the Red Junk Opera would spring up everywhere. People would think it was the Empress’s fault that they were starving. If we used my strategy, what would happen next is probably a civil war.”
“Good,” said Irjah. He raised his eyebrows. “Very good. You know, you are astoundingly bright.”
Rin tried to conceal her delight, though she felt a flutter of warmth spread across her body.
“Should you perform well in the Trials,” Irjah continued, “you might do well as a Strategy apprentice.”
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