“The United States, China, and Russia are the three dominant players on the world stage. Everyone else is a second-, third-, or fourth-tier player, frankly not worthy of today’s discussion. The United States has a four-year planning horizon. Russia operates under a ten-year plan though they go to press with only half of it. The Chinese have a one-hundred-year plan unavailable for viewing by anyone outside Communist Party leadership or the People’s Liberation Army.
“The US owns the most powerful military machine and the second-largest nuclear arsenal. The Chinese are second in military strength. The Russians are weak, nearly bankrupt, and disorganized. But they have the largest nuclear arsenal.
“The US has the most robust economy. The Chinese are second, with the Russians being broke and needing a higher oil price to meet ends.
“All three countries are exploring bio-weapons. Each has a significant cyberattack initiative and has joined the race to develop hypersonic missiles that travel at five times the speed of sound. The US has a definite edge in military technology because our technical universities – schools like MIT, the University of Chicago, Stanford, and Cal Tech – cooperate closely with the Department of Defense. That said, the Chinese have infiltrated our universities with PhD-level grad students, many of whom work for the PLA.
“The unknown frontier of war combines cyber with artif-i cial intelligence. An unstoppable trend is AI-controlled robots trained to kill and make autonomous decisions on taking life in battle. There are no ethics roadmaps in place to constrain this from happening. The Chinese are ten to fifteen years ahead of everyone else in this technology. ”
I can see that everyone in the room is fully engaged and paying attention – even Grecu.
“Recently, there have been reports of a lab in China working on coronaviruses with our own National Institutes of Health. That same Chinese lab has military connections.
“We need to stop believing that China is our friend. It is not. The nation with the most powerful bio-weapon capability will own a significant competitive advantage. The country with the best cyber-hacking capability could shut down a large piece of the world, then blow it up with hypersonic missiles.
“Given political trends and money flow, the Chinese will have the world’s strongest military machine and economy within the next seven years. It’s inevitable – knowing this, neither the US nor Russia trusts the Chinese. The Americans and Russians will eventually cut a deal to hedge world domination by China. It will be an uneasy alliance based on fear, not on love. Usually, those don’t last.”
I now see folks creeping forward to the edge of the table. Romanians tend to have a parochial, narrow view of the world. In this room, they are beginning to see doom. To make matters worse, I’m just warming up.
“Many focus on the 9-dash lines of the Chinese growth plan. There used to be 11-dash lines on that map. Politics interfered, and the Chinese only recently started advertising 9-lines. Their One-Hundred-Year Plan talks about 15-lines. You should expect the Chinese to take hundreds of islands in the Senkaku chain away from Japan. It’s a fish- and oil-rich territory and the Chinese don’t have enough food or oil. The Japanese lack nuclear weapons and have only a treaty with distant Americans to defend them. No leverage at all. The Senkaku Islands go to the Chinese.
“Taiwan falls, followed by many islands in Indonesia, which the Chinese have gradually populated for the past decade. The subsequent acquisition will be their next-door neighbor, oil-rich Brunei, a country having no solid allies. Ninety percent of its proven oil reserves are untapped. Finally, the Chinese will take Australia, which has the raw materials to power its manufacturing industries.
“China’s destiny is to become the world’s wealthiest nation. Game theory and military simulations indicate that the targeted countries can do little, if anything, to stop them, including the United States.
“As for the United States, we are tied up in knots by our politics and a flawed code of law. We will not be able to conquer our way to growth. So we must form alliances. Since many countries have nuclear weapons, nuclear game theory is nearing center stage. Expect the unexpected. A Muslim terrorist organization will eventually launch a nuclear-tipped missile, making politics more fragile.
“The US recently formed a sixth fighting force, the U.S. Space Force, independently funded and managed. It is not part of our Air Force. Internal politics. The impetus was Russian and Chinese advances in laser weapons capable of taking down our satellites or even a space station. We believe long-term independence for the US comes from winning the race to deep space, and I expect the U.S. Space Force to take the lead in our military organization structure.
“Here is the good news, well, at least for us: Northrop Grumman has completed production of our first hypersonic missile. Lockheed Martin is close behind. The Chinese will get nervous when the Russians go live with their missiles. A future alliance with the US and Russia then becomes possible. The Chinese are obsessed with catching up.
“Russian strategy? You can expect the Russians to take Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and countries bordering the Black Sea, including Romania. At some point, the Russians get strong enough that NATO can’t stand in the way. Once they control the North Atlantic and the Black Sea, their final frontier is the Arctic Circle. So the Russians will move to control the Arctic oil treasures. Whether Sun Tsu, Miyamoto Musashi, Attila the Hun, Napoleon Bonaparte, or Julius Caesar, all great military minds know you must take the high ground.
“The only territory that is higher is space. Three countries will land on Mars, the foothold for reaching deep space within the following twenty years. The US, Russia, and China are investing heavily to be first. Each will soon have its own inter-terrestrial space station.”
“Let me guess,” Grecu starts. “The US wins that race?’
I nod in confirmation.
“The US will win this race and eventually look to the Space Railway tether into deep space, where they form alliances with alien civilizations.
“Finally, on the ground, cyber hacking will soon include quantum physics principles.” I try not to look at Grecu after this comment, but I can feel his eyes on me. I’d rather not touch more on that controversy in this audience.
“That, gentlemen – and even more importantly, lady – is my view of the world and where we are heading.”
Grecu speaks first. “General, do you mean to say the Russians are coming for us?” His eyes are fierce, and his tone is elevated.
“Yes, no question. Controlling the Black Sea and Northern Atlantic ports will allow them to control the energy markets and build wealth. All of Europe will critically rely on Russia for energy. They have undoubtedly cut a quiet deal with Turkey to remain on the sidelines concerning Romania. Let’s not forget that Putin is a KGB grad. His lifelong goal is to put the Soviet Union back together.”
Grecu can’t help himself and slams his fist on the table. “Let them try!”
I calm him. “General Grecu, the US shares your concern. Operation Bright Light began our relationship. You earned more respect when you contributed soldiers to our surge in Iraq. I suggest both countries continue to expand this friendship.”
Helsing breaks in: “Gentlemen, our time is up. I suggest we take a ten-minute break before beginning our next section. We could spend hours discussing the fine points of General Thomas’s views. For now, I want to thank him and suggest we further discuss his views privately.” Helsing approaches me, hand warmly extended.
“General Thomas, thank you. Please extend our best wishes to your colleagues at the CIA and the Department of Defense. We look forward to building the relationship.”
Helsing leaves the room. He has a few urgent wake-up phone calls to make. The second half of our board meeting will begin ten minutes after we take a break.
Alina Balan rises to show me out. She takes my arm; what? and propels me to the reception area.
Pleasantly Aggressive
“General Thomas, I have so many questions