Table of Contents
1 Cover
5 Preface: Why I Wanted to Write This Book
6 Introduction: How to Approach Company Analysis Structure of this Book
8 Part I: Lessons from the Past: My Story as an Analyst
9 Part II: Laying the Groundwork Chapter 1: Understand the ‘Character’ of the Industry Six Basic Steps for Forecasting Industry Growth TAM Growth Rate Ten Additional Angles for Testing Forecasts Chapter 2: Assess the Earnings Drivers in Different Industries Hyper Growth – Internet, Fintech, Biotechnology Secular Growth – Software, Medical Technology Cyclical – Capital Goods, Transport, Energy, Commodities, Chemicals, Autos Cyclical Growth – Semiconductor, Electronic Components, Technology Hardware, Clean Energy Stable – Consumer Staples, Retail, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceutical, Media, Business Services Interest Rate Sensitive – REITs, Property Developers, Banks, Insurance Regulated – Utilities, Telecoms Chapter 3: Identify the ‘Personality’ of the Company Product and Service Origin and History Management Profile Ownership Structure Value Chain Competitive Moat Track Record of Strategic Decisions Corporate Culture by Country Earnings Guidance Track Record Controversy Record Management Quality – A Framework
10 Part III: Analyse and Apply the Findings Chapter 4: Put Findings into the Earnings Model Segmental Revenue Forecast Income Statement Forecast Balance Sheet Forecast Cash Flow Forecast How to Put Cyclicality into Long‐term Earnings Forecasts Quarterly Forecasts can be Helpful A Birdseye View is Helpful Financial and Property Sectors are Unique Chapter 5: Summarize All Thoughts A Suggested Method for Creating a Practical Scorecard Chapter 6: Find the Appropriate Valuation Framework Hyper Growth – Internet, Biotechnology Secular Growth – Software, Medical Technology Cyclical – Capital Goods, Transport, Energy, Commodities, Chemicals, Autos Cyclical Growth – Semiconductor, Technology Hardware, Clean Energy Stable – Consumer Staples, Retail, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceutical, Media, Business Services Interest Rate Sensitive – Banks, Emerging Market Banks, Insurance, Property, REITs Regulated – Utilities, Telecoms Conglomerates Additional Considerations on Valuation Chapter 7: Differentiation versus Street Is the View Actually Different? Where is the Difference? What is Driving the Difference? Value of an Undifferentiated Conclusion
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Part IV: What to Research and How to Power the Analysis
Chapter 8: How to Generate Exciting Ideas
1: Burning Questions
2: Products to Solve Problems
3: Forgotten New Technologies
4: