THE BELLWETHER
THE BELLWETHER
Why Ohio Picks the President
KYLE KONDIK
OHIO UNIVERSITY PRESS
ATHENS
Ohio University Press, Athens, Ohio 45701
© 2016 by Ohio University Press
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To Mom and Dad
CONTENTS
ONE. Swing States, Bellwethers, and the Nation’s Shrinking Political Middle
TWO. Ohio at the Head of the Flock
FOUR. The Civil War at the Ballot Box, 1896–1932
FIVE. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Nixon—but Not Taft, 1936–1972
SIX. Obama Rewrites the Carter-Clinton Playbook, 1976–2012
SEVEN. Searching for the Bellwether’s Bellwether
CONCLUSION. Will Ohio Remain a Bellwether (and Will It Lose Anything If It Doesn’t)?
ILLUSTRATIONS
FIGURE
MAPS
3.2. Ohio settlement patterns
4.1. The 1863 Ohio gubernatorial election
4.2. The 1896 presidential election in Ohio
5.1. The 1948 presidential election in Ohio
5.2. The 1960 presidential election in Ohio
6.1. The 1976 presidential election in Ohio
6.2. The 2012 presidential election in Ohio
7.1. Democratic presidential performance by Ohio county, 2000–2012
TABLES
2.1. Electoral record of the states over the last 30 elections, 1896–2012
2.2. States with presidential deviations less than five in presidential elections, 1896–2012
2.3. States’ average deviation from two-party presidential vote, 1896–2012
2.4. States providing decisive electoral vote, 1896–2012
7.1. Average two-party presidential deviation by county and number of times each county has voted with the state and national winners, 1896–2012
7.2. Combined 2000–2012 presidential voting by county blocs
7.3. The Purple Enclaves
7.4. The Blue Islands
7.5. The Red Reach
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
While many provided me with invaluable assistance with The Bellwether, one person stands above the rest: Thomas Suddes, my former professor at Ohio University and the foremost authority on Ohio politics.
This project came together quite suddenly in early 2015, but many of the stories and concepts within it I discussed with Tom during the past several years over lunches and dinners across the state of Ohio. Most of what I know about Ohio politics comes from Tom: he is a great teacher, a great mentor, and a great friend.
Tom not only helped me develop the ideas for the book but also was instrumental in introducing me to Ohio University Press. I thank Press Director Gillian Berchowitz for giving me the opportunity to write this book, as well as the many members of the Press who helped produce it. I am honored to be publishing this book under my alma mater’s imprint.
I also owe a deep amount of gratitude to Mike Dawson, who allowed me to use maps throughout this book from his excellent site, OhioElectionResults.com, and who also provided me with great details about the state’s voting patterns.
My colleagues at the University of Virginia Center for Politics supported me in putting together this book, particularly Director Larry J. Sabato as well as Geoffrey Skelley, Ken Stroupe, and Mary Daniel Brown. I am truly fortunate to work with such smart and talented people.
There are many others who provided valuable insight into Ohio and national politics or who otherwise assisted me with the production of this book. They are, in alphabetical order: Alan Abramowitz, Alex Beres, David Byler, Mike Curtin, Jo Ann Davidson, Kevin DeWine, Brad Fingeroot, Joe Hallett, Brent Larkin, Henry Olsen, Eric Rademacher, Jeff Reed, Darrel Rowland, Jacob Smith, Bob Taft, Sean