Fateful Transitions
FATEFUL TRANSITIONS
How Democracies Manage Rising Powers, from the Eve of World War I to China’s Ascendance
Daniel M. Kliman
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA PRESS
PHILADELPHIA
A volume in the Haney Foundation Series, established in 1961 with the generous support of Dr. John Louis Haney
Copyright © 2015 University of Pennsylvania Press
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations used for purposes of review or scholarly citation, none of this book may be reproduced in any form by any means without written permission from the publisher.
Published by
University of Pennsylvania Press
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-4112
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kliman, Daniel M.
Fateful transitions : how democracies manage rising powers, from the eve of World War I to China’s ascendance / Daniel M. Kliman. — 1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index
ISBN 978-0-8122-4653-7 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. International relations. 2. International relations—Case studies. 3. Security, International. 4. Security, International—Case studies. 5. Great Powers. 6. Great Powers—Case studies.
JZ1242 .K59 2014
| 327.09'04 | 2014012349 |
Contents
Chapter 1: Fateful Transitions
Chapter 2: Power Shifts and Strategy
Chapter 3: Pax Britannica Eclipsed
Chapter 6: Emerging Superpower
Chapter 8: Implications for the Twenty-First Century
Appendix 2: Coding Checks and Balances
Appendix 3: Measuring Freedom of the Press
Abbreviations
| ASAT | Anti-Satellite |
| ASEAN | Association of Southeast Asian Nations |
| DPJ | Democratic Party of Japan |
| EEZ | Exclusive Economic Zone |
| G-20 | Group of 20 |
| GDP | Gross Domestic Product |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| JMSDF | Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces |
| JSDF | Japan Self-Defense Forces |
| LDP | Liberal Democratic Party |
| MFA | Ministry of Foreign Affairs (China) |
| MMCA | Military Maritime Consultative Agreement |
| MTCR | Missile Technology Control Regime |
| NATO | North Atlantic Treaty Organization |
| NIC | National Intelligence Council |
| PLA | People’s Liberation Army |
| QDR | Quadrennial Defense Review |
| R&D | Research and Development |
| RAF | Royal Air Force |
| SED | Strategic Economic Dialogue |
| S&ED | Strategic and Economic Dialogue |
| S&T | Science and Technology |
| UN | United Nations |
| USSR | Union of Soviet Socialist Republics |
| WTO | World Trade Organization |
Chapter 1
Fateful Transitions
An age-old question—how to manage the rise of new powers—looms large for the United States, Europe, and much of Asia. Although the nature of the emerging international order remains unclear, the geopolitics of the twenty-first century has earlier parallels. Since the late 1800s, the world’s major democracies have repeatedly navigated the ascendance of other nations. The choices made by democratic leaders during these fateful transitions have profoundly shaped the course of history. On the positive side, these decisions paved the way for the Anglo-American rapprochement; on the negative side, the path taken culminated in World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. This track record of limited success should give today’s leaders pause as they confront a world increasingly